Delaware Park picks and analysis: June 26, 2024
The Biz- June 26, 2024
Picks and analysis for today’s card from Delaware Park:
- DATE/POST TIME: June 26, 2024/12:30 p.m.
- RACES ON CARD: 8
- CARRYOVERS: None
PICKS GRID
| RACE 1 | ||
| WIN | 2. Clever Tiger | Hung out wide in last; makes second off the bench |
| PLACE | 4. Big Tone C | |
| SHOW | 5. Skull Runner | |
| RACE 2 | ||
| WIN | 7. Radieux | Couldn’t go with 6-5 fave in last |
| PLACE | 3. Two Thirty Five | Hoping for more value after clunker in last versus better; winner repeated |
| SHOW | 5. Hollywood Closeup | |
| RACE 3 (turf) | ||
| WIN | 4. Hendrickson | Top two choices in here both exit races where the pace scenario worked well for them but couldn’t seal it; could make #1 the value |
| PLACE | 5. Holla At Your Boy | |
| SHOW | 1. Country Charlie | |
| RACE 4 | ||
| WIN | 6. Makemebelieve | Troubled trip in last and winner repeated in minor stake at Prairie Meadows |
| PLACE | 5. Principia | Good-looking winner of local allowance contest in last for third win in four |
| SHOW | 1. Carroll Girl | |
| RACE 5 (turf) | ||
| WIN | 2. Sheriff Joe | Class dropper from Stidham barn |
| PLACE | 5. Go Take Charge | Good setup two back, couldn’t quite get it done |
| SHOW | 11. Uwasnreddi | Gelded, blinkers, and Lasix on – look for step forward soon |
| RACE 6 | ||
| WIN | 5. Mackman | Pretty much has to be one of this trio; lightly raced sort owns right to improve |
| PLACE | 6. Play Hard | First since September; Capuano barn torrid at DEL |
| SHOW | 4. Goodafternoonoscar | Speed figs say he’s a winner here, but 0-for-9 record at this level urges caution |
| RACE 7 (turf) | ||
| WIN | 5. Merrychill | Stuck with it in paceless affair in turf bow |
| PLACE | 6. Krone | Big effort to graduate in last but none of seven to run back has won since |
| SHOW | 9. Rebel Consort | |
| RACE 8 | ||
| WIN | 6. Dia de Sol | Controlling speed in second off the bench |
| PLACE | 2. Murumbi | Closing in slow early-fast late race from which winner moved up and won again |
| SHOW | 3. Party Monster |
RACING NOTES
- Jose Batista posted a riding hat trick Saturday, none on the favorite. He’s 8-for-41 at the meet, which equates to 1.92 wins above expectations per 50 starts…
- Trainer Juan Arriagada won twice. He’s 8-for-25 at the meet (2.29 wins above expecations per 25 starts)…
- Two horses were claimed Saturday, and the claim of a third, Exit Right, was voided by the state vet. Exit Right finished third in a starter/optional claiming contest…
CHECK OUT THE LATEST OFF TO THE RACES RADIO!
HANDICAPPING NOTES
The early Pick 5, with 15% takeout, has drawn around $100,000 in wagering on the Wednesday card the last couple of weeks, so we’ll give that a look. In the first, a lower level maiden event, you can make a case for our top three and also for #3 Sometimes I Do for trainer Sam Davis. This one’s debut wasn’t awful, and while the follow-up wasn’t good, the return to the main track ought to help. With just two races under his belt, he still has the right to improve… In race two, the horse not in our top three that figures to get a lot of attention is #4 Spectrier, who just missed at this level two back. But it feels like the key to the race is what you do with #3 Two Thirty Five. We’re using him, but we’re largely doing it on faith; he’s run two straight clunkers with a three-month break between them; those races won’t be good enough here. On the other hand, he’s not that far removed from races that would easily win this one and stretches out to his preferred two-turn trip…
In the third, as noted above, both of our top pair got pretty good setups in last, and neither could deliver. That points you in the direction of either #1 Country Charlie or #2 Street Rockin. The former ran big two back when fighting for the lead on a fast pace in a race that’s produced two next-out winners. HIs follow-up wasn’t as good, but a return to that two-back race would put him right there, possibly at a price (10-1 morning line). The latter ran evenly last out and makes his third start off the bench… The lightly raced #2 Blaze On has won three of four career starts and tackles her toughest task to date in the fourth race. The somewhat unusual hybrid condition puts horses like her — now in the four-life condition — at something of a class disadvantage versus veterans that may be quite a ways removed from running for the $16,000 tag that opens the starter condition… The other horse who’s a little interesting in the fifth is #3 Pineapple Lane, dropping from special weight company to maiden $16,000. She showed a little bit of tactical speed in her first dirt outing and caught a challenging group: two of the top three were $250,000+ auction purchases. A win here would give trainer Daisy Olivo her first career victory…
Exotics
Early Pick 5 Play
RACE 1: 2, 4, 5
RACE 2: 3, 7
RACE 3: 1, 4, 5
RACE 4: 1, 2, 5, 6
RACE 5: 2, 5
COST: $72
RACING DATA
All jockeys who have made at least 20 starts at Delaware Park in 2024; those with positive “wins above expectations” have won more race than their odds would have predicted, while those with negative wins above expectations have won fewer.
Delaware jockeys wins above expectations
| Jockey | Wins above/50 starts | Starts | Wins | Expected wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camacho Samuel Jr | 6.90 | 15 | 6 | 3.93 |
| Ramos Yabriel O | 6.51 | 33 | 9 | 4.71 |
| Martinez Francisco | 6.30 | 51 | 16 | 9.57 |
| Cotto P L Jr | 5.01 | 30 | 6 | 3.00 |
| Haddock Dexter | 3.12 | 30 | 8 | 6.13 |
| Maldonado Gabriel | 2.44 | 178 | 47 | 38.30 |
| Castillo A | 2.26 | 16 | 3 | 2.28 |
| Rodriguez Jamie | 1.87 | 267 | 82 | 72.00 |
| Silvera Ruben | 1.44 | 26 | 5 | 4.25 |
| Cruz Angel | 1.42 | 21 | 4 | 3.40 |
| Luna Obregon Paul Angelo | 1.22 | 127 | 11 | 7.90 |
| Curtis Ben | 0.91 | 22 | 4 | 3.60 |
| Hernandez Julio A | 0.52 | 352 | 62 | 58.32 |
| Lundie Kevin | 0.37 | 41 | 2 | 1.70 |
| Astudillo Felix | 0.07 | 193 | 16 | 15.73 |
| Sanchez Mychel J | -0.09 | 40 | 7 | 7.07 |
| Cedeno Carol | -0.12 | 304 | 39 | 39.72 |
| Rowland Madeline | -0.16 | 20 | 2 | 2.07 |
| Robles Ederik O | -0.50 | 257 | 42 | 44.55 |
| Villalobos Ismerio | -0.61 | 38 | 3 | 3.46 |
| Batista Jose A | -0.68 | 205 | 27 | 29.78 |
| Centeno D E | -0.84 | 158 | 24 | 26.67 |
| Torrealba JG | -0.89 | 20 | 3 | 3.36 |
| Hiraldo John | -0.90 | 192 | 14 | 17.46 |
| Crispin Alexander | -0.97 | 241 | 22 | 26.67 |
| Villasmil Edgar | -1.00 | 79 | 3 | 4.58 |
| Gomez Kevin | -1.01 | 183 | 24 | 27.70 |
| Trotman Keimar | -1.20 | 42 | 1 | 2.01 |
| Mena Raul E | -1.34 | 169 | 15 | 19.52 |
| Rodriguez Angel R | -1.46 | 39 | 4 | 5.14 |
| Hernandez Andy | -1.75 | 18 | 2 | 2.63 |
| Russell Sheldon | -2.18 | 17 | 2 | 2.74 |
| Barbosa Jeiron | -2.25 | 25 | 2 | 3.13 |
| Evans Cecily | -2.31 | 23 | 2 | 3.06 |
| Casique Ubardo | -2.37 | 20 | 0 | 0.95 |
| Ruiz Jorge | -2.52 | 47 | 7 | 9.37 |
| Pennington F | -2.72 | 17 | 2 | 2.92 |
| Iorio Melissa | -5.43 | 20 | 0 | 2.17 |
| Marin Samuel | -5.98 | 37 | 1 | 5.42 |
| Rendon Jairo | -7.29 | 22 | 1 | 4.21 |
| Adorno Abner | -7.68 | 20 | 1 | 4.07 |
All trainers who have made at least 10 starts at Delaware Park in 2024; those with positive “wins above expectations” have won more races than their odds would have predicted, while those with negative wins above expectations have won fewer.
| Trainer | Wins above/25 starts | Starts | Wins | Expected wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kreiser Timothy C | 6.19 | 12 | 5 | 2.03 |
| Raven Kerri | 5.11 | 17 | 6 | 2.52 |
| Preciado Guadalupe | 3.24 | 12 | 4 | 2.44 |
| Motion H Graham | 2.42 | 38 | 11 | 7.33 |
| Salinas Giovanni M | 2.24 | 17 | 4 | 2.47 |
| Clement Christophe | 2.13 | 13 | 4 | 2.89 |
| Jacobson David | 2.08 | 16 | 5 | 3.67 |
| Shuman Mark | 1.94 | 14 | 4 | 2.91 |
| Kravets Bruce M | 1.68 | 60 | 13 | 8.97 |
| Solis Jacinto | 1.67 | 12 | 2 | 1.20 |
| Stidham Michael | 1.53 | 58 | 15 | 11.44 |
| Posadas Pedro | 1.44 | 23 | 4 | 2.67 |
| Simone Michael V | 1.40 | 78 | 18 | 13.62 |
| Arriagada Juan | 1.35 | 91 | 26 | 21.08 |
| Wagner Karin | 1.25 | 24 | 5 | 3.80 |
| Capuano Gary A | 1.25 | 77 | 25 | 21.15 |
| Sillaman Richard P | 1.24 | 11 | 4 | 3.45 |
| Siculietano Daniel W | 1.23 | 67 | 7 | 3.71 |
| Wyner Harold | 1.19 | 13 | 2 | 1.38 |
| De Jesus Karla M | 1.16 | 12 | 2 | 1.44 |
| Lawrence James Lee | 1.16 | 65 | 10 | 6.99 |
| Servis John C | 1.11 | 12 | 2 | 1.47 |
| Jones Michael E Jr | 1.06 | 63 | 7 | 4.33 |
| Merryman Elizabeth M | 1.05 | 19 | 3 | 2.20 |
| Brion Keri | 0.89 | 31 | 5 | 3.90 |
| Gerlach Freya | 0.86 | 12 | 1 | 0.59 |
| Sanchez-Pinero Angel | 0.79 | 79 | 8 | 5.51 |
| Hendriks Richard J | 0.77 | 28 | 5 | 4.14 |
| Mcclellan Erin C | 0.67 | 14 | 3 | 2.63 |
| Rubley Kelly | 0.55 | 24 | 3 | 2.47 |
| Rodriguez Darien | 0.52 | 34 | 7 | 6.29 |
| Gonzalez Claudio A | 0.50 | 13 | 3 | 2.74 |
| Del Cid Erick | 0.49 | 17 | 1 | 0.67 |
| Allard Edward T | 0.47 | 41 | 8 | 7.24 |
| Barboza Victor Jr | 0.43 | 24 | 7 | 6.59 |
| Matz Michael R | 0.42 | 36 | 6 | 5.40 |
| Compton Greg | 0.40 | 56 | 14 | 13.11 |
| Husak Gary J | 0.39 | 12 | 2 | 1.81 |
| Smith Jason D | 0.29 | 22 | 3 | 2.75 |
| Smith Robert G | 0.26 | 60 | 8 | 7.37 |
| Potts Wayne | 0.26 | 11 | 2 | 1.89 |
| Ness Jamie | 0.15 | 198 | 59 | 57.83 |
| Robb John J | 0.09 | 27 | 6 | 5.90 |
| Ochoa Gerard | -0.04 | 21 | 3 | 3.04 |
| Kelly Blake | -0.05 | 19 | 3 | 3.03 |
| Werneth Robert A | -0.16 | 29 | 1 | 1.18 |
| Strauss Beverly | -0.18 | 17 | 1 | 1.12 |
| Deiter Kelly Lynn | -0.21 | 74 | 3 | 3.63 |
| Robertson McLean | -0.23 | 64 | 9 | 9.60 |
| Russell Brittany T | -0.26 | 35 | 8 | 8.36 |
| Lucas Bonnie | -0.29 | 11 | 1 | 1.13 |
| Iannotti Thomas Iv | -0.30 | 41 | 3 | 3.49 |
| Thomas Jonathan | -0.33 | 17 | 4 | 4.22 |
| Nambo Cesar | -0.33 | 39 | 4 | 4.51 |
| Neilson Wallace C | -0.37 | 11 | 1 | 1.16 |
| CarrascoJr Victor | -0.43 | 41 | 7 | 7.71 |
| Avila Juan Carlos | -0.45 | 13 | 2 | 2.23 |
| Diaz Jorge | -0.45 | 23 | 2 | 2.41 |
| Pessanha Ney | -0.45 | 10 | 0 | 0.18 |
| Nazario Pedro | -0.47 | 119 | 9 | 11.24 |
| Simoff Andrew | -0.48 | 58 | 8 | 9.11 |
| Gorham Michael E | -0.48 | 109 | 10 | 12.11 |
| Ashby Lynn | -0.50 | 70 | 10 | 11.40 |
| Bailon Nesvil Hernan | -0.51 | 51 | 5 | 6.03 |
| Swan Kirsten | -0.52 | 10 | 0 | 0.21 |
| Hogan William J Jr | -0.57 | 13 | 0 | 0.30 |
| Sullivan Elliott | -0.64 | 47 | 5 | 6.20 |
| Brinkman Brett | -0.64 | 27 | 2 | 2.69 |
| Sepulveda Carlos M | -0.72 | 30 | 3 | 3.87 |
| Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo | -0.74 | 78 | 11 | 13.30 |
| Pecoraro Anthony | -0.79 | 45 | 6 | 7.42 |
| Pickett Crystal G | -0.80 | 60 | 2 | 3.92 |
| Hardesty Leslielyn N | -0.81 | 14 | 1 | 1.45 |
| Cronk Samuel F | -0.81 | 25 | 1 | 1.81 |
| Rodriguez Jesus | -0.83 | 25 | 1 | 1.83 |
| Perkinson CC | -0.87 | 10 | 0 | 0.35 |
| Nicholson Junior W | -0.89 | 10 | 0 | 0.35 |
| Mancilla Carlos A | -0.98 | 26 | 2 | 3.02 |
| Ramirez Jose A | -1.00 | 52 | 3 | 5.08 |
| Bentley Fenneka | -1.15 | 12 | 1 | 1.55 |
| Moysey Chelsey E | -1.16 | 75 | 6 | 9.47 |
| Hayford Jennifer | -1.17 | 11 | 0 | 0.51 |
| Serey Mario Jr | -1.17 | 33 | 2 | 3.55 |
| Correa Maxine | -1.18 | 12 | 1 | 1.57 |
| Pham Van | -1.25 | 14 | 0 | 0.70 |
| Lynch Cathal | -1.36 | 68 | 11 | 14.69 |
| Cudworth Paul | -1.38 | 16 | 0 | 0.88 |
| Trombetta Michael J | -1.42 | 10 | 1 | 1.57 |
| Rodriguez Jose S | -1.46 | 20 | 0 | 1.17 |
| Magee Kieron | -1.52 | 38 | 9 | 11.31 |
| Richards Renaldo | -1.56 | 47 | 8 | 10.93 |
| Schultz Lindsay | -1.72 | 14 | 1 | 1.96 |
| Smith Collie | -1.77 | 20 | 0 | 1.42 |
| Ward Dan | -1.79 | 26 | 3 | 4.86 |
| Ramirez Ricardo Gabriel | -1.90 | 10 | 1 | 1.76 |
| Delgado Jorge | -2.24 | 16 | 2 | 3.43 |
| Perkins Ben Jr | -2.38 | 16 | 0 | 1.53 |
| Delacour Arnaud | -2.51 | 14 | 3 | 4.41 |
| Downing William | -2.52 | 10 | 0 | 1.01 |
| Allen A Ferris III | -2.73 | 13 | 0 | 1.42 |
| Klesaris Steve | -3.14 | 18 | 0 | 2.26 |
| Saville Niall | -3.19 | 11 | 0 | 1.40 |
| Capuano Phillip | -3.45 | 15 | 1 | 3.07 |
| Bennett Juanita | -3.63 | 12 | 0 | 1.74 |
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