Mystik Dan makes his return after a tough loss in the Preakness looking to complete the rare Derby-Belmont double after running in all three Triple Crown races. Thunder Gulch was the last to do this in 1995, with a good majority of subsequent Derby winners who lost in the Preakness opting to skip the final leg of the Triple Crown. 

In Mystik Dan’s (and for that matter Seize the Grey’s) way of victory is the Derby runner-up Sierra Leone, who enters as the 9-5 morning line favorite. Barely running out of time in Kentucky, Sierra Leone hopes for better timing on his late move here, and perhaps a bit of pace from likely front runners Dornoch and Seize the Grey. 

A trio of runners from Belmont’s Peter Pan will also enter here, taking a step up in class as new shooters on the Triple Crown trail. Perhaps the most intriguing entry, however, is the outside-breaking Mindframe, a Maryland-bred colt trained by Todd Pletcher, one of three for him. Mindframe has been nothing short of dominant in two starts and begins as the 7-2 second choice on the morning line, but he’ll see far stiffer competition than he has faced in his career with no stakes tries. 

The Belmont Stakes is the twelfth race on Saratoga’s Saturday card with a post time of 6:41 PM EST.

The Picks

1. #9 Sierra Leone (9-5) — Hasn’t done a thing wrong, could get the right trip, and if new rider can cure him of his lugging-in problem, he’ll be tough to hold off

2. #3 Mystik Dan (5-1) — Derby winner backed up that score with a valiant try in Baltimore 

3. #1 Seize the Grey (8-1) — Had it his own way in the Preakness, which isn’t likely here, but showed he can stalk-and-pounce in Pat Day Mile win 

4. #8 Honor Marie (12-1) — Late-running sort could get favorable pace scenario

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Horse by Horse Analysis

NOTE: Click on the tab with the horse’s name and number to see in-depth information and analysis. Click on the camera icon next to the race name to see the race replay.

• 1. Seize the Grey
• 2. Resilience
• 3. Mystik Dan
• 4. The Wine Steward
• 5. Antiquarian

Trainer	Jockey	Odds
D. Wayne Lukas	Jaime Torres	15-1

1st	Preakness Stakes 🎦

1st	Pat Day Mile 🎦

7th	Blue Grass Stakes 🎦

3rd	Jeff Ruby Steaks 🎦

4th	Iroquois S. 🎦

In Depth

• BREEDING: Arrogate – Smart Shopping, by Smart Strike
• OWNER: MyRacehorse
• LIFETIME RECORD: 9-3-0-3
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Grade II Pat Day Mile Stakes

After mostly underwhelming as a two-year-old with lofty expectations, this colt by Arrogate showed some improvement at three, but still wasn’t a threat on the Derby trail. It wasn’t until his Pat Day Mile win where jockey Jaime Torres aggressively put him near a torrid pace that he truly showed the runner he could be. 

Entering the Preakness off of that impressive effort still had him flying mostly under the radar, but another aggressive ride put him back in the winner’s circle for the second straight try. At Pimlico, Seize the Grey faced little pressure, as the other contending speed Imagination was wide early and done quickly over the muddy track. Seize the Grey was thus able to kick on nicely for home in the stretch, even increasing his advantage over Mystik Dan, who held off the late charge of Catching Freedom for second.

This spot may prove more difficult, not only with slightly more distance, but also with the presence of Dornoch, who has typically pressed the lead in his career. A similar trip isn’t likely, although Seize the Grey does have the advantage of breaking his maiden at Saratoga on a sloppy track. If somehow he avoids early pace pressure, this one could be in line for another strong performance, but winning here against a tougher overall field could be difficult.

Trainer	Jockey	Odds
Bill Mott	Junior Alvarado	10-1

6th	Kentucky Derby 🎦

1st	Wood Memorial 🎦

4th	Risen Star 🎦

In Depth

• BREEDING: Into Mischief – Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike
• OWNER: Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman
• LIFETIME RECORD: 7-2-1-1
• MOST RECENT RACE: 6th, Grade I Kentucky Derby

A bit late onto the Derby trail, this colt ran a solid fourth in the Risen Star, losing to Sierra Leone among others, then made his mark in the Wood Memorial. Although that field turned out to be a bit weaker than some other preps, Resilience still finished well at Churchill going off at 32/1. He made a big wide move on the second tur, which may have been a bit early in that race, before eventually fading into sixth in the stretch. 

This colt should be sitting mid-pack here, perhaps a slight notch below some of the other top win contenders but still with a legitimate chance. The value at post time could determine his betting viability, as anything shorter than his morning line isn’t worth a play. Rounding out supers and exotics with this colt could be best given his overall resume, as winning here would require some improvement and for the front end speed to collapse late.

Trainer	Jockey	Odds
Ken McPeek	Brian Hernandez, Jr.	5-1

2	Preakness Stakes 🎦

1	Kentucky Derby 🎦

3	Arkansas Derby 🎦

1	Southwest S. 🎦

5	Smarty Jones S. 🎦

In Depth

• BREEDING: Goldencents – Ma’am, by Colonel John
• OWNER: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing LLC, Daniel Hamby III, and Valley View Farm LLC
• LIFETIME RECORD: 8-3-2-1
• MOST RECENT RACE: 2nd, Grade I Preakness Stakes

Unable to keep his Triple Crown bid alive in the Preakness, Mystik Dan still ran well despite being unable to catch the gate to wire Seize the Grey, who set solid fractions but did them easily and by himself. Despite the defeat, this one still ran valiantly and proved his Churchill win wasn’t a fluke. 

This spot doesn’t appear any easier, though. although there may be a bit more pace to close into here. With Sierra Leone back on the scene, Mystik Dan is no longer has the best closing kick of this group, as he was fortunate to hold him off in the Derby after tiring in the late stretch. The rest component of this could also play a role, as he is the only horse to run in all three Triple Crown races, although Seize the Grey also ran on Derby day before his Preakness win. 

It may be an uphill battle to win here, but he still has a good chance to finish well. Brian Hernandez will likely have him in a good spot, poised to get first run on the speed. Hitting the board would be a good result after this much racing for Mystik Dan, and rounding out exactas and trifectas may be the way to go in most scenarios.

Trainer	Jockey	Odds
Michael Maker	Manny Franco	15-1

2nd	Peter Pan S. 🎦

2nd	Lexington 🎦

2nd	Breeders’ Futurity 🎦

In Depth

• BREEDING: Vino Rosso – Call to Service, by To Honor and Serve
• OWNER: Paradise Farms Corp and David Staudacher
• LIFETIME RECORD: 6-3-3-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 2nd, Grade III Peter Pan Stakes

A winner of his first three races including the Bashford Manor and the Funny Cide Stakes for NY-breds at Saratoga last summer, this colt has finished no worse than second in his six starts. 

Stepping up into graded company in the Breeders’ Futurity, The Wine Steward couldn’t hold off  Locked late, then couldn’t run down Encino in the Lexington in a last gasp effort to reach the Derby. 

As the favorite in the Peter Pan last out, he led in the final furlong but was passed in the stretch by Antiquarian. Manny Franco will take the reins here, as regular pilot Luis Saez sticks with Dornoch. Franco won with this colt here last summer in the Funny Cide. 

Added distance may not be to his liking, as his three wins are all at five and six furlongs, and his efforts are a notch below those of the top contenders here. His best chance would be to sit more mid-pack than he is accustomed and hope that Seize the Grey and Dornoch push each other early, setting up for a strong finish. Still, a win doesn’t seem to be the most likely outcome for those out of the Peter Pan even though the top finishers there are solid.

Trainer	Jockey	Odds
Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	12-1

1st	Peter Pan S. 🎦

6th	Louisiana Derby 🎦

In Depth

• BREEDING: Preservationist – Lifetime Memory, by Istan
• OWNER: Centennial Farms 
• LIFETIME RECORD: 4-2-1-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Grade III Peter Pan Stakes

Breaking to the outside of The Wine Steward, whom he recently toppled in the Peter Pan, this Todd Pletcher trainee ran his best in that try and has shown some improvement as a three-year-old. 

After posing no threat in the Louisiana Derby when he broke through the gate prior, Antiquarian raced near the pace in the Peter Pan and was able to run his best in the deep stretch. Although that try may not compare favorably with those who were on the Triple Crown trail, Antiquarian at least proved that he could handle nine furlongs, and should be in a stalking position here with jockey John Velazquez. 

If he is able to avoid the pace, this could be a nice one value-wise on the bottom of exotics, but would still need to show clear improvement to be a winning threat. A larger field with stronger competition usually doesn’t bode well for horses stepping up in class, especially on just his fifth career start and first in grade I company.

• 6. Dornoch
• 7. Protective
• 8. Honor Marie
• 9. Sierre Leone
• 10. Mindframe

Trainer	Jockey	Odds
Danny Gargan	Luis Saez	15-1

10th	Kentucky Derby 🎦

4th	Blue Grass Stakes 🎦

1st	Fountain of Youth S. 🎦

1st

Remsen 🎦

In Depth

• BREEDING: Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown
• OWNER: West Paces Racing Llc, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding Llc, Two Eight Racing Llc, and Pine Racing Stables
• LIFETIME RECORD: 7-3-2-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 10th, Grade I Kentucky Derby

Dornoch burst onto the Derby scene with an impressive Remsen win, holding off a late-charging Sierra Leone, and followed that with a solid Fountain of Youth victory as the odds-on favorite.

Regular jockey Luis Saez was less aggressive with this habitual front-runner in the Blue Grass, hoping to avoid a quick early pace. In doing so, he took Dornoch out of his comfort zone, and he straggled home a well-beaten fourth. In the Kentucky Derby, he broke slowly from the rail and was soon engulfed by other runners where he never factored into the lead. For all that, he ran willingly enough to finish 10th.

Dornoch likely needs to return to a forward trip here to run his best, at least aimed at the top three in the early going. Seize the Grey is likely the horse that he will contend with through the first half mile, who interestingly held off Dornoch at Saratoga last summer in his debut. It is difficult to imagine Dornoch going gate to wire here or winning if the pace is quick given his recent efforts, but slower fractions could lead to an improved finish over his tenth in Kentucky. He still has yet to prove that going past nine furlongs is a good thing, and with more distance and early challengers, there seem to be more likely winners at the moment.

Trainer	Jockey	Odds
Todd Pletcher	Tyler Gaffalione	20-1

3rd	Peter Pan S. 🎦

3rd	Wood Memorial 🎦

In Depth

• BREEDING: Medaglia d’Oro – Grace Hall, by Empire Maker
• OWNER: Repole Stables
• LIFETIME RECORD: 4-0-1-2
• MOST RECENT RACE: 3rd, Grade III Peter Pan Stakes

With just four tries, this colt by Medaglia d’Oro still hasn’t crossed the finish line first despite some solid efforts, and needs to show major improvement to have a chance here. 

Appropriately the longest shot on the morning line, Protective showed improved early speed and did run on well in third last time out in the Peter Pan, but hasn’t truly threatened in his last two graded stakes tries. In the Wood Memorial, he closed from second to last, 11 lengths back, into third while chopping over seven lengths from his deficit. 

This is one that will likely be positioned near the back and hoping for a pace collapse. If his stablemate Mindframe, also owned by Repole Stable and trained by Todd Pletcher, is pressed towards the lead, it could set up for this colt to run his best yet, making a late charge with the other deep closers Honor Marie and Sierra Leone. While he hasn’t yet proven to be on the level of either of those runners as a closer, especially Sierra Leone, a contentious first half mile could be the only scenario where Protective runs well enough to be in the mix late. Otherwise, there are better options who have shown more as three year olds even if this colt should love the added distance.

Trainer	Jockey	Odds
Whit Beckman	Florent Geroux	12-1

8th	Kentucky Derby 🎦

2nd	Louisiana Derby 🎦

5th	Risen Star 🎦

1	Kentucky Jockey Club 🎦

In Depth

• BREEDING: Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike
• OWNER: Ribble Farms Llc, Michael H. Eiserman, Earl I. Silver, Kenneth E. Fishbein, and Dave Fishbein
• LIFETIME RECORD: 6-2-2-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 8th, Grade I Kentucky Derby

After a visually impressive finish into second in the Louisiana Derby, Honor Marie took plenty of money in the Kentucky Derby, getting bet down to 15/1, which perhaps was too short a price for a colt who is winless at three. 

After a half-mile in the Derby, Honor Marie was dead last and 15 lengths off the pace, perhaps too much ground to make up and finish in the top five. A nice move into the stretch flattened with an eighth place finish but told the tale of this horse: he’s been last or second-to-last at some point in all six of his career starts. 

With only 10 horses here as opposed to 20 in Louisville, Honor Marie has a better chance of closing into the top four at a decent price. Winning doesn’t seem likely, even with new jockey Florent Geroux, as the pace may not be strong enough to get him up, and Sierre Leone has shown more ability as a closer. Maybe one to end up in third or fourth given that distance should be no issue, but would need to improve to have winning chances.

Trainer	Jockey	Odds
Chad Brown	Flavien Prat	9-5

2nd	Kentucky Derby 🎦

1st	Blue Grass Stakes 🎦

1st	Risen Star 🎦

2nd

Remsen 🎦

In Depth

• BREEDING: Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon
• OWNER: Peter M. Brant, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, and Brook T. Smith
• LIFETIME RECORD: 5-3-2-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 2nd, Grade I Kentucky Derby

An impressive winner of the Risen Star and Blue Grass, Sierra Leone entered the Kentucky Derby with real winning chances, narrowly coming up short after a furious late charge with Forever Young in the stretch. Simply running out of time there, Sierra Leone couldn’t quite nab a tiring Mystik Dan at the wire, but showed plenty of talent – and some inexperience – in that try.

Here, he hopes to give trainer Chad Brown his first Belmont win, which would also enable Sierra Leone’s career earnings to surpass his $2.3 million yearling price tag. The early decisions of Dornoch and the outside-breaking Mindframe could determine the success of this colt, as he should be off the pace and needs some speed to close into. If Mindframe is pushed early along with Dornoch, they should meet up with likely leader Seize the Grey, setting up for this one who has shown the most as a late finisher of anyone in this group. 

New jockey Flavien Prat should have no problem getting Sierra Leone to fire, as he has finished no worse than second in five starts. The troubling trend of his has been lugging in late in the stretch, which proved costly in Kentucky where he bumped with Forever Young as they attempted to run down Mystik Dan. If Prat can keep Sierra Leone on a straight path, he has as good a chance as any to win here, especially if the first half mile is on the quicker side.

Trainer	Jockey	Odds
Todd Pletcher	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	7-2

1st

ALW N1X 🎦

In Depth

• BREEDING: Constitution – Walk of Stars, by Street Sense
• OWNER: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stables LLC
• LIFETIME RECORD: 2-2-0-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Allowance Optional Claiming

An uber-talented Maryland-bred colt who has two wins in two starts, this “third” Todd Pletcher entry starts as the surprising second choice on the morning line despite having never run in stakes company. Winning by a combined 20 ½ lengths in his two races will do that, even if the competition was far less than what is here. 

After an eye-popping debut at seven furlongs where he took advantage of a wicked pace, Mindframe took to the lead at 1 1/16 miles, getting relatively easy fractions and proving to be the clear best in that allowance on Derby day at Churchill. Irad Ortiz opted to stay on this mount over Pletcher’s Protective, and may be the key to this race for some of the deep closers.

Mindframe will likely be somewhere near the lead in stretching out, but won’t be able to control the race in the same way as last time out at this distance. If Ortiz pushes him early, it could disrupt Seize the Grey enough to give Sierra Leone and others a target to run at, but a stalking trip may be more advantageous for Mindframe’s winning chances. Either way, even with the clear talent, a step up into a grade I at ten furlongs is a lot to ask for a lightly raced colt, and winning here would take a massive effort against steeper competition. Trip matters more to this colt than anyone, and unless his speed translates immediately at this level, there are better value runners to play in exotics if he stays around his morning line number.

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