Pimlico picks and ponderings July 24 2021

by John Piassek | Jul 24, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Horses round the first turn at Pimlico. Photo: Dottie Miller

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $21,480 Super High 5 — $1,593 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

5-1-4-3
This is a tough race to figure. Only two horses in the field have experience, and the other four go out for trainers who are not great first time out. #5 Local Motive (5/2) is one of those first-time starters, racing for trainer John Salzman Jr. Salzman did win with a first-time starter last Friday, as Buff My Boots crushed the field in a similar race. This one has a similar workout pattern, including a recent bullet at Timonium. #1 Sky of Gold (9/2) also has very sharp recent workouts for trainer Ann Merryman. I’ll watch the board on him: if he’s getting lots of action, he might be live. #4 Epic Rise (5/1) got bet on debut but was a flat fourth. At least he has the experience edge over his rivals.

RACE 2: BALD EAGLE DERBY, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/2 MILES (GRASS)

6-5-2-1

This is the first of four stakes races on today’s card. #6 Experienced (5/2) enters this race off a very sharp maiden win at Delaware Park, where he closed from far behind to get up and win by a nose. The second and third-place finishers both came back to win their next starts. He should enjoy the longer distance. #5 Wootton Asset (8/5) goes second off the layoff for Graham Motion, following a third-place finish in the Kent Stakes last out. He has the most class of anyone in the race, but will likely get overbet. #2 Indian Lake (2/1) surged and just missed in the Sussex Stakes last out, a much-improved race from his prior grass outing.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

7-4-2-3
#7 Eight Oaks (3/1) has hit the board in two straight tries at this level. Now, she finds a softer field than what she’s been seeing, and gets Jorge Ruiz in the saddle, who is probably the best jockey in this race. #4 Zig (8/5) was very sharp in her first start off the layoff last out, cruising to win a n/w2L claiming race on the front end. She’s the only one in the field who has not lost at this level. #2 Congress Hall (6/1) saved ground two starts back and just missed, then got fanned wide last out and flattened out. The inside draw here should help the cause.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: SENSIBLE LADY TURF DASH STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

5-4-6-1
#5 Golden Can (7/2) is taking what appears to be a big jump in class. She’s won twice in a row against starter optional claiming foes, and now tries stakes company. However, she’s caught a pretty soft stakes field, and has proven herself on this grass course numerous times. Has a big chance at a decent price. #4 So Gracious (3/1) races second off the layoff for Brittany Russell. She made her first start of the year last out at Delaware, and closed ground up the inside late after spinning her wheels in the early stages. Last September, she won first off the long break at Saratoga, and although she lost at Keeneland next out, her figure improved by a point. If she does that here, she’ll be a contender. #6 Can the Queen (5/1) almost went gate-to-wire in the Jameela Stakes last out, and has an excellent chance to wire them here as well.
RACE 5 – CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

5-7-1-4
#5 Get Lit (3/1) ran a career-best race last out when he almost won at this level. He stalked the pace and drew off in the stretch late, only to get caught by Championship Alley, who came back to win yesterday. #7 Golden G (5/2) is the only last-out winner in the bunch. As the odds-on favorite against maiden claiming company, he set the pace, got rebuffed, but came again and won going away. Claudio Gonzalez and Angel Cruz are always a tough trainer/jockey combo. #1 Scottsdale (7/2) has speed from the inside for Salzman Jr, and drops two levels from the $16,000 n/w2L condition.
RACE 6- BIG DREYFUS STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

6-2-1-3
#6 Sister Hanan (3/1) was beaten 1 1/2 lengths in the Ellis Park Turf last out, a race where the top two finishers set a very slow pace and left the closers no chance. This one has great closing speed and will be a threat if it’s even a mildly honest pace. #2 Counterparty Risk (6/5) won the Endeavour Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs earlier in the year. She regressed a bit when she finished third in the Eatontown Stakes last out, but if she can bounce back, she’ll be tough. However, considering her figures are not significantly higher than those of her opponents, it’s a bit of a risk taking her at low odds. #1 Sailingintothewind (5/1) looks like the lone speed and will try to steal it on the front end. She did that in her last start, defeating a n/w2x field going away.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 -ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

2-5-7-1
#2 Galatians (3/1) ran his best race of the year last out at this level, battling gamely in the stretch and losing by a neck to Crouchelli after rating just off the pace. This one has the option to go out and set the pace, or try to rate and pounce on the final turn. Either option would make him a strong contender. #5 Miami Mumbles (9/2) closed well to get second against weaker last out. While it’s a not insignificant jump in class, he earned his best figure in more than eight months in that spot, and Gonzalez claimed him out of that race. #7 Artistic Reason (7/2) stretches back out from six furlongs, but his best performances have come in routes. He broke his maiden in a one-turn mile last summer, then was second against Maryland-bred allowance company after a wide rally next out.
RACE 8: BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL TURF CUP, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)
1-6-3-2
Pixelate, who would’ve been one of the favorites, scratched yesterday, so we’re down to a field of five. The Maryland-bred #1 Field Pass (8/5) was a five-time stakes winner last year, but he has yet to find the winner’s circle in three races this year. However, this is a much easier field than anything he’s had to face so far in this campaign. He has good tactical speed and often packs a powerful middle punch. This’ll be his first start in his home state. #6 Ramsey Solution (5/2) finished second in his comeback effort at Churchill Downs last out, losing to Set Piece, who won the Wise Dan Stakes in his next start. This one is a threat to take them gate-to-wire. #3 Talk or Listen (8/1) just missed tracking down Somelikeithotbrown in the Dinner Party Stakes over this track two races back, and looks for a rebound after a flat race in the Prince George’s County Stakes last out.
RACE 9 – CLAIMING $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

4-5-1-3

#4 Tom Terrific (2/1) won against similar two back, then ran another big race to just miss last out at Delaware. He’s equaled or surpassed his career-top figure in his last two starts. #5 Pascal Chant (9/5) sat the trip off the pace last out and missed by half a length. He’s won twice this year with similar stalking trips. #1 Extra Medium (4/1) was third behind two of his rivals here last out, including Pascal Chant. His figure improved quite a bit when stepping down from the starter allowance level, and he should be able to carve out a nice home at these conditions.