In the latest edition of our weekly feature with Maryland racing analyst Gabby Gaudet, she plays a Pick 3 and scopes out the seventh.
LATE PICK 3
The skinny: The late Pick 3 has a base unit of $0.50. Today’s features a maiden special weight for juveniles with 12 entered, an allowance with eight, and a nickel claimer with nine.
Notably: The maiden race features a handful of nicely bred horses, including sons of Lemon Drop Kid, City Zip, Tiznow, and More Than Ready.
Gabby’s take: “A maiden race with several first starters, an allowance with a lukewarm favorite, and a nickel claimer offer the possibility of a big payoff!”
[boxify cols_use =”3″ cols =”6″ position =”right” box_spacing =”5″ padding =”3″ background_color =”gray” background_opacity =”10″ border_width =”1″ border_color =”blue” border_style =”solid” height =”160″ ]GABBY’S PICK THREE TICKET
- Race 7 – 1, 7, 11
- Race 8 – 3, 4, 8
- Race 9 – 2, 4, 6, 9
- Ticket cost ($0.50 unit): $18[/boxify]
SCOPING OUT THE SEVENTH RACE[su_list icon=”icon: check”]
- The particulars: 2yo, 5 1/2 furlongs
- Conditions: Maiden special weight, $40,000 purse
- Top Selection: #1 Jackson P; $87,000 son of Two Punch is bred to sprint: dam Potomac Bend won three stakes, including G3 Cicada, going one turn… Also has some win-early aspect to his breeding, as sire Two Punch and dam both won at first asking; two sibs, including stake-winner Bluegrass Atatude, also won first out of the box… Trainer Cal Lynch has won with 9 of 22 2yo firsters debuting in MSW company in the last two years at a monster profit… Bottom line: The pick.
- Second choice: #7 Stress Test; Six-figure Into Mischief colt was a well-beaten seventh in his debut, but the news isn’t all bad. He showed good early lick, leading through a half-mile before backing out in a race won by a horse who’d been stakes-placed (against Indiana-breds) in his debut… Key stat: trainer Tony Dutrow has won with 11 percent of firsters in the last two years — but he’s won with a remarkable 33 percent of second starters; and he’s 7-for-19 with horses making their second start and putting on blinks for the first time… Bottom line: Too many positive stats to ignore.
- The chalk: #11 Magnum Opus; Nothing wrong with More Than Ready colt’s dirt debut, a fourth against similar last out in a race that’s produced three next-out winners to date… Was beaten just two in that race after bidding up to near-even terms with favorite and eventual winner Notional Debt at the head of the lane; was pipped in the last jump by two other runners to drop to fourth… Trainer Tony Dutrow replaces bug Michael Ritvo with journeyman Sheldon Russell… Showing two bullet works since last, both at five furlongs… Bottom line: Ignore at your peril.
(Featured image, of Ben’s Cat, by Laurie Asseo.)