Triple Crown: Wood Memorial picks and analysis
100 Kentucky Derby points on the line
Joseph Aiello
April 3, 2026
Struggling as a Derby prep this century, the Wood Memorial is the last of three 100-point preps this weekend for those looking to qualify for the Run for the Roses. While some winners have gone on to find success later in their careers, the overall inconsistency of this prep with multiple uncompetitive Derby longshots has placed it a step below other final points races.
This year’s baker’s dozen look to put an end to the poor Derby performances, as a crowded field competes for one last gasp to get into the Churchill gate.
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The four runners to keep an eye on break from the two inside and outside posts in Napoleon Solo (7/2), Talk to Me Jimmy (6/1), Buetane (8/1), and Iron Honor (5/2). All with experience in points races, these colts have each won a prep race over this course with the exception of Buetane.
Iron Honor starts from the outside as the morning line favorite for Chad Brown after a Gotham win in just his second try. Facing a weaker Gotham field, Iron Honor went off as the favorite despite his inexperience and pulled clear late. Now adding a furlong, this colt will have to prove that he can win with a similar style against a tougher group, but he already has 50 points to qualify for the Derby. Returning jockey Manny Franco doesn’t seem too concerned with the added distance though, as he has become familiar with Iron Honor in the mornings as his training rider.
“I think this is a very talented 3-year-old,” Franco told NYRA. “He is 2-for-2 in his career, so I’m just happy to be on his back. I think the distance will be no problem, with the size he has and he has Chad, too. He is a great trainer.”
From the Baffert barn, Buetane breaks to the immediate inside of Iron Honor after disappointing in the Virginia Derby. A starter in two points races and four straight stakes, this colt has yet to win after his maiden debut and has not distinguished himself at this level.
Typically coming from mid pack, Buetane may need some pace to aim at to add to his 16 Derby points.
THE PICKS
1. #1 Napoleon Solo (7-2) – Out of gas after six furlongs last out in the Fountain of Youth, but his breathtaking Champagne win says the talent’s there.
2. #13 Iron Honor (5-2) – Two starts and two wins is nothing to sneeze at; tries two turns for the first time and must negotiate outside post in a bulky field.
3. #2 Talk to Me Jimmy (6-1) – Two wins by a combined 16+ lengths since adding blinkers. Must take another step forward today.
4. #12 Buetane (8-1) – Baffert trainee has been the beaten favorite in three of his last four and needs a bounceback after bland Virginia Derby outing.
Talk to Me Jimmy breaks from post two off a layoff from his impressive Withers win in early February. This Rudy Rodrgiuez trainee won that try by a convincing 11 lengths in a gate to wire effort. Talk to Me Jimmy should be gunning for the lead once again, with no clear-cut speed in this group. The inside-breaking Napoleon Solo may be the lone pace threat if he runs back to his Champagne win from October, along with longshot Red Zone Runner (30/1). If Talk to Me Jimmy can set modest fractions, he may only have to hold off Iron Honor against a group that tends to finish late.
Napoleon Solo started his three-year-old season in Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth following a dominant win in the Champagne at two. After setting a ridiculous 44 ⅕ half in the Champagne, he up close before fading to fifth in the Fountain of Youth. Scratching out of last week’s Arkansas Derby for Chad Summers, this colt looks to rebound and prove that last year’s form wasn’t a fluke. If he shows anything close to his Champagne first half here, this colt may set things up for a longshot by tiring the leaders Talk to Me Jimmy and Iron Honor. Napoleon Solo needs to improve to win at nine furlongs even if he controls the pace, and still looks for points with just fifteen entering this race.
Two of the last five Wood Memorial winners were over 50/1, so a strong longshot performance is a distinct possibility. Riley Mott’s Albus (12/1) scratched from the Florida Derby last weekend, and could be sitting off the leaders early. D. Whitworth Beckham’s Ocelli (20/1) dropped out of the Blue Grass to aim here, and is one that could close into the top five with a late finish. The always dangerous Bill Mott saddles Steel, who was a winner in his debut but steps up in class. Others face a tough test in their last gasp effort to sneak into the Derby, as they need a top two finish to have a chance at qualification.
The Wood Memorial has a 6:34 PM EST post time as the twelfth race on Aqueduct’s Saturday card.
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