Pimlico picks and ponderings July 10 2021

by | Jul 10, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Pimlico

Horses round the first turn at Pimlico. Photo: Dottie Miller

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $4,212 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

 

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

  • 5-3-1-4
  • Six horses were entered in this race, but only two figure to get attention in the wagering. #5 Shabang (8/5) gets the edge over #3 Alluring Rumba (6/5) in my book. Shabang has raced just three times, and improved to a brisnet figure of 61 in her most recent dirt race, which was her first start off a long layoff. Alluring Rumba, meanwhile has an 0-for-10 career mark, and has hit the board seven times without winning. That’s never a great sign. However, she is dropping for a career-low tag. #1 Galofmydreams (7/2) gets Angel Cruz back in the saddle for this one. She earned a figure of 66 on debut in February, but has had some sort of trouble in each of her last few dirt races.

RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $32,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

5-7-8-2 (DIRT: 3-5-7-1)

 #5 Hartel (2/1) showed blazing speed in his last few grass races in Southern California, but was unable to last. After his start two back, he was sent eastward to Charles Town’s top trainer, Jeff Runco. In his local debut, he battled with precocious stakes winner Golden Key, but couldn’t get by him and finished second. Now, this one drops in class and gets back to his preferred surface. #7 Street Silence (8/1) ran big in his first start off a long layoff, almost lasting on the lead before getting caught in the last eighth. Will challenge Hartel for the lead, but he had shown the ability to rate in the past. #8 H R H Jellybean (5/2) rolled by Street Silence in his last start and ended up a sharp second. The winner of that race, Golden Can, came back to win again yesterday. 

 

RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

  • 5-6-3-2
  • #5 New Frontier (5/2) has gone gate-to-wire in each of his last two starts, earning a big figure of 88 in his last start. There’s not much speed in here, so he should be able to cross over to the rail and the lead and earn another gate-to-wire win. #6 Kingston Pike (9/2) drops back to this level after a try at the n/w1x condition, and adds leading jockey Charlie Marquez. #3 Chargin Storm (8/5) closed impressively to win last out at Delaware Park, with a mark of 93, and earned an 86 two back in his first start of the year. He has the best late pace figures in the field, and is a big threat to track down New Frontier if that one tires on the lead. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

  • 6-7-9-1 (DIRT: 5-8-1-3)
  • #6 Adelaide Miss (8/5) ran a game race last out, losing a stretch battle with stablemate Out of Sorts, who won the Christiana Stakes at Delaware next out and may well be graded stakes bound. There’s no one like that to deal with in here. #7 Kitten With a Whip (5/2) won two in a row between here and Pimlico earlier in the year, then stepped up to this condition at Belmont Park and was beaten almost six lengths after a tough trip. I would say that this is an easier field, but with Adelaide Miss in the race, that’s not certain. Still, Kitten With a Whip looks like the best of the rest. #9 Serenade a Kitten (6/1) was sharp over the winter at Gulfstream Park, winning three races, but has been disappointing since coming up here. I’m willing to give her another chance if the price is right. Nice to see Jorge Vargas make his return to the circuit with this mount. 
  • RACE 5 – CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
  • 1-6-4-7
  • #1 Kwist (3/1) broke his maiden gate-to-wire on debut at Laurel Park last September, with a sharp figure of 75. He hasn’t found that form in two starts this year, but he’s dropping to the n/w2L claiming level for the first time in this spot. #6 Speightster Red (5/2) has run in the 70s in four of his five career dirt starts, and broke his maiden in his most recent dirt effort after a game, wide trip. #4 Lucian (8/1) got stuck in a funky pace scenario last out, and ended up flattening out to fourth. Finished second with a figure of 76 in a more normally-run race three races ago. 
  • RACE 6- MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)
  • 3-14-5-8 (DIRT: 7-14-1-2)
  • #3 Mayfield of Dreams (3/1) almost went gate-to-wire in a career-best effort last out, giving way late after setting a long, lonely early lead. She’s drawn towards the inside here, and faces a soft field without much speed. Plenty of reason to believe she can finish the wire job this time. #14 Abilify (8/1) made a strong move last out in her second race off the layoff, beaten 2 1/4 lengths against similar at Penn National. Could sneak through the cracks in the betting. #5 Coral Summer (6/1) was fourth behind Mayfield of Dreams last out, after getting hung wide and fading. Two races back, she earned a 71, and declined sharply last out. Looks to recover her top form here. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

  • 3-4-1-5
  • Usually a speedball, last time, #3 Ran Char (9/2) elected to rate right off the leaders. The move paid off, as she got up for a head victory, matching her career-best mark of 80. With plenty of speed signed on here, it may be in her best interest to once again stalk the leaders. One of those speedsters is the #4 Le Weekend (2/1), for trainer Jamie Ness and jockey Jevian Toledo. She snapped a long losing streak last out at Parx, getting up for the victory after battling on the lead every step. That determination might come in handy against #1 Dance and Dance (8/5), who drops in class for Claudio Gonzalez and will control the pace from the inside.
  • RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-BRED, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)
  • 2-3-5-4 (DIRT: 3-4-5-6)
  • #2 Tea in China (5/1) stormed from behind to break her maiden at ninth asking last out. This is a decent-sized jump in class, but she’s going third off the layoff and can take advantage of a likely fast pace in front of her. #3 Margie’s Heaven (5/2) tries grass for the second time in her career here. She made her lone grass start last July against similar, and briefly pressed the pace before fading. Since then, she’s matured quite a bit and has developed plenty of early speed. #5 Sick Pack Sara (6/1) is a very fast filly who got hung wide in a speed duel last out and backed up. When she gets to the lead by herself, she’s very tough to catch. Expect Charlie Marquez to be hyper-aggressive with her early on. 
  • RACE 9 – CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

5-1-2-6

  • #5 Miss Old Bay (2/1) drops to the n/w2L level for the first time, and hasn’t run worse than a 71 in her last three dirt starts. Should press the pace from the outside. #1 Cookies and Cream (3/1) finally put it together on the front end when going gate-to-wire in a maiden-breaking score last out. She’ll encounter pressure from Miss Old Bay, but will at least have the lead and the rail. #2 Fearless Lassie (7/2) cuts back around one turn and drops in class. She earned back-to-back figures of 71 when competing against similar earlier in the meet.

 

 

 

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About The Author

John Piassek

John Piassek has written about mid-Atlantic racing for The Racing Biz, Danonymous Racing, and his current website, the Daily Gallop. He graduated from Loyola University Maryland in 2018 with a degree in marketing, and is a member of the inaugural Maryland Thoroughbred Career Program class of 2017. Find John on twitter: @theyreoff.

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