LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: march 16, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$2,816
Jackpot Super High 5 — $2,725
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $20,000 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
5-4-1-6
Of the three recent maiden-breakers in this field, #5 Band Camp (2-1) looks like the best. He battled on the lead and overhauled his dueling partner, winning with a career-best brisnet figure of 85. He’s one of two in here who has run in the 80s twice in his career, and the other, Box N Ben, is in tailed-off form. Nico Lucky, who finished second to Band Camp last out, won by 7 1/4 lengths in his next start. #4 Super Bourbon (8-1) rushed up to the lead after an awkward break first time against winners last out, and held most of the way before tiring late. He looks like the fastest one early in this contest, and could get a clear lead if he breaks well. #1 The Last Jumpstart (3-1) converted a great trip to break his maiden at 15th asking last out. He’s the only one in the field to run at least a 75 in each of his last three starts, and should get another nice stalking trip on the inside.
RACE 2: CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS
2-5-6-9
Kentucky shipper #2 Dunphy (9-5) struggled against much better at Turfway Park in his most recent, but was an impressive gate-to-wire winner against starter allowance foes in his prior outing. He should be able to get to his usual spot on the front end from the rail, and from there, should be tough to catch. #5 Burningupthedough (3-1) made an early move into the face and faded last out, but should benefit from another drop down the class ladder. He’s run at least a 75 in three straight starts, right in the range where he needs to be to win. #6 Dance for Green (9-2) ran a much-improved race last out after back-to-back double-digit length defeats. He led late after rating off the pace, but was swallowed up by longshot winner Kingdom Force. He’ll try to finish the job this time.
- What we learned on Maryland Juvenile Stakes dayHere’s what we learned at Laurel Park for Saturday’s Maryland Juvenile and Maryland Juvenile Filly Stakes.
RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS
6-3-2-7
#6 Without Pretence (9-2) didn’t show much in his dirt debut last summer at Timonium, but returned in a big way in his first start since then last out. He rallied well in the three-path to overhaul the favored loose leader, and was beaten only by a rival who raced one path further to the inside than he did. If he builds on the 84 he ran in that race, he’ll be tough to beat. #3 Blue Kingdom (5-1) and #2 Banditsgoldenchild (6-1) made their debuts in the same race on March 1. Blue Kingdom pressed Banditsgoldenchild on the pace and overhauled that rival to finish one length clear in third. Both of them ran well considering it was their first efforts, and should once again be early pace factors.
RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES
1-4-6-5
#1 Desvio (9-5) broke much better second time on dirt, and responded with a much-improved effort, breaking his maiden as much the best with an impressive 87. That race was also at a mile, in contrast to his prior six-furlong tries, and he handled the extra distance easily. The extra sixteenth today shouldn’t be an issue. #4 Malinois (5-2) is the only one in the field who has beaten winners, having taken a $40,000 claiming contest in his most recent. He’s turned a corner since getting claimed by Phil Capuano in mid-December, running back-to-back marks in the mid-80s after running no better than a 68 in his first five races. #6 Photo Hop (15-1) just missed after a stretch battle in his last start, with a career-best 78. He’s taking a step up in class, but if his form holds steady, he’ll be an upset candidate.
RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS
1-4-6-9
#1 Harmonizing (7-2) ran well first off the layoff last out, stalking the pace and leading late before getting overwhelmed by two rivals who came from well off the pace and swooped the group. She ran a sharp 70 on debut at Timonium last August, and it looks like she’s slowly rounding back into form. #4 Edester (3-1) went off favored against a soft field on debut, and finished a clear-cut second behind the impressive victor, G’s Fireball. This is a jump in class from that race, but she can certainly take a step forward here, which could mean victory. #6 Sunny Sunshine (2-1) opened up a very long early lead and stopped badly in her last start. She’s clearly the most potent frontrunner in the field, but she doesn’t have many chances left before I write her off as a Free Admission/Landon Jack type (both also trained by John Salzman Jr).
RACE 6: CLAIMING $8,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
7-9-4-3
#7 Up Against It (2-1) scratched out of an easier spot two Saturdays ago to try his hand against second-level foes last out. That didn’t work out so well; he briefly prompted the pace and finished up the track. He’s already won three times this year against these types, and that line might throw bettors off the scent and drive up his price a bit. #9 His Name is Sue (6-1) is the only one in the field to run in the 80s in each of his last three starts. He used his tactical speed to get up and win as the heavy chalk last out, and should at least get another nice trip. #4 Remembering Wilbur (8-1) won at this level three starts back, and ran an improved race last out despite an overland trip.
- Maryland Juvenile: A mystery solved, decades laterSaturday’s Maryland Juvenile Stakes should be a fun race, but it’s unlikely to launch the careers of two Classic winners, like the 1982 edition did.
RACE 7: NOT FOR LOVE STAKES, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED/SIRED, 6 FURLONGS
3-1-6-7
The first stakes race today pays tribute to the legendary Maryland stallion. #3 Rominski (9-5) was scratched out of a third-level spot yesterday to run here, and he actually looks more imposing here. He’s gone gate-to-wire to win his last three starts, running in the 90s every time. His only bad starts in the past twelve months came when he bled in late March, which sent him to the sidelines, and his first race back from a subsequent seven-month layoff. His half-brother, Whereshetoldmetogo, won this race twice, and this one looks to be in good shape to match his older brother’s feat. #1 Arden’sluckytobe (7-2) has crossed the wire first three times in his last four starts. He has the post draw advantage, and the ability to rate off what could be a hot tempo if need be. #6 Take a Hint (8-5) went off as the odds-on choice in a second-level contest last out, in what looked like a relatively easy prep for this race. However, he faded after showing speed and ended up third. He still has the best early pace figures in the race, but that performance left me a bit cold, and if the morning line is an indication, he’s bound to still take plenty of play.
RACE 8: CONNIVER STAKES, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-BRED/SIRED, 7 FURLONGS
7-4-1-2
The other Maryland-restricted contest of the day is named for the Vanderbilt-bred champion mare of the late 1940s. #7 Golden Tabby (9-5) has finished in the exacta seven times in a row, and is two photo finishes away from five consecutive victories. She battled with the classy Disco Ebo, who’s better than anyone in here, and rerallied late to lose by a head. She should be a tough customer on the lead here. Mychel Sanchez, Jamie Ness’s go-to rider at Parx, comes here for the mount. #4 Too Many Kisses (5-1) made a sharp late rally to win first off a 3 1/2-month layoff last out. Charming Way, who she finished second to in her 2023 finale, who has since won three mor times, including the Nellie Morse Stakes. #1 My Flicker (4-1) regressed when stepped up to third-level company in her most recent outing, but had won two in a row with strong figures in her prior races. She’ll look for a rebound first off the Brittany Russell claim.
RACE 9: HARRISON JOHNSON MEMORIAL STAKES, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
5-1-4-2
The late longtime Maryland trainer is honored with this race. This race features a rematch between #5 Magic Michael (9-2) and #1 Shaft’s Bulllet (4-1), who both exit the same third-level race here on Feb. 25. Magic Michael won their first two meetings last fall, but Shaft’s Bullet got the measure of his rival last out, rallying wide to win by a neck with a career-best 99. His only bad race came two starts ago, where he was wide every step and proved no factor. However, he’s unproven without Lasix, while Magic Michael has run well without it in the past. It could prove to be no issue, but I don’t know for sure, so I’ll lean on the proven commodity at about the same price. #4 It’s Sizzling Time (7-2) has run back-to-back 95s to win his last two starts in upset fashion, including an 11-1 victory in the John B. Campbell Stakes last out. His win two starts back came at this distance, and his closing style suggests he’ll once again relish the long one-turn mile stretch.
RACE 10: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/16 MILES
2-6-1-3
#2 Lorraine’s Way (5-2) improved sharply to a 63 at second asking last out, and should benefit not only from more experience, but from a drop from the $45,000 level. #6 Breaking Rules (8-5) has improved her figure with each start, and is one of two in here (along with Lorraine’s Way) to run in the 50s every time out. She’s never been beyond six furlongs, but if she can stretch out, she’ll contend. #1 Collected Success (4-1) has gotten caught wide on the tight turns of Charles Town in her last few starts, but should benefit from a better draw today.
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