Triple Crown: Gotham Stakes picks and analysis
Maryland-based Balboa faces eight others
Joseph Aiello
February 27, 2026
Going a mile on the dirt at Aqueduct, a field of nine will contest the Grade 3 Gotham with 50 Kentucky Derby points awarded to the winner. Even with fields that have routinely been a clear step below other prep races this century, this race could still be the beginning for a three-year-old colt that hasn’t yet discovered his racing potential.
With a win here, any of these runners can find their way into the starting gate at Churchill, which sometimes is all it takes to capture one of racing’s greatest victories.
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The most experienced runner is Balboa (6/1), the inside-breaking Brittany Russell trainee with seven lifetime starts. The colt by Not This Time–Tap of War, by War Front already has nine Derby points with top-five finishes in three points races. Although he came up short in previous Aqueduct preps in the Remsen and Jerome, he has shown consistency and should be with the first grouping from the break. Balboa still must answer questions, however, as he has yet to win at a route distance and faded to second last time in a four-horse Jerome field.
“As disappointed as you are to lose, you still have to appreciate the effort,” Russell said afterwards. “He’s keeping good company and hopefully he continues to progress.”
Sheldon Russell rides as Balboa looks for a breakthrough win against a mostly unproven group.
Two of his biggest challengers break just outside him in Saffie Joseph’s Hammond (5/1) and Michael Maker’s Ohio-bred Crown the Buckeye (4/1). Both came up short in recent stakes tries but have kept good company and should be contenders from a class perspective.
Crown the Buckeye could dictate the early pace, having shown speed in all five career starts.
Last out in the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds, he led for the first half-mile but faded to eighth in the final five-sixteenths.
Peter Proscia of co-owner Paradise Farms Corp told NYRA’s press office, “We expect a good race… He’s an honest horse and he tries all the time.”
THE PICKS
1. #2 Hammond (5-1) – Makes second start of the year and first beyond 7f.
2. #3 Crown the Buckeye (4-1) – Speedy sort likely to appreciate the cutback in distance, which may not bode well in May but should work fine here.
3. #1 Balboa (6-1) – Maryland-based runner has proven he fits with these.
4. #6 Iron Honor (6-5) – Looks to back up auction price and flashy maiden score while stretching out in second career outing.
Hammond has raced exclusively at Gulfstream Park in four starts and most recently finished a strong third to Solitude Dude in the Swale. Improvement off that effort could make him tough, though he has yet to try beyond seven furlongs. His Beyer speed figures have improved in each start, and a recent four-furlong breeze in 47 4/5 suggests he remains sharp. Likely to sit midpack, he may depend on an honest early pace to maximize his chances.
Two runners who could sit just behind Crown the Buckeye early are Iron Honor from the Chad Brown barn and Creole Chrome trained by Joe Sharp.
Iron Honor, a $475,000 auction purchase as a yearling, broke his maiden in December at first asking and steps into stakes company as the 6/5 morning-line favorite. After stalking the pace in that six-furlong debut over this course, he dueled in the stretch and proved best late. He earned a gaudy 95 Beyer that day while beating two next out winners.
Louisiana-bred Creole Chrome brings slightly more experience with three starts and enters off an allowance win at Fair Grounds. Sitting farther back early, he also dueled through the stretch at six furlongs and never relinquished the lead as the odds-on favorite. Cross-entered in a state-bred stake Saturday at the Fair Grounds, he may head in that direction; but if he shows up for the Gotham, he’ll need to improve.
With several others stepping up in class or coming off disappointing efforts, a unique race shape could determine who qualifies for the Kentucky Derby. Still behind the division’s top three-year-olds, the winner will have work to do before May if connections pursue the Derby trail. Even as the New York prep circuit has struggled this century, lightly raced runners can improve quickly and put themselves in position to capture the Blanket of Roses.
The Grade 3 Gotham Stakes is the tenth race on Aqueduct’s Saturday card with a post time of 5:18 p.m. EST.
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