Charles Town picks and horses to watch: September 30

Charles Town Races has an eight-race card on tap for this evening. Post time for the opener is 7:00 p.m., and we’ve got Charles Town picks.

Carryovers: Jackpot Pick 6, $69,169

Check out our other handicapping here!

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RACE

Race 6

CONTENDERS

6-4-2-5

ANALYSIS

Top choice #6 Midnight Brass (8-5) arrives off a win and has won two of four in her brief career — all, interestingly enough for a three-year-old, against older horses. She figures to sit a good trip here just off the speed… Leading rider Bocachica jumps ship from our top choice to ride morning line fave #4 Mackenzie’s Music (6-5), who has lost three straight since back-to-back wins to open the career. Her last, though, was her first in a year and was a perfectly credible third-place finish against similar. She can move forward off that, but the question is whether she’ll get caught up with other speed types early… #2 Long Legs Louise (10-1) hasn’t been in the best form, but she’s shown the ability to compete at this level and should have a pace to run at… In all but one of her two-turn tries, #5 Cedar’s Wish (5-1) has been in first at the first call, and she certainly figures a forward factor again today…

Race 7

3-2-6-7

Top choice #3 Mr Chance Romance (3-1) doesn’t seem to be entering this allowance contest in the best of form, but look a little closer. The Limehouse gelding won at first asking and then missed five months. He returned to be a near-miss third against similar in a very solid return to action. Then trainer Ronney Brown stretched him out to two turns, which did not go well, as he stopped in the lane. Now he’s cutting back to 4 1/2 furlongs and making his third start off the long break. Look for an improved effort today… Morning line favorite #2 Unison (5-2) hasn’t been worse than third in three career outings… #6 Burr Hill Bullet (10-1) showed promise when graduating at first asking, but his follow-up tries have disappointed. Maybe he’s feeling a bit better about himself after an improved try versus lesser with blinks put back on, and he’ll make his first start in the John Carlisle barn here. Let’s give him one more crack… Owner-breeder Anthony Grigsby is set to add trainer to his list of titles when he sends out #7 Road Party (4-1), formerly in the Tim Grams barn, in this spot. If prior performances hold true, he certainly fits with these, but this has the feel of the last work in preparation for a horse who’s done his best work around two turns…

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