In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

First post time: 12:10 p.m.

Carryovers: 
Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 (races 5-10) — $4,627
Jackpot Super High 5 (race 6) — $1,131
Early Pick 5 (races 1-5) — $0
Late Pick 5 (races 6-10) — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

3-10-1-7 (DIRT: 1-12-9-8)

#3 Running Rio (7-5) makes her first start for the Anthony Farrior barn and has a massive speed and pace edge over her rivals. She’s run a brisnet figure of at least 77 in each of her four starts, something most of these have never done at all. She also has blazing fast early pace figures, having honed her speed against better rivals in California, Florida, and New York. If she breaks well, she’ll be very tough to catch. #10 Query (12-1) has been slowly rounding back into form after missing the first half of her 3-year-old season, including a pair of respectable efforts on the Penn National lawn in her last two races. She showed speed as a 2-year-old, including a gate-to-wire score at Penn in November, so she might try to at least keep in close attendance to Running Rio. #1 Ade (8-1) hasn’t raced on grass before. She closed well on dirt last out, and has found a relatively easy spot to try the lawn for the first time. 

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE

6-4-1-3

Both of my top picks, #6 Hard Freeze (3-1) and #4 Golden Sand (9-5), scratched out of a 5 ½-furlong race on Friday to run here.The former was part of an odds-on Jamie Ness coupled entry on debut. He fell far behind early in the five-furlong contest, but rallied well to grab fourth. Jaime Rodriguez was named to ride on Friday, but with J-Rod out of town, Matilda Burnham gets the ride. The latter also closed well on debut, rallying for second behind an experienced rival. He would’ve faced a more inexperienced bunch on Friday, which would’ve given him an advantage. Still, he’ll be tough if he runs his usual race. #1 Pippin the Warrior (9-2), one of two firsters in the field, has put in back-to-back works at a mile for Hugh McMahon. This suggests that he’s been primed to go long as first asking, unlike his rivals, who have larger question marks at this distance.

RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

11-1-12-8 (DIRT: 6-5-1-4)

My top three picks come out of the same race at this condition on September 7. #11 Scholar (10-1) went off as the 6-5 favorite that day, but stumbled very badly at the start and never had much of a chance from there. The horses who were in the top four at the opening quarter stayed there until the end, setting very modest fractions along the way. Given the circumstances, Scholar’s fifth-place effort was impressive, and she’ll be tough to beat with a cleaner trip. #1 Ecliptical Gina (8-1) was one of the pacesetters that day; she was third at the opening quarter and stayed there pretty much the whole way. She’s taken big steps forward in each of her three grass starts, and should get a nice trip near the pace on the rail. #12 Learning to Fly (8-1) broke her maiden on this track in May, and will hope to work out a trip just off the pace without losing too much ground. A better draw would’ve made her a more serious contender.

RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3-6-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

6-8-4-3

#6 Valerie Street (2-1) ran a 74 and a 68 in her last two dirt starts. None of her rivals have run that fast on dirt in over a year. She’s made nine starts, making her one of the more experienced horses in the field. Still, she’s in improving form and faces an easier field than she did last out. #8 Spirit and Truth (6-1) ran a 75 on debut last May, but hasn’t run nearly that fast since then. She went to the sidelines after tailing off this spring, returns here, and has shown just enough recent promise to make her an upset threat. #4 Littlegirljustice (9-2) improved seven points to a 65 second time out on grass last out, and switches to dirt for the first time. She pressed the pace and faded last time, but it was the first time she showed that much speed, and could be dangerous on the lead. 

RACE 5: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

7-6-2-1

#7 Who Says So (2-1) ran similar races at this level in her last two starts at Colonial Downs, surging and just missing by less than a length. She ran a career-best 76 last out, the best last-out mark in the race by eight points. #6 Candycrumbs (5-2) finished a game second in his first try at this level last out, in a race where Nola Boss broke on top and ran them off their feet. This one switches back to dirt after a pair of disappointing races on the lawn. #2 Twice Gold (6-1) was eased after bleeding last out, and makes his first start since that June 20 start. He’s had plenty of chances against non-winners of two types, but he can also run in the 70s consistently, something most of these cannot. He’s a good horse to key in underneath spots.

RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3-6-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

7-12-6-10 (DIRT: 12-4-5-6)

#7 Stanza (4-1) found himself in the national spotlight for a very unfortunate reason last out. He was in the midst of a big move at Colonial when he was cut off and fell, causing serious injury to jockey Tyler Conner. He came back to the worktab in mid-September and has put in two good drills for owner/breeder/trainer Lizzie Merryman. He ran a strong 77 on debut at Delaware Park, likely would’ve run somewhere in that range again if he didn’t fall, and now faces a pretty soft field while getting to circumvent the claiming tag. #12 The Commish (9-2) ran huge on the first first off an 11-month layoff two starts back, then faded after a rough break last out. He makes his first start off a two-month freshening, as well as his first local appearance after three starts against fellow New York-breds. He might be fast enough to clear to the lead even from his far outside post. #6 Katmandu (8-1) showed some late punch on debut at Charles Town, and now tries grass for the first time while luring Arnaldo Bocachica in for the mount.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

5-12-3-8 (DIRT: 11-8-7-9)

We’ll try another promising Lizzie Merryman trainee here. #5 Monsieur Candy (5-1) ran a game race against first-level foes last out at Colonial. He battled throughout with well-regarded Mike Trombetta trainee Billionaires Row, who beat winners in his previous start at Saratoga. Monsieur Candy ultimately prevailed by a neck, running at least an 85 for the third time in his last four starts. #12 Swill (9-2) won at this level at Colonial three starts ago, and pressed the pace and hit the board against these same types in his next two races. He has enough early speed to establish good position even from the outside. #3 Speed Figures (6-1) has gone gate-to-wire in four of his last seven starts, and almost wired them last out at Monmouth Park before getting run down by Gold Trust, who won the Joey P. Handicap in his next start. As noted, there’s plenty of speed in this race, but he’ll at least be able to protect rail position. 

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

5-3-4-6

No one in here has a lot of speed, but #5 Rowsie Express (5-2) has at least been close to the pace in many of her recent starts. If Mychel Sanchez is aggressive enough, he can put this mare on the lead and let her cruise on what could be a largely uncontested lead. #3 Reply (2-1) ran a huge race in the Weber City Miss Stakes in April, closing off a slow pace and losing by less than a length. She was well-beaten in her next three starts, but those races were all against better rivals than the ones she’ll see here. Perhaps the class drop will inspire her a bit. #4 Audibly (6-1) has great closing speed and is reunited with Jaime Rodriguez, who won aboard her at this track and distance in February. 

RACE 9: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

7-2-1-9 (DIRT: 6-4-2-5)

#7 Summer Whirl (3-1) was outkicked against New York-bred allowance rivals in her last start, but closed strongly and just missed versus those types two grass races back. This will be her first Maryland start after computing exclusively in New York to begin her career, and she gets Jorge Ruiz aboard for the first time. #2 Stop Watch (5-1) made her grass debut a winning one last out, taking advantage of a fast pace to win professionally at Delaware. She’s the only one in the field who hasn’t lost against winners, and the only one without a loss on this surface. #1 Gogo Chanel (5-2) wore down early leader Timeless Rose last out, but couldn’t find off the surging Princess Javoncia and was forced to settle for second.

RACE 10: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3-6-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

12-2-3-14 (DIRT: 12-5-6-4)

#12 Stars Align (7-2) ran a career-best 72 last out, where she rallied well for second, but couldn’t get past the well-meant Fahnee, one of many winners from the Suzanne Stettinius barn in the early days of the meet. This one’s lightly-raced and in quickly improving form. #2 My Grey Humor (3-1) finished a neck behind Stars Align last out, rebounding nicely from a flat effort at Monmouth two races ago. She’s faced better for most of her career, ran well when dropped to this level in that most recent race, and should keep it up staying at this level. #3 Hail No (5-1) just missed in her first two starts of the season, and looks for a rebound after a slim-excuse try last out. She at least has a good workout under her belt since then. 

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