Laurel Park picks and ponderings November 13 2021

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $2,679 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $8,905

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

• 10-3-1-7
• #10 Street Prayer (5/1) was claimed last out by Mike Trombetta. He was the comfortable favorite at this level last out, but faded after getting a wide trip. He’s running the risk of that again with his draw, but had a string of upper-70s brisnet figures and near-misses in his prior races. Luis Batista, who has been riding slightly better than his last-out rider, Juan Alvelo, gets the mount. He’ll try to save as much ground as he can. #3 Boss is a Pal (12/1) cuts back to a dirt sprint after competing primarily in grass routes. Anthony Farrior is 22% second off the claim. He showed little in his lone dirt start, but that was against better horses than these. If he has even a bit of his grass aptitude on dirt, he’ll be tough. #1 Cosa Mas Linda (9/2) broke awkwardly last out and struggled thereafter. He broke his maiden impressively two starts back and will likely show speed on the inside.

RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)

13-7-11-2 (DIRT: 3-15-7-9)

#13 Atreyu (9/2) hasn’t run worse than an 80 in six grass starts this year, and drops from the starter allowance level. He closed well to get fourth after a wide trip last out. #7 King’s Honor (5/2) set the pace last out and won going away at this level, for his second victory in his last three starts. Looks like the main speed threat in this race. #11 Tankerville (8/1) surged to win against softer two races back, and just missed at Mountaineer last out. He’s got good tactical speed, but if he wins, it’ll likely be after a long grind.

RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

• 8-5-7-6

• #8 Outkissed (2/1) closed and just missed on debut, with an impressive figure of 84. Only one horse in the field has run an 84 at any point in their career, and that’s #5 Bust’em Kurt (7/2), who missed by a neck on debut against Jersey-breds at Monmouth Park. Since then, he’s finished second twice at odds-on, but has yet to find the winner’s circle. He got involved in pace duels in all three of his starts; if he can manage to avoid one here, it’ll help the cause. #7 Quite Ready (10/1) looks quite ready indeed for his first start, with some sharp workouts, including a bullet drill, for Mike Trombetta. This one might need a race, as Trombetta is generally better with his second-time starters, but he doesn’t have to be a world-beater to get a third or fourth-place finish in this group.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 3-4-6-7

• #3 Princess Kokachin (9/5) has won three races in a row, all of them in front-running fashion. The only one who might be able to run with her early is the #6 Margie’s Heaven (4/1) who won at this level at Pimlico in August and saw a four-race win streak snapped last out in a photo finish. However, Princess Kokachin has better early pace and figures and the inside draw, so I’ll give her the edge. If those two burn each other out on the front end, #4 She’s Answered (7/2) just cleared her n/w1x condition last out at Monmouth with a perfect stalking trip, and has run in the mid-80s in each of her last two starts. She’s going to sit right off the leaders again.

RACE 5 – MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

• 9-1-3-7
• #9 Christine’s Cosmo (9/5) hasn’t run worse than a 67 in her two career starts and plunges in class after two tries against straight maidens. This’ll be her first start since May 26; trainer Ned Allard is 16% with horses off a 90+ day layoff. She can probably afford to be subpar by her standards and still win this one. #1 Got a Good Reason (12/1) closed well on debut to get sixth, after sitting in last early on. She ran a 60 in that first start, making her a solid contender here. I would be surprised if she went off at longer odds than her 12/1 morning line. If she does, all the better. #3 Expect the Sunrise (6/1) exits the same race as Got a Good Reason. She set the pace in that race, but flattened out in the last eighth. She’s going to be the main speed here; we’ll see how long she can carry her early energy. At worst, I’d expect her to hang on for an underneath spot.

RACE 6: SMART HALO STAKES, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

• 7-5-1-2

• The first stakes race of the day is named after the first Maryland Million Lassie winner. Three horses in here are coming out of this year’s Lassie, which was conducted on a track playing towards the inside. As such, horses who raced on the outside part of the track must be given extra consideration. #7 Sparkle Sprinkle (6/1) pressed the pace in that race, and ended up third after chasing the leaders wide. She ran a career-best figure of 81 in that race, and should keep moving forward here with a more fair track. #5 Buy the Best (7/2) ran an 87 and an 88 in her last two starts, including an impressive 2 ¼-length come-from-behind win against n/w1x types at Delaware Park. She was a bit further off the pace than usual in that start. Usually, she’s on or near the early lead. No rider has been named as of this writing. Jaime Rodriguez, who rode her last time, has jumped off to ride Intrepid Daydream for Gary Capuano. Steve Asmussen ships a few in for today’s card, including #1 Trade Secret (3/1). She’s a pure speedster, having won her last two dirt starts in gate-to-wire fashion. Feargal Lynch gets the mount for the first time on this filly, and will likely send her straight to the front and try to wire them. 

RACE 7: JAMES F. LEWIS III STAKES, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

• 2-7-3-4
• This race is named after a longtime trainer who was the first president of the Maryland Million. Charles Town’s leading trainer, Jeff Runco, saddled the top two finishers in the Vincent Moscarelli Memorial Breeders’ Classic Stakes, #2 Run to Daylight (5/2) and #3 Amidships (6/1), and sends both of them here. I’ll give the edge to Run to Daylight, as he’s a two-time stakes winner and gets Arnaldo Bocahica, Runco’s first-call jockey, in the saddle. He overcame adversity in the Moscarelli, recovering from a bad start to win going away. Amidships was well clear of the rest of the field in the Moscarelli, and earned an 80 two races back going 6 ½ furlongs in a maiden-breaking win. Denis Araujo, Charles Town’s second-best jockey, will be up. #7 Local Motive (7/2) raced off the rail throughout in the Maryland Million Nursery and held on to finish third behind a rail-skimming winner. He might get hung wide again, but he showed heart in spite of the circumstances in the Nursery and should get a more neutral track today.
• RACE 8: THIRTY EIGHT GO GO STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES
• 5-6-7-8
• Thirty Eight Go Go won several stakes races in Maryland in the late 1980s, including three consecutive editions of the Geisha Handicap from 1988 to 1990. The top three finishers in a n/w3x allowance optional claiming race at Delaware on October 21 all come back here, including the winner, #5 Miss Leslie (4/1). She rated well behind early, then made an effortless move to the lead and won going away. She won the Weber City Miss Stakes at Pimlico in April, and has started to find her best form again after an up-and-down summer. #6 Scatrattlenroll (8/1) wired a tough allowance optional claiming field at Delaware Park two races back, with a lifetime top figure of 96. She got pace pressure in that race and still held on, so I’m not too concerned about someone challenging her for the lead here. #7 Josie (9/5) was a sharp-closing third in the Twixt Stakes last out for Asmussen and Lynch. She had a terrible trip in the Groupie Doll Stakes two back at Ellis Park, but won the Iowa Distaff at Prairie Meadows going away three back with a great setup. She’s run in the upper-90s in two of her last three races. Has a big chance, but will likely get overbet. 
• RACE 9: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 3-13-5-4 (DIRT: 5-15-10-7)
• #3 He Gone (3/1) improved sharply in his second start on grass, setting the pace and holding on to finish second. His figure of 76 is a nine-point improvement from his first race on the lawn. He’s likely to get pace pressure from Capt. Candy, but this one shown resilience and will have the inside advantage. #13 Blame B B (5/1) was fourth behind He Gone last out on debut, after pressing the pace and rating wide. Adds blinkers and gets a jockey switch to Charlie Marquez. Likely to get a similar trip as last time. #5 Dathoss (8/1) tries grass for the first time for Cal Lynch, who is 28% debuting on that surface. He got bet on debut, but was caught wide and flattened out. We’ll see if grass is what he needs.

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