Delaware Park trends and tips

Analytics has become a buzzword in all sports ever since “Moneyball” and Billy Beane hit the scene with the Oakland Athletics. While familiar names – Jaime Rodriguez, Jamie Ness – top the rider and trainer standings at Delaware Park, digging into the data a bit more reveals a number of riders and trainers – and angles – that can benefit the bettor.

Who’s hot? And not? With 57% of the 2023 Delaware Park meet concluded, we present some trends that bettors might want to note.

JROD

Last year, jockey Jaime Rodriguez had 491 starts and cruised to the jockey title. This year he currently has a slim lead in the jockey standings, but in part that is related to the fact that he has been competing in Maryland a few days a week. If anything, he is riding better this year than last. He won the recently concluded Laurel Park summer meet and simultaneously was the leading jockey at Delaware. Quite a riding double…

ROIs

Currently jockeys Daniel Centeno and Kevin Gomez are running second and third in the jockey race. Daniel has ridden 150 mounts with 33 wins and Kevin has ridden 149 with 32 wins. Despite their season-long excellence, the average win payoff for both jocks is a healthy $8.70. That means if you bet every one of their mounts blindly you would have broken very close to even; each is returning more than 95 cents for each dollar you would have wagered.

Three other, well-known jockeys all have a positive ROI for the meet even if you had bet all their runners blindly. Ruben Silvera, a perennial top jock at Parx, has nine winners in just 37 mounts. The average payoff was a generous $14.20; you would have received just under $128 for $74 in win bets on him.

In his first year of riding, Axel Concepcion has been impressive, while mainly riding in Maryland.  At Delaware he has 11 winners in 40 mounts and an average win price of $10.60. By betting him blindly you would have received just under $117 for $80 in win bets. John Hiraldo also has a positive ROI for the meet, which does include an outlier $112.60 winner on Saturday, August 26…

CHECK OUT THE LATEST OFF TO THE RACES RADIO!

JOCKEY ODDS AND ENDS

Kevin Gomez is having a career year, which is being driven by a win rate of 28% on the dirt. On the turf he is 2-for-41. Daniel Centeno’s strike rate on favorites is an incredible 48%. Jaime Rodriguez is 0 for 11 on two-year-olds. Jockeys Paco Lopez, Sheldon RussellJevian Toledo and Tyler Connor have come to Delaware for just 46 rides combined but have achieved an ITM% exceeding 70%…

TRAINER ODDS AND ENDS

On the trainer side, Brittany Russell has an incredible ITM% of 78%. She is currently second in the trainer standings. Michael Gorham has won with 8 out of 12 favorites he has sent to the gate. Lynn Ashby has won with 39% of her sprinters but just 11% of her route runners. Michael Stidham has won with 32% of his routers but just 13% of his sprinters. Elliot Sullivan is 0-for-12 with routers but has done well with sprinters…

ROIs

Three trainers among the top cohort have positive ROIs for the meet, led by Chelsey Moysey. Moysey (10 wins, average payoff of $19.60) is fourth in the trainer standings by wins, and her ROI for the meet to date is $3.43 for each two dollars wagered. Also in positive numbers are Lynn Ashby (nine wins, $3.05 ROI) and Michael Stidham (eight wins, $3.22 ROI)…

AND…

The winners of the Delaware Oaks (Foggy Night) and Delaware Handicap (Idiomatic) have come back to win the Cathryn Sophia and Personal Ensign (Gr 1), respectively. Both horses seem to be improving, so follow them closely.

There have been few Monmouth Park shippers to-date, but once that track’s regular meet ends September 10, expect to see horses come more frequently from the New Jersey oval. The racing there is generally tougher, so give a look to these runners.

Keep an eye on field sizes as the meet nears its end. Monmouth’s season end should help, and issues in Maryland may, as well. Conversely, some outfits will likely head to their winter homes as Delaware’s meet nears its conclusion, taking some horses out of circulation.

LATEST NEWS