With two days of live racing contested last weekend at Laurel Park — the only two in the last two weekends — there wasn’t much change in the latest wins above expectations data, but there was some. Among trainers, Lacey Gaudet remains at the top of the class, while apprentice Andres Chavez has moved to the top among riders.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins. We include only jockeys that have made at least 50 starts in Maryland since the end of the Timonium meet and trainers that have made at least 25.

FACTS AND FIGS

Chavez won once over the weekend at Laurel and is 6-for-21 at the meet. He’s won with 10 of his last 50 Maryland starters, a colony-leading 4.54 wins above expectations…

Chavez took the top spot from Jaime Rodriguez, who has cooled off just slightly from an insanely hot beginning to the year. Rodriguez won three times last weekend, from 17 starters, and is 14-for-50, 2.74 wins above expectations…

Others in the upper echelon in their last 50 starts include Jean Briceno (8-for-50, 3.55 above expectations), Tais Lyapustina (7-for-50, 2.36), and Forest Boyce (7-for-50, 1.96)…

Nine of 25 riders to have made at least 50 Maryland starts since the beginning of last September’s Pimlico meet have won more often than their odds would have predicted. For the full list, check our Handicapping page…

Rodriguez tops the wins-above-expectations metric at the current Laurel meet, which began Jan. 1. He’s 18-for-59, 4.35 wins above expectations. Chavez is at 3.50 wins above expectations at the meet, while Jevian Toledo (10 wins) is at 2.48. They are the only riders above 2.0 to date…

Rodriguez and Sheldon Russell top the list in terms of percentage of purse money earned. Rodriguez has grabbed 23.2% of available purse money, while Russell has taken 20.8%. Toledo, at 18.1%, is a clear third…

MARYLAND JOCKEYS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 50 Maryland mounts)

Jockey	Starts	Wins	Expected wins	Wins above expectations
Chavez Andres	50	10	5.46	4.54
Briceno Jean Gregor	50	8	4.45	3.55
Rodriguez Jamie	50	14	11.26	2.74
Lyapustina Tais	50	7	4.64	2.36
Boyce Forest	50	7	5.04	1.96
Rosado Johan	50	6	4.23	1.77
Alvelo Jean C	50	5	3.69	1.31
Toledo Jevian	50	10	8.95	1.05
Barbosa Jeiron	50	9	8.90	0.10

A hot streak that has seen Lacey Gaudet win with 14 of her last 25 starters, spanning the end of last year and the beginning of this, has her at 9.01 wins above expectations in her last 25 starts — this when no other trainer has even three wins above expectations…

Gaudet, Antonio Machado, and Tim Keefe have had the most fruitful starts to the year. While Gaudet is 4-for-9, Machado is 4-for-5, and Keefe is 3-for-8. All three are between 2.0 and 3.0 wins above expectations in Maryland in 2024…

Women occupy four of the top five spots in the 25-race numbers, with Gaudet followed by Keri Brion (2.73 above expectations), Susan Cooney (2.47), and Diane Alvarado Morici (1.75), with only Keefe’s 1.85 breaking up the group…

Twenty-six of 56 trainers to have made at least 25 starts in Maryland since the beginning of the September Pimlico meet have won more often than their odds would have predicted. For the full list, check our Handicapping page…

Gaudet leads all trainers by percentage of purse earned, scoring 35.2% of available purse moneys in her last 25 starts. Jamie Ness (7 wins, 23.2%) and Brittany Russell (6 wins, 21.4%) are the only other trainers above 20% of purse earnings…

MARYLAND TRAINERS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 25 Maryland starts)

Trainer	Starts	Wins	Expected wins	Wins above expectations
Gaudet Lacey	25	14	4.99	9.01
Brion Keri	25	6	3.27	2.73
Cooney Susan S	25	4	1.53	2.47
Keefe Timothy L	25	4	2.15	1.85
Alvarado Diane	25	4	2.25	1.75
Machado Antonio	25	5	3.31	1.69
Mancilla Carlos A	25	4	2.34	1.66
Lawrence James Lee	25	3	1.71	1.29
Corrales Jose	25	4	2.73	1.27
De Paz Horacio	25	4	2.79	1.21
Shankle Joanne	25	4	2.84	1.16
Frock Charles A	25	4	2.86	1.14
Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo	25	5	3.88	1.12
Lynch Cathal	25	3	1.99	1.01
Matz Michael R	25	4	3.00	1.00
Schoenthal Phil	25	4	3.19	0.81
Cibelli Jane	25	4	3.33	0.67
Capuano Gary A	25	5	4.57	0.43
Gonzalez Claudio A	25	3	2.58	0.42
Salzman John E Jr	25	4	3.65	0.35
Eubanks Annette M	25	3	2.72	0.28
Perri Gina	25	2	1.75	0.25
Sillaman Richard P	25	3	2.83	0.17
McKenzie Daniel J	25	3	2.87	0.13
Mohan David R	25	2	1.87	0.13
Smith Hamilton A	25	3	2.90	0.10

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