Experts’ Kentucky Derby picks
Who’ll wear the Roses?
The Biz
May 1, 2026
Kentucky Derby 2026 is upon us, and we’ve once again prevailed upon our experts to share their Derby day picks.
We’ve tasked them with picking the top three in all of Saturday’s Grade 1 races, topped of course by the $5 million Kentucky Derby. Here’s what they came up with:
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DERBY CITY DISTAFF
A short but powerpacked field is set to contest the 7-furlong Derby City Distaff. The group is headlined by last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint champ, the Maryland-bred Splendora (2-1), though near-million dollar earner Ways and Means, a five-year-old Practical Joke mare trained by Chad Brown, is the 8-5 morning line favorite.
Our pickers love Splendora, with only one trying to beat her.
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Gary Quill | Joseph Aiello | Nick Hahn | Eric Rubin | |
| 1st | 5. Splendora | 5. Splendora | 5. Splendora | 5. Splendora | 5. Splendora | 1. Usha |
| 2nd | 4. Ways and Means | 2. Haulin Ice | 6. R Disaster | 4. Ways and Means | 4. Ways and Means | 5. Splendora |
| 3rd | 2. Haulin Ice | 1. Usha | 4. Ways and Means | 1. Usha | 1. Usha | 4. Ways and Means |
AMERICAN TURF
By contrast to the Derby City Distaff, the American Turf for 3-year-olds has a bumper crop of 14 entered, including five Triple Crown nominees. The very lukewarm favorite is the Michael McCarthy-trained Stark Contrast (4-1), the runner-up in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, who most recently finished second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on the synthetic at Turfway. Also likely to take some wagering action is the 3-for-3 Remember Mamba, last out winner of the Grade 3 Transylvania, for Cherie DeVaux.
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Gary Quill | Joseph Aiello | Nick Hahn | Eric Rubin | |
| 1st | 4. Stark Contrast | 5. Blackout Time | 4. Stark Contrast | 4. Stark Contrast | 12. Remember Mamba | 2. Let’s Be Frank |
| 2nd | 12. Remember Mamba | 4. Stark Contrast | 13. Thousandsticks | 8. Greenwich Village | 10. Vasy | 12. Remember Mamba |
| 3rd | 7. Alpyland | 7. Alpyland | 7. Alpyland | 12. Remember Mamba | 4. Stark Contrast | 4. Stark Contrast |
CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES
Midlantic racing fans will probably hope for a big run from Point Dume, the onetime claimer who in his last two starts has won the General George and the Grade 2 Carter. Does he have another big one in him? At 15-1 on the morning line, it won’t be easy, but he sure is in form right now.
The morning line favorite is the 6-for-8 Knightsbridge, a winner of four straight for Bill Mott who is 9-5 on the morning line. Look for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up Imagination to take some play, as well, despite a 6-1 line, along with the lightly raced Cornucopian for Bob Baffert.
As, perhaps, befitting an ultra-competitive race, our six ‘cappers have five different horses on top.
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Gary Quill | Joseph Aiello | Nick Hahn | Eric Rubin | |
| 1st | 2. Cornucopian | 6. Knightsbridge | 4. Hall of Fame | 2. Cornucopian | 5. Disruptor | 7. Imagination |
| 2nd | 6. Knightsbridge | 7. Imagination | 9. Crazy Mason | 6. Knightsbridge | 11. Point Dume | 2. Cornucopian |
| 3rd | 7. Imagination | 2. Cornucopian | 6. Knightsbridge | 9. Crazy Mason | 6. Knightsbridge | 8. T O Elvis |
TURF CLASSIC
In the 1 1/8-mile Turf Classic, Rhetorical gets the nods as the 5-2 morning line favorite and already owns a Grade 1 win. Maryland-based trainer Graham Motion counters with a multiple Grade 1 winner of his own in Test Score (7-2), while the perpetually dangerous Chad Brown tries his luck with Grade 2 winner Asbury Park (4-1).
Our ‘cappers are a bit more in agreement in this race than they were in the Churchill Downs.
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Gary Quill | Joseph Aiello | Nick Hahn | Eric Rubin | |
| 1st | 10. Make Me King | 6. Rhetorical | 9. Test Score | 9. Test Score | 9. Test Score | 10. Make Me King |
| 2nd | 9. Test Score | 1. Corruption | 10. Make Me King | 6. Rhetorical | 4. Program Trading | 9. Test Score |
| 3rd | 8. Astronomer | 4. Program Trading | 5. Mercante | 3. Asbury Park | 1. Corruption | 1. Corruption |
KENTUCKY DERBY
And finally… the 152nd Run for the Roses. Can Renegade, the morning line favorite, become the first horse in 40 years to win from the one-hole? Can a horse based in Japan or the UAE become the first such runner to wear the Roses? These questions all to be answered here.
Our handicappers have it surrounded — with six different top selections. See the video above as a different group of handicappers discuss their Kentucky Derby picks, or click here to see horse-by-horse analysis.
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Gary Quill | Joseph Aiello | Nick Hahn | Eric Rubin | |
| 1st | 20. Fulleffort | 1. Renegade | 12. Chief Wallabee | 8. So Happy | 18. Further Ado | 10. Wonder Dean |
| 2nd | 1. Renegade | 9. The Puma | 15. Emerging Market | 1. Renegade | 6. Commandment | 1. Renegade |
| 3rd | 18. Further Ado | 14. Potente | 19. Golden Tempo | 7. Danon Bourbon | 9. The Puma | 12. Chief Wallabee |
OUR HANDICAPPERS ARE:
- Gary Quill, co-host of Better Betting podcast and former The Racing Biz Maryland handicapper
- Derby Bill Watson, legendary former Colonial Downs on-air analylyst
- Joseph Aiello handicaps Saratoga for The Racing Biz.
- Ted Black is the Charles Town correspondent for The Racing Biz.
- Nick Hahn is the host of Off to the Races Radio, powered by The Racing Biz.
- Eric Rubin, co-host of the Better Betting podcast.
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