Spa Selections 2026: Saratoga Picks July 4
Joseph Aiello
July 3, 2026
Cover photo by NYRA/Adam Coglianese.
In Spa Selections, Saratoga correspondent Joseph Aiello provides Saratoga picks for a handful of key races at Saratoga, including all of the exciting stakes action!
Follow along all meet with all the exciting action (and good betting opportunities)!
Check out our other handicapping here!
1. #7 Ashcroft Lane (5-1) – Won his debut in the slop in dominant fashion, and has a strong jockey trainer combo in limited tries together over the past year
2. #9 Rasasi (10-1) – Showed the most early speed of this group in his lone try, but adds distance and will need to contend with others in this step up in competition
3. #4 Pocket Listing (9-2) – Ran against state breds in California, but eight and a half lengths is nothing to sneeze at for this O’Neill trainee who was the odds on favorite in that one
4. #8 Regent’s Park (8-1) – Another who won on slop first time out and will need to improve, but Booked may be overbet so look for value underneath here
Race 7 – Grade I Belmont Oaks Stakes
1. #4 Faithful Departed (5-1) – If her last two tries are any indication, this filly may have the most upside of the bunch as she has clearly taken a step forward recently and keeps Jose Ortiz here
2. #10 Imaginationthelady (4-1) – Always in the mix with good class compared to this group and should be making a late charge with her strong turn of foot at this level
3. #8 Abashiri (5-2) – Hasn’t won in her two stakes tries, but the connections make this filly by Frankel tough to ignore in an evenly matched field
4. #1 Just Aloof (8-1) – Prat left this filly to ride Fitz Right who has been sharp recently, but this Brown trainee should like the extra ground and has been running on well in her last two
Race 8 – Grade II Suburban Stakes
1. #7 Antiquarian (3-1) – Probably ran his best race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year here, and despite he and Phileas Fogg looking better a year ago, this horse should get back to form after a tough Met Mile that didn’t suit him
2. #6 Phileas Fogg (8-1) – Was bested by Antiquarian late last summer, but was able to beat him in this race last year and will need to return to that form to have chances
3. #2 Forged Steel (4-1) – Simply too strong last time out at this distance to ignore, but will have to contend with the speed of Phileas Fogg who has won twice over this track
4. #10 Original Sin (10-1) – Grey colt by Curlin should adjust well to distance if Gaffalione keeps him mid pack and enters with good upside at a price as he steps up in class
Race 9 – Grade I Belmont Derby Stakes
1. #3 Remember Mamba (7-2) – Seems to be steadily improving for DeVaux but needs to stay a bit closer to the lead than last time and may not get the perfect set up here despite his talent
2. #10 Touch of Fire (5-1) – Has some trip versatility and may have taken a step forward last time in his impressive Audubon win plus has top flight connections here
3. #8 West End Kid (3-1) – Looks to have no issues with the distance and won over this track last time out as a winner of three straight for Walden
4. #9 Title Role (5-1) – Pacific Avenue and Bottas have upside in this spot, but this colt has the potential to win here if his form translates to this course
Race 10 – OC 110000b
1. #5 Reasoned Analysis (8-1) – First time gelding has the back class to compete and should offer good value off a year long layoff with the right connections to take advantage here
2. #8 Bramito (5-1) – A winner of three straight, this gelding by Gun Runner won twice here last summer and has performed well at this distance recently with the top end efforts to win here
3. #7 Capital Idea (4-1) – Two for two over this track and drops from a grade III where he finished in the mix with good class compared to the rest of this field
4. #3 Full Screen (7-2) – Has yet to win at this distance despite nine tries and appears to prefer nine furlongs, but shows good consistency on the dirt and has run well in these race conditions
Race 11 – Mdn 100k
1. #1 Morning Prayer (7-2) – Likely a winner if he repeats his last try, but may end up preferring slightly shorter distances on turf where he has shown improvement
2. #4 No Ordinary Love (8-1) – Has shown good consistency and adds blinkers here with the distance stretch against a field that hasn’t shown much yet at this distance and level
3. #3 Lyn’s Legacy (5-1) – First time starter by Medaglia d’Oro has solid connections and gets an edge over others who have faltered in their starts amongst similar competition
4. #11 Silly Season (2-1) – May be too short a price due to the connections, but still has a bit more upside than Force of Mischief and Zap That Ghost who ran solid in their most recent tries
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