Triple Crown: Fountain of Youth picks and analysis
Rugged group vies for 50 Kentucky Derby points
Joseph Aiello
February 27, 2026
One of three 50-point Kentucky Derby preps this weekend is Gulfstream Park’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Last captured by eventual Kentucky Derby winner and 2025 Horse of the Year Sovereignty, this race has long been an important launching point for strong Gulfstream prep fields.
Winning here all but punches a ticket to the Run for the Roses, as a field of 10, including several viable win candidates, competes for a trip to Churchill Downs in May.
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Chad Summers’ Napoleon Solo makes his first start since October, though that October race was an impressive romp in the Grade I Champagne. The colt by Liam’s Map–Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy should be among the pace setters, possibly pressured by Todd Pletcher’s Jackson Hole.
As the lone graded stakes winner in the field, Napoleon Solo holds a class edge and will be tough if he reproduces his Champagne effort, where he set a blistering 44.24 half-mile en route to victory. The presence of aggressive rider Kendrick Carmouche suggests another forward placement, as Summers has big aspirations.
“We came here with a plan,” Summers told Gulfstream’s publicity team. “We looked and saw Sovereignty had six breezes before his Fountain of Youth last year, and we decided to make that plan as close as we could.”
Napoleon Solo is the 7/2 second choice on the morning line.
Favored at 2/1 is Commandment, a runaway winner of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 3 and Brad Cox’s lone entrant. The colt by Into Mischief–Sippican Harbor, by Orb has improved rapidly through three starts, pulling away to win by nearly seven lengths last time.
That victory came in a one-turn mile, however, leaving questions as he stretches out around two turns.
THE PICKS
1. #10 Solitude Dude (5-1) – Joseph trainee unchallenged in three starts to date, looks to go 4-for-4.
2. #7 Napoleon Solo (7-2) – Dazzled in the G1 Champagne last out, though that was back in October.
3. #4 Commandment (2-1) – Cruised home almost seven clear in the Mucho Macho Man over the strip in latest.
4. #1 Jackson Hole (8-1) – 2-for-2 to start his career, including a win at this 1 1/16-mile trip.
“He performed well in the Mucho Macho Man, and I love the way he’s been training,” Cox said. “The gallop outs in his works give us confidence he will handle the two turns.”
Headlining Saffie Joseph’s trio is undefeated Solitude Dude (5/1), who breaks from post ten after three wins in as many starts. Stretching out from a seven-furlong Swale victory, he is likely to be involved early after wiring that field. While distance remains the key question, Solitude Dude has dominated his rivals to date, and Joseph expressed confidence in his colt’s ability.
“I think talent-wise, ability-wise, he’s the fastest horse in the race on figures,” Joseph said, “but he has to go out and prove it around two turns.”
His recent work suggested he could handle the mile-and-a-sixteenth distance, making this a pivotal test for his Derby aspirations.
Outside the top trio are several runners with potential. Jackson Hole (8/1), breaking from the rail for Todd Pletcher, enters unbeaten in two starts after a five-and-a-half-length allowance win at Fair Grounds at this distance. Purchased for $1.3 million as a yearling, he may hold an advantage, having already succeeded at 8 ½ furlongs, and could add pressure to a contested early pace if John Velazquez sends him forward.
“Hopefully, he breaks alertly and gets good position going into the first turn,” Pletcher told Gulfstream. “He’s not a headstrong horse. I think he’ll cooperate with whatever Johnny decides.”
His early positioning could play a major role in shaping the race’s pace dynamics.
Saffie Joseph’s Bravaro (8/1) and Danny Gargan’s Talkin (15/1) both need improvement off recent efforts but could benefit from fast early fractions as late-running types.
Bill Mott’s Chief Wallabee (9/2) won on debut and makes just his second start here. But he earned enough confidence from connections to step directly into stakes company. Likely to settle midpack, he enters with expectations yet still must improve to contend.
Florida-bred Rockies Balboa (20/1) from the Dale Romans barn has shown steady progress but faces both distance and class questions. With several front-running contenders near the top of the field, the opening half-mile may ultimately decide the outcome as this developing group looks to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
The Fountain of Youth Stakes has a post time of 6:11 p.m. EST as the fourteenth race on Gulfstream’s Saturday card.
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