Spa selections 2021: Saratoga picks August 7
Ginger N Rye won the 2017 Smart N Fancy Stakes at Saratoga. Photo by Chelsea Durand/NYRA.
by Joseph Aiello
In Spa Selections, Saratoga on-site correspondent Joseph Aiello provides Saratoga picks for a handful of key races at Saratoga, including all of the exciting stakes action!
Race 6 – Fasig-Tipton Lure Stakes
1. #3 Value Proposition (2-1) – Not a particular standout in this field and this ridgling will probably be over-bet, but seems like the best of the Chad Brown trio
2. #11 Dreams of Tomorrow (8-1) – Tough post, but this McGaughey trainee is a winner of his last two and seems to be improving at the right time
3. #2 Delaware (9-2) – Horse by Frankel has struggled to find the winner’s circle at times, but a consistent finisher who will be coming late to try and hit the board
Race 7 – Grade II Glens Falls Stakes
1. #5 My Sister Nat (3-1) – Jose Ortiz stays on this mare who has run well at Saratoga, and should be a better price than the morning line odds indicate
2. #3 War Like Goddess (8-5) – Probably the most likely winner, as it seems like the longer distance the better she runs, still might not be great value
3. #1 Call Me Love (8-1) – Won last time in her first try at a mile and a half, plus has plenty of back class that make her worth a longshot play here
Race 8 – Grade I Longines Test Stakes
1. #7 Search Results (5-2) – Some other talented fillies in this field, but if this one runs her race, she wins here
2. #8 Bella Sofia (6-1) – Plenty of speed and an impressive race last time out, but will need a bit softer fractions to have a winning chance stretching out to seven furlongs
3. #4 Obligatory (4-1) – This filly by Curlin has one of the better seven furlong wins of this group, but unlike Bella Sofia, will need strong early fractions to close into
Race 9 – Grade I Saratoga Derby Invitational
1. #1 Soldier Rising (12-1) – Might be overmatched having not been particularly dominant overseas, but seeing Irad Ortiz with Clement makes this gelding by Frankel interesting here
2. #6 Bolshoi Ballet (2-1) – Didn’t have much pace to close into last time but still came out on top as the favorite, so clearly the one to beat with a repeat performance
3. #5 Yes This Time (15-1) – Winner of five in a row, and despite this not being a familiar distance, there is clearly upside with this colt who gets Saez in the irons
Race 10 – Grade I Whitney Stakes
1. #5 Mayfield (8-5) – Might need some help from Swiss Skydiver to set up the right pace scenario, but this colt has been too sharp and can let the others tire if they go early
2. #4 Knicks Go (6-5) – Dangerous if Silver State and Swiss Skydiver don’t pressure him early, and if he hits the top of the stretch with the lead, he has proven to be near impossible to catch
3. #1 By My Standards (10-1) – Wouldn’t be surprising if Silver State made it seven in a row, but this five year old is sneaky here and should be a nice price to play in exotics and multi-race bets
Race 11 – OC 80000n2x
1. #5 Empty Tomb (7-2) – In a pretty open race, sticking with the incredibly strong duo of Gaffalione and Maker with a horse dropping from the Stephen Foster seems like a good play
2. #4 Candy Tycoon (12-1) – Newly minted hall of famer Todd Pletcher had this four year old running in big races last year, and despite poor performances, he can compete at this level
3. #2 Superfecto (7-2) – Got caught up in a hot pace last time, so sitting off the leaders in third this time around gives this colt a good chance to hang on in the money
Race 12 – Alw 103000n1x
1. #6 Risky Mischief (7-2) – Has finished in the money in every try on turf, drops out of a stakes race, and gets Irad Ortiz back who has won both tries with this filly
2. #10 Bay Storm (6-1) – Franco and Thomas have a strong winning percentage together, and this first time lasix filly showed improvement last time in a win
3. #7 Time Limit (9-2) – Saez and Maker have been too good to discount this filly who has done her best running sitting off the leaders rather than trying to wire the field
We provide full-card picks and analysis for this afternoon’s races at Laurel Park.
We provide picks and analysis for this evening’s card at Charles Town Races.
We’ve got Delaware Park picks and horses to watch for this afternoon’s racing program.