Pimlico picks and ponderings July 3, 2021

by John Piassek | Jul 3, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Horses round the first turn at Pimlico. Photo: Dottie Miller

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $1,396,320 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

2-1-6-5
This is the first of eight on the Saturday card. The track was MUDDY all day yesterday after steady rain on Thursday. We’ll see how it’s dried out today. #2 Sheriff’s Kid (5/2) broke her maiden in her most recent dirt try, despite a subpar brisnet figure of 58. She had a steady string of figures in the 60s before that around two turns. Will be a serious contender if she can bounce back. #1 Acadian Girl (9/5) broke her maiden two races ago, going a one-turn mile at Laurel Park in February and earning a figure of 72. She goes second off the layoff and stretches back out to a route. She was a non-factor in her first start off the layoff against better, but has every chance to rebound. #6 Irish Brandi (2/1) is the only one in the field coming off a win. She made a solid closing move to beat a $16,000 maiden claiming field last out, with a career-best figure of 70.

RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $32,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

4-7-1-3

Handicapping today’s three grass races assuming they’ll be taken off the grass. #4 Enter Sandwoman (5/2) has run in the 70s in her last four dirt starts. She was a complete non-factor in her last start, but still ran a great figure relative to the others in this race. #7 Prinecess Doir (6/1) went gate-to-wire at Churchill Downs last out with a giant figure of 85. Dale Capuano claimed her out of that race; she adds blinkers here. #1 Beckon (7/2) almost went gate-to-wire last out on grass, but got nailed on the wire by the hard-charging up-and-comer Out of Sorts. Will be interested to see if she shows speed again here. She has good dirt form in her back lines, including a career peak of 83 last year.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 FURLONGS

4-5-2-1
Just one more rainbow pick 6 to fade before the mandatory payout on Sunday. If no one hits it today, the pool on Sunday will be several million dollars. #4 Heavenly Trip (2/1) is a $3,000 purchase making his debut for trainer Brittany Russell. He has a relatively long, steady worktab, and gets the riding services of Jevian Toledo, as Sheldon Russell is off at Delaware Park today. #5 Slaats (9/5) goes first out for Claudio Gonzalez, who won a 2-year-old race yesterday. That winner had a race under her belt, but this horse is also facing a softer field. Watch the wagering action. #2 Up for the Chance (6/1) flashed speed in his debut at Delaware last out, but backed up badly. Takes a drop in class here, and having any experience should help.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $8,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

7-6-5-3
#7 Calypso Ghost (3/1) makes her first start for Rodolfo Sanchez-Solomon and adds blinkers. She has loads of early speed from the outside, and drops in class from the starter allowance level at Delaware. She can set the pace or stalk. #6 Dat Deres Gold (4/1) has earned at least a 77 in four of her last six starts, and also has plenty of early speed. She beat a similar field at Laurel Park three races back despite plenty of pace pressure. #5 Joyful Noise (4/1) won at this level last out, in her first race in more than two months, earning a figure of 81. She’s once again in for the lower price tag of $6,000, and gets a slight weight break as a result.
RACE 5 – MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 5 FURLONGS

2-6-10-1
#2 Pederson’s Courage (9/5) got wagering action on debut, going off at 4/1. He was wide throughout after breaking from the outside post, but still closed well and lost by just a length. He’s got a much more favorable draw here and should improve second time out. #6 Thruster (7/2) has made very strong rallies on grass in his last two starts in New York, and ran figures in the upper 60s in each of his two dirt races. #10 Elusive Edge (3/1) has gone off as the favorite in back-to-back races at this level. He was right up on a fast pace both times, but hung on well to earn big figures both times.
RACE 6: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

2-5-7-8
#2 Ronomes (8/1) broke her maiden in her fourth career start last out, making a dramatic five-wide bid to win by a head. She declined a bit from her career-top figure of 71, which was earned two races back, but she’s lightly-raced, tries winners for the first time, and has good tactical speed. All that is a combination for a chance at improvement. #5 Bust Out Lady (4/1) was no match for the 1-5 winner of her last start, but she finished well-clear of the others to get second with a lifetime-top of 72. She stays at the bottom n/w2L level and adds leading jockey Charlie Marquez. #7 My Way or Else (5/1) ran in the 70s consistently earlier in the year, and looks for a rebound after some dull races with a drop in class.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS

12-4-6-3
#12 Day the Music Died (2/1) has hit the board in all seven starts this year, with three wins. He must have had something go amiss in his last start, as a claim was voided, and he hasn’t been seen since that May 7 outing. However, he’s had good workouts since then and should be back in top form. #4 Going to the Lead (4/1) has won twice at the Pimlico meet so far, and will live up to his name in the early stages. He couldn’t get to the front in his most recent try at this level, but that was against a much tougher field than he’ll see here. He’ll get a challenge on the lead from #6 Forced (3/1), who goes third off a long layoff and almost went gate-to-wire against a similar field on grass last out.
RACE 8: STARTER ALLOWANCE $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES
6-4-2-3
#6 Sammie Sunshine (6/5) has won three of her last five starts, two of which came at this level. She doesn’t have an ideal draw, but she has so much early speed, she should be able to get to the front all the same. #4 Nana’s Shoes (5/2) made wide rallies to hit the board in her last two tries at this level. Both times, she finished behind Sammie Sunshine. This one is a strong exotics candidate. #2 Bring Me Answers (6/1) runs figures in the 70s pretty consistently, and will likely challenge Sammie Sunshine for the lead. She couldn’t get to the front last time, and ended up chasing and tiring.