Laurel Park jockeys and trainers to watch
Five jockeys and 17 trainers among the meet leaders in starts are winning at a rate that’s at least one win per start higher than their odds would predict. Jockeys with at least 40 starts account for 87% of the wins at Pimlico and Laurel since the end of the Timonium meet, while trainers with at least 20 starts account for about two-thirds of all wins during that period.
The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins; for comparison purposes, they were then translated into a final “Added wins per 100 starts” metric.
The top of the jockey table looks substantially similar to last week’s, with Forest Boyce (15 wins, 7.64 added per 100 starts), Jeiron Barbosa (38, 5.96), Jean Briceno (9, 5.21), Jean Alvelo (7, 3.63), and Martina Rojas (13, 2.82) all remaining in the top five. Barbosa’s 38 wins during the period are 10 more than any other rider has managed.
After that group, the next highest are Jorge Hernandez (4 wins, 0.85 added) and Will Humphrey (11, 0.83). A couple of other riders are in that same “slightly positive” category in added wins per 100 starts, while a dozen riders are winning less frequently than their odds would predict.
LEADING JOCKEYS (added wins per 100 starts)
|Name||Starts||Actual wins||Expected wins||Added wins/100 starts|
|Briceno J G||83||9||4.68||5.21|
|Alvelo J C||73||7||4.35||3.63|
The 33 trainers with at least 20 starts account for about two-thirds of all wins during the relevant time period. They range from 21 starts to 99 and from zero wins to 24.
Ray Ginter, Jr., who trains for Lynn Cash’s Built Wright Stables, continues to lead in added wins per 100 starts. His charges have won 7 races overall, a rate that’s 7.98 wins per 100 starts higher than expected. He narrowly edges out Michael Matz (5 wins, 7.59 added per 100 starts) for the top spot.
Trainers with at least 10 wins who make the top group include Kieron Magee (12 wins, 5.95 added wins per 100 starts), Hugh McMahon (12, 5.21), Jamie Ness (23, 5.05) and Rudy Sanchez-Salomon (10, 3.34). Thirteen trainers are winning less frequently than their odds would predict.
LEADING TRAINERS (added wins per 100 starts)
|Name||Added wins/100 starts||Starts||Actual wins||Expected wins|
|Ginter Raymond Jr||7.98||35||7||4.21|
|Matz Michael R||7.59||25||5||3.10|
|Cooney Susan S||5.52||26||3||1.57|
|Mcmahon Hugh I||5.21||58||12||8.98|
|Robb John J||4.58||37||6||4.31|
|Smith Hamilton A||3.30||39||6||4.71|
|Serey Mario Jr||3.15||40||6||4.74|
|Mancilla Carlos A||2.50||33||5||4.18|
|Keefe Timothy L||2.33||51||5||3.81|
|Bailes W Robert||1.79||23||3||2.59|
|Dilodovico Damon R||1.11||41||5||4.54|
|Sillaman Richard P||1.05||23||3||2.76|
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