In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

First post time: 12:00 p.m.

Carryovers: 
Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 (races 5-10) — $7,954
Jackpot Super High 5 (race 6)— $2,999
Early Pick 5 (races 1-5) — $0
Late Pick 5 (races 6-10) — $0

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RACE 1: CLAIMING $12,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

2-8-7-5

This is, I think, just the second time this meet that the card is not scheduled to begin with a grass race. The other time was Maryland Million day. #2 Lou’s Birthday (6-1) was a complete non-factor against a much better field than this one last out. However, he won two starts back on grass, and ran a very respectable brisnet figure of 77 when fourth against tougher three starts ago. His only bad dirt races have come when he was outclassed (such as last time) and when he races on an off track. At this distance, on a fast track, against these rivals, he should run his best race. #8 Uniwinner (3-1) loves coming in second; he’s done so at this level three times in a row. He sits the same stalking trip every time and looms a threat in the stretch, but just can’t get the job done. He’s a good horse to key underneath in the exotics. #7 Daddy Yankee (9-2) also drops in class after finishing fourth last out, in a race that’s better than it looks at first glance. He fell well behind against solid starter optional claiming foes, and while he was no match for runaway winner Shootersgottashoot, he finished only two lengths back for second.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

6-9-7-3

#6 Artist Mark (2-1) broke his maiden at 10th asking two starts ago, then ran a game race in his first start against winners last out. He battled for the early lead with Who Says So (who’s also in this race) and outfinished him by 2 ¾ lengths. However, he proved no match for Straight to Water, who sat a perfect trip off the duel and kicked away to win by 6 ½ lengths. He’s dropping into a non-winners of two claimer for the first time, and has the ability to sit off the pace if he wants. This lowers the chance of him getting involved in another destructive duel. #9 Oleg (9-5) races second off the claim by Kieron Magee, and goes for the first time on dirt for that barn. He ran some big figures as a 2-year-old at Gulfstream Park and has every chance to get back to that form. #7 Chase a Dream (12-1) raced on the pace and held second in his final two starts of the Delaware Park season. There’s plenty of speed to his inside, but if he’s fast enough early, he can clear and become the most potent of the frontrunners.

RACE 3: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

9-7-4-5

Two of the nine horses here have beaten winners. I’ll make them my top two picks, one at a much bigger price than the other. Brittany Russell shipped #9 Peach Tie (7-5) to Keeneland last out. It proved a worthwhile trip, as she easily beat a starter allowance field with a 85, her third figure in the 80s in as many career races. She looks to sit a great trip stalking the pace on the outside, and will be very tough to beat if she runs her race. #7 Last Gift (20-1) won going away against $25,000 claimers last out. It was her second consecutive figure in the 70s, far and away her two best numbers after starting her career with three up-the-track finishes. This is definitely a jump in class, but she’s in improving form and could surprise. #4 Miss Fulton Gal (6-1) wanted no part of a mile in the White Clay Creek Stakes last out. However, she easily broke her maiden going six furlongs two starts back, and should run much better cutting back to that distance.

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

1A-4-6-8

Both halves of the Jamie Ness-trained coupled entry look very dangerous. Even if only one goes postward, that half would be a very deserving favorite. Between the two, I lean towards #1A Love Me Not (6-5), as he has very potent early speed and is more recently raced, having finished second at Aqueduct in mid-October after setting the pace. It’s not often you see horses like Bracket Buster and Journalism in running lines for a second-level allowance here, but that’s the case with #4 National Law (3-1). He made his last two starts in the Haskell Stakes and the Monmouth Pegasus Stakes, and was soundly beaten both times. However, he’s already won around two turns twice, he has great closing speed, and he gets Lasix for the first time. Jorge Duarte has had a slow start to the meet, but he did send out an impressive maiden winner on Saturday. #6 Crossland (20-1) doesn’t win too often, but he’s hit the board a few times this year at good odds, and can easily do the same thing here.

RACE 5: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-RESTRICTED, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

10-4-8-2

#10 Lady Ensign (3-1) went gate-to-wire against open first-level foes last out, and now drops in against Maryland-restricted rivals at the same condition. This is her worst draw in a while, but she did win from the 11-hole on the Tesio undercard in April. #4 Chickahominy (5-1) has found trouble in her first two starts of the fall season, but ran back-to-back marks in the mid-80s over the summer at Colonial Downs. We know the ability to blow this field away is in there somewhere; can she avoid trouble this time? #8 Money’s Worth (5-1) makes her first start since an exciting win against non-winners of two types in late August at Colonial. Graham Motion and Jorge Ruiz have teamed up for five grass winners at the meet.

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

1A-9-6-3

Once again, Jamie Ness has a very dangerous coupled entry. #1A Wild Vine (2-1) is my choice of the two. He’s won here twice on the year, and most recently hit the board in a pair of Pennsylvania-bred stakes races at Parx. He ran at least a 95 in both of those contests, something no one else here has done in each of their last two starts. #9 Howgreatisnate (10-1) captured the New Castle at Delaware two starts ago over Haileysfirstnotion, who came back to run a big third in the Maryland Million Sprint. He’s done his best recent work at six furlongs, but he’s won a stakes at a mile and 70 yards, so the distance should be no problem. #6 Quick to Accuse (4-1) closed well off a slow pace behind some solid New York-bred rivals last out in the Empire Classic. He can be a bit inconsistent, but on his best day, he has a strong kick that would play well down the long stretch of the one-turn mile.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-RESTRICTED, 6 FURLONGS

10-7-3-2

#10 Wickeddivine (12-1) returned from a 10 ½-month break two starts ago and finished third behind Bold Diversion with an impressive 91. Bold Diversion won a first-level sprint last Friday as the favorite. This one found the waters of the Maryland Million Sprint a bit too deep, but he now drops back in class and appears to have a very high ceiling. #3 Change My World (9-2) picked up his first win in a while in an open first-level contest last out. He’s slowly improved throughout the year and looks primed for another big effort. #7 Great Heavens (5-1) got up for second behind Change My World in his last dirt try. He’s another type who doesn’t win often, but likes to get checks and must be considered for underneath spots.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

8-7-10-2

#8 Tour Jete (9-2) led most of the way last out at Aqueduct and faded to second. She hasn’t set very fast fractions in many of her recent starts, but the only other serious speed is Central Casting, who is unproven going this far on grass. Getting Jorge Ruiz aboard for the first time can’t hurt. #7 Amie’s Symphony (5-1) has rapidly climbed the class ladder with three consecutive wins, many of them against next-out winners. The only horse she’s lost to on grass is graded stakes-placed My Brazilian Girl. #10 Lute Warm (9-5) won three in a row on grass last year, then went to the sidelines after two flat efforts to conclude her season. Brittany Russell got her back on the worktab in late August, and at this point, might consider this more of a prep for a spot at Fair Grounds. Still, her upside can’t be discounted.

RACE 9: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-RESTRICTED, 6 FURLONGS

5-1-4-6

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