Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 7, 2021

by John Piassek | Oct 7, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $3,057 Super High 5 — $3,178 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

3-6-2-5
The racing week begins with a field of 2-year-old maiden claimers. We’re only sixteen days out from the Maryland Million. #3 Magic in Me (3/1) has the most experience of anyone in the race, with five starts under her belt. She improved to a career-best brisnet figure of 66 last out, getting third after saving ground. If she keeps moving forward, she should finally get to the winner’s circle. Alex Crispin looks to snap an 0-for-20 losing streak to start the season. #6 Kobe’s Girl (5/1) exits the same race as Magic in Me, finishing fourth behind that rival on debut. Adds blinkers and looks to build on her debut figure of 60. That’s the second-best last-out figure in the race. #2 Happybirthdaycorey (5/2) was purchased for $40,000 and is in for $16,000 on debut for Brittany Russell. Doesn’t have to show much to win this one, however. Workouts keep getting better.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

3-1-4-2

#3 Gallinipper (2/1) was coerced into setting a fast pace last out at Penn National, but hung around until the last eighth and earned a sharp figure of 75. He’ll try to slow things down early on here, but will encounter some pace pressure, namely from #1 itsknownasthebern (8/1). That one has speed from the inside and switches back to dirt after failing to last on grass. He can take the lead or rate early on; we’ll see which Charlie Marquez elects to employ here. #4 Blue Sky Painter (8/5) will rate off the pace and take full advantage if the speed horses can’t last. He’s run at least a 76 in four of his last six starts. Any of those races probably wins this one.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE (GRASS)

3-2-7-12
#3 Fortes (6/1) has raced just three times, and only once on grass. It was a good effort, as he came from twelve lengths back to get up for fifth, with a figure of 73. Should make noise late at a price. #2 Pounding Music (3/1) has come in second or third six times from eight starts, but hasn’t yet won. He tends to rate right off the leaders and flatten out. He consistently runs figures in the mid/upper-70s and goes second off a brief layoff. You have to figure that one of these days will be his if he maintains his form. #7 Twelveo’clockrock (7/2) also flew from nowhere in his grass debut and stretches out around two turns for the first time.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

4-2-3-7
#2 Ellie Be Dancing (5/2) also broke her maiden two races back; she did so at Monmouth Park. She has early speed from the inside and may prove tough to collar. #3 Peculiarity (7/2) also has loads of speed, and gets back to dirt after showing speed and fading on grass in her first try at this condition. Will try to avoid a duel with Ellie Be Dancing. #4 Coral Summer (10/1) broke her maiden two back at Timonium with a figure of 69, then stalked on the inside and got third in her first start against winners. She’s lightly-raced and has room to improve at a price.

RACE 5 – MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

11-6-8-12
#11 Determined Star (10/1) improved twelve points second time out, running an 80 while getting fourth, beaten 3 1/2 lengths. She stretches out around two turns for the first time for Phil Schoenthal, who is a respectable 14% with horses going a route for the first time. #6 Golden Belief (4/1) just missed on debut at Delaware Park, rallying for second and almost chasing down a loose leader. The third-place finisher in that race, Style, came back to win at Delaware next out. #8 Time Goes Fast (15/1) got stuck behind an impossible pace scenario last out but still made decent ground. Could shake up the exotics at a price.

RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

3-4-7-5
#3 Bakeneko (4/1) took a big leap forward first off the claim for Claudio Gonzalez, improving to a 77 in a near-miss against similar. He hasn’t raced since that April 11 contest, but his recent workouts have been strong. I’m hoping he can sneak through the cracks in the wagering. #4 Liberty Star (4/1) got outfinished on debut by several of these, but still ran a solid 72 and can move forward. He’ll have to show more early speed to win this one. #7 Da Money (6/1) comes out of the same race as Liberty Star, and turned in a big performance in his first start in more than a year. He showed abundant early speed before fading. Looks to finish the job on the lead here.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

1-7-8-10
#1 Witty Banter (8/1) ran a big race to defeat n/w3L types last out at Colonial. Her closing style will play well over this course, which has not been favoring front-end types lately. #7 Fed Up Fired Up (9/2) won two of her last three against open claimers and goes first off the claim for Kieron Magee. She isn’t quite the same as an 8-year-old, but should still have enough left in the tank to win a race like this. #8 Giulia Ammannati (8/1) has had very up-and-down form all year, but she recently came back from a nine-month break and has the most early speed in the race. Horses who are near the pace aren’t completely up against it over this track, so Victor Carrasco might want to rate just off the pace instead.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
2-1-4-5
#2 Edie Menny Miny Mo (1/2) looked like a future star after her first two races, which she won by a combined 10 1/4 lengths. She ran huge when stretching out in the Monmouth Oaks two back, getting second after setting the pace. However, she disappointed in the Prioress Stakes at Saratoga next out, as one of the favorites. Gets plenty of class relief and will use this race as a chance to get her head right. #1 Mischiefs Model (15/1) cleared her n/w1x condition three races back, then rerallied for fourth at this level after getting shuffled back. She’ll rate the trip off the leaders. #4 Liam’s Light (3/1) has been improving all year, peaking at an 88 in a n/w1x allowance win at Monmouth last out. She’s another one who will enjoy a good trip just off the leader’s flank.
RACE 9: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

2-5-8-3
I’m usually not big on horses coming off very long layoffs. However, #2 Narmer (9/2) looks like he’s oozing with potential. He made his debut at Keeneland last October, went off as one of the favorites, and made mild ground in the stretch while lugging in. He went back to the worktab not long after that, but then was sidelined for several months. In the meantime, he went from Chad Brown to Graham Motion, and looks ready to go second time out. Adds lasix for the first time. #5 Lacco Ameno (7/2) steps back up to the maiden special weight level and has produced a solid closing kick in each of his last few. He just missed at this level two races back. #8 Silk War (7/2) was a solid third on debut. He was outkicked by Lacco Ameno but held off most of the others in a promising effort. His figure of 76 matches the best last-out figure in the race.