In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

First post time: 11:30 a.m.

Carryovers: 
Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 (races 8-13) — $0
Jackpot Super Hi 5 (race 13) — $0
Early Pick 5 (races 1-5) — $0
Late Pick 5 (races 9-13) — $0

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RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $35,000, 3-6-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

8-2-6-7

#8 Bold Factor (5-1) showed speed and stopped badly in two starts against maiden special weight types at Gulfstream Park. He’s taking a big drop in class and cutting back from a mile, and with his speed, he could lead them all the way. #2 Isaiah Fiftythree (6-1) outran his odds on debut, racing off the pace while wide and holding fourth at 43-1. Ferris Allen trainees tend to do much better second time out than first. #6 J C’s Boys (7-2) outkicked Isaiah Fiftythree for third in that same race. He was also wide every step of the way after breaking from the extreme outside post. He doesn’t appear to have as much early speed as the Allen runner, but he could still take a step forward at second asking.

RACE 2: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

1-3-9-2

Many of these are coming out of the same race at this condition on April 12. #1 Parkes (6-1) raced behind horses most of the way, but closed with interest when clear and was beaten less than two lengths in his first start since November 21. He’ll get a big rider switch to Flavien Prat and would be a tremendous bet at anything near his morning line. #3 Firmantown (8-1) looked like the main speed on paper in that race, but he wasn’t used aggressively, made a mild bid, and lost by two lengths. He’s drawn further to the inside this time, so he’ll have an easier time getting to the rail and the lead if he wants.#9 Great Heavens (10-1) closed well for third against Maryland-restricted rivals three weeks ago. While he hasn’t won in a while, he’s pretty dependable for an underneath spot.

RACE 3: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

6-2-3-7

The way I see it, Brittany Russell has them surrounded in here. She trains my top two picks. #6 Surfside Moon (7-2) made his first start for the Russell barn a winning one last out, rallying from off a hot pace to win at Penn National. He’s shown flashes of promise throughout his career and looks ready to put it all together. #2 Derbyness (4-1) has won three of his last four starts, including an easy win at this distance last out where he raced on the pace and kicked away to a 6 1/4-length win. He improved dramatically in that race, which was his second race off a 10-month break. #3 Lonesome Road (6-5) is clearly the most talented horse in the race. He’s won his two starts on this track by a combined 14 3/4 lengths, both times while barely being asked to run. He’s making his first start since a flat third-place effort in the Boston Handicap at Colonial Downs in March. While his ceiling is very high, it’s hard to take such a low price on a horse who’s never raced around two turns on dirt before coming off such a dull race.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

8-9-4-1

#8 Barzini (7-5) gets class relief in his first start since July 9. He ran brisnet figures of 85 and 86 in his two starts before going on the sidelines, which is much faster than anyone else in here has run recently. As long as he runs close to his usual race first off the bench, he’ll be hard to beat. #9 Noble Jon (8-1) was well-bet at this level last out, but showed little punch. We’ll see if he improves first off the Mike Geralis claim, who typically does well with that angle. #4 Tough Workout (15-1) chased gate-to-wire winner Bushido in his first start off a five-month layoff last out. Now, he looks like the main speed while keeping the white-hot Jorge Ruiz in the saddle.

RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $35,000, 3-6 YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

5-7-1-11

#5 See Thar Bar (6-1) closed with great interest to get third in his first start off a six-month break last out, one of the few who made up ground on the grass that day. He’s also the only one to run in the 70s in each of his last two grass races. #7 Hard Stance (20-1) rallied well for third on debut at Colonial last out, and now switches to grass for the first time. Two of his four winning siblings won on grass. #1 Country Bumpkin (4-1) also has some grass pedigree and looks to improve after a poor break did him in first off a seven-month layoff last out.

RACE 6: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-6 YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

8-7-2-6

#8 Daring Grace (9-2) makes her stateside debut after showing improving form towards the end of last year in Ireland. Three of her siblings- Simply Breathless, Breath Away, and Take a Breath- have won graded stakes races on grass in the U.S. This one’s been working steadily since early March for a spot like this one, and should be primed for a great effort. #7 Sota Summers (3-1) was a solid-closing fifth on debut at Aqueduct last May, but hasn’t raced since then. Brittany Russell tends to do well with horses off such long layoffs, and Irad Ortiz picking up the mount is encouraging. #2 Toocoolforschool (8-1) didn’t show much on debut on the Keeneland dirt, but Mike Stidham is a promising 16% with horses making their first start on grass.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)

7-5-12-11

#7 McCullough (7-2) was a strong-closing second to multiple graded stakes-placed Siege of Boston last November in his most recent grass start. He’s facing a relatively easy field for this level and looks poised for a rebound off a dull effort on the Colonial dirt last out. #5 Sky’s Not Falling (8-1) made a promising move to the front last out at Gulfstream Park, but flattened out and faded to fourth in his first start off the Mike Trombetta re-claim. That was a fine prep for his return to a track on which he’s historically done well. #12 Light Mood (6-1) makes his first start since June 14, when he rallied up the inside to win a first-level allowance contest at Delaware Park. Third-place finisher Antisocial returned to win a first-level race of his own next out and was third in the Secretariat Stakes in his following race.

RACE 8: MISS PREAKNESS STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

1-3-6-7

#1 Little Miss Curlin (9-5) is 5-for-6 lifetime, with all of her victories coming by open lengths. Her only bad race came on a wet track when she raced without Lasix. She won’t have to worry about a wet surface here, but also won’t get to race on Lasix. Which factor was the true culprit for that poor performance? #3 Lights Out Leni (5-2) was an impressive gate-to-wire winner on debut at Aqueduct last out. Runner-up Directive returned to break her maiden next out by 7 3/4 lengths as the 1-5 favorite. She has lots of ability, but has yet to be tested for class. #6 Late Night Text (10-1) improved dramatically to break her maiden last out at Gulfstream with a career-best 91. As long as she doesn’t severely regress off of that race, she’s an upset threat.

RACE 9: HILLTOP STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

3-2-4-5

#3 Coach Mazzula (6-1) beat older rivals last out, taking advantage of a great trip to win going away with a career-best 84. She’s been in improving form throughout the year, has early speed, and is one of two in here who has beaten winners. The other is #2 Ultimate Love (4-5). She impressively won twice on this track last September, including a dominant win in the Selima Stakes that earned her a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She hasn’t raced since that fifth-place effort at Del Mar, and while she has a ton of talent, it’s hard to take low odds on her, considering the layoff and the presence of a horse like Coach Mazzula. #4 Siouxse (12-1) was a going-away winner in her maiden-breaking score last November at Aqueduct, and now makes her first start since then. You’ll get a much better price on a Flavien Prat-ridden, Graham Motion-trained grass horse than usual.

RACE 10: ALLAIRE DUPONT DISTAFF STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/8 MILES

6-7-2-4

#6 Queen Azteca (5-1) was a gate-to-wire winner against third-level allowance company at Keeneland last out. There’s some speed to her inside, but she’s shown she can also run well from just off the pace. #7 Waveless (6-1) has dramatically improved in each of her last few races, peaking at a 96 in a first-level allowance victory at Aqueduct last out. She doesn’t yet have the class of her biggest rivals, but the ability is there. Last year’s Black-Eyed Susan Stakes winner, #2 Margie’s Intention (1-1) has finished second or third five times since then without a victory. She’s consistently one of the fastest horses in the race, but I fear that she’ll make a big move at the top of the stretch and hang at short odds.

RACE 11: THE VERY ONE STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

8-9-5-3

#8 Sunna (6-1) is one of the most talented horses in the field. She’s a perfect 2-for-2 on the lawn, beating softer field than this by open lengths with figures in the 90s both times. If she can handle the jump from first-level allowance company, she’ll be very tough. #9 Les Reys (8-1) hasn’t gone one turn on grass in a while, but did come from off the pace to win the Ontario Fashion Stakes on the Woodbine synthetic last October. She has great late speed and presents a rare opportunity to get a price on a Miguel Clement-trained, Flavien Prat-ridden runner. #5 Saturday Flirt (6-5) didn’t show much first off a seven-month layoff in the Giant’s Causeway Stakes last out, but takes a big class drop and has shown lots of ability going one turn on grass before, including an impressive 99 last September at Kentucky Downs. However, if the morning line is any indication, you won’t get anywhere near enough value.

RACE 12: PIMLICO SPECIAL, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 3/16 MILES

2-7-1-3

After dominating allowance and starter allowance company over the past year, #2 Navajo Warrior (5-2) finally makes his stakes debut. He ran a career-best 107 at Gulfstream Park last out, defeating last year’s Preakness runner-up, Gosger, with a great stalking trip. He’s bound to get another good setup here. #7 Yo Daddy (3-1) overcame slow fractions to win the Excelsior Stakes at Aqueduct last out. He has the most early speed in this race, so despite his outside draw, he could be the one setting the hard-to-close-into pace this time.#1 Maclean’s Rook (4-1) looked like a star in the making last fall, running some huge figures in impressive victories on this track. He didn’t run as fast as usual, a 94, in victory on the Virginia Derby day undercard last out, but he’s had a bit of time off since then, and that freshening could wake him back up.

RACE 13: GEORGE E. MITCHELL BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/8 MILES

10-3-9-2

#10 My Miss Mo (7-2) led most of the way in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and ultimately ended up second to Prom Queen, who returned to finish fifth in the Kentucky Oaks. This is another case of a horse who is a dangerous front-end threat despite her outside draw. She’s fast enough that, if Tyler Gaffalione wants to, he can cross and clear to the front and leave the rest chasing. #3 Holly’s Holiday (6-1) has been a new filly in her sophomore season. After a pair of dismal efforts in her 2-year-old season, she’s 2-for-2 this year, including a perfect trip upset win in the Valley of the Vapors Stake at Oaklawn Park last out. She’ll sit off the pace on the rail and take advantage if My Miss Mo gets pressed on the lead and fades. Many of these are coming out of the April 18 Weber City Miss Stakes on this track. #9 A.P.’s Girl (5-1) ran a huge race that day, racing close to a contested pace and holding second. Only Ivy Girl, who came from dead last, beat her. A.P.’s Girl was second by a half-length after racing fifth early on; none of the first four after the first quarter-mile were close at the end, with three of them beaten by double-digit lengths.

RACE 14: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE

6-2-5-7

#6 Close the Gate (7-2) came up completely empty in the Federico Tesio Stakes last out, but ran some big races at one turn prior to that, with consistent figures in the mid-80s and 90s. He’ll add blinkers on the cutback from 1 1/8 miles, and should run an improved race as such. #2 Street Party (9-2) ran well in his last two starts after battling on the early pace, and goes first off the claim for Michael Pino, who hits at 27% with that angle. #5 No More Calls (20-1) had absolutely no shot last out with the way that race unfolded, but closed well from off of honest fractions to win at 16-1 in his prior race. If he gets any kind of pace to close into, he could pull the upset.

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