Triple Crown: Virginia Derby picks and analysis
50 Kentucky Derby points on the line
Joseph Aiello
March 13, 2026
The final 50-point Kentucky Derby prep, the Virginia Derby, has its second running this year. Last year’s event led to a dominant performance from D. Wayne Lukas’s American Promise.
American Promise was not able to carry his form into the Derby or Preakness, however, though he kicked off the inaugural Colonial prep in fashion. This year’s group of 10 goes the same one-turn nine furlongs on the dirt.
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The top entry here breaks from the inside in Bob Baffert’s 5/2 Buetane. Starting with six Derby points after a third in the Southwest Stakes, Buetane should once again be forwardly placed against a field that lacks early speed. He should have control with a sharp break and an aggressive ride from Flavien Prat who looks to take advantage of an unproven field. Still, even as the classiest of the bunch, Buetane has yet to win at the stakes level and has distance questions as he stretches out here.
Tom Drury’s unbeaten Lockstocknpharoah (5/1) went gate-to-wire last time out in an allowance at Turfway. But he controlled modest fractions and likely won’t get that same trip in this contest, which is also his first on dirt.
Three enter from the Sam F. Davis Stakes, which looks much better on paper after runner-up The Puma’s maiden-breaking Tampa Derby win last weekend. Todd Pletcher’s Epic Desire (15/1), Brad Cox’s Confessional (4/1), and D. Whitworth Beckham’s Ocelli (15/1) all disappointed stepping up in class, but hope to improve in their second stakes test.
Confessional may have the pedigree edge over the other two, but hasn’t shown improvement to be considered a top contender. Ocelli has yet to win in four tries, but has the right running style to close at this distance even if he remains a cut below.
Epic Desire similarly needs more tries at this level, and despite finishing ahead of his counterparts in Tampa, still ended a distant fifth by nine lengths and would need a pace collapse to have his best chance.
THE PICKS
1. #1 Buetane (5-2) – Likely gets class relief against these after tough outings behind the likes of Ted Noffey, So Happy.
2. #7 Incredibolt (10-1) – Couldn’t have run worse in the Holy Bull, but nothing wrong with earlier outings, including the field’s lone graded score in the Street Sense. Return to form puts him right there.
3. #5 High Camp (9-2) – Distance the question for this Instagrand colt; talent is there.
4. #6 Lockstocknpharoah (5-1) – Undefeated in two races, tries dirt for the first time.
Leading the group with 11 Derby points is Todd Pletcher’s other starter, Grittiness (12/1). Following a fifth in the Remsen and runner-up in the Withers, this Aqueduct shipper has shown steady improvement in five tries even if his top efforts are below the best. In his Withers, he finished eleven lengths behind the winner and clearly would need a step forward to factor in here. As another who will be off the pace, this colt by Curlin may not have the right running style here as late finishers appear to be at a tactical disadvantage in this field.
Perhaps the colt with the most upside of the others is Incredibolt (10/1) from the Riley Mott barn. After nabbing 10 Derby points by winning the Street Sense at Churchill in October, Incredibolt retreated in the Holy Bull to finish dead last by twenty-five lengths. Clearly not his best that day, a return to form would easily make him a top choice coming from mid pack.
“We’re going to try to redeem ourselves on Saturday,” Mott said in a release. “We’ll sure need to after that race at Gulfstream. I think it was mostly just a matter of him disliking the track surface. Whether that had to do with it being deeper on the inside, I’m not sure, but he certainly didn’t get a hold of it at any point.”
His second try as a three-year-old will determine if his Holy Bull was simply a bad adjustment to the Gulfstream track or a downturn in performance.
Of the runners from maiden company, William Walden’s High Camp begins with the highest expectations at 9/2. Keeping John Velazquez in the irons, this colt broke his maiden second time out at Gulfstream last month as the favorite. That race was at seven furlongs, and he joins a group that stretches out in distance and will likely come from mid-pack. With others who have shown more, High Camp needs to step forward to win.
In what could be a modest pace, Buetane appears to have a slight leg up on this inconsistent group who look to punch their ticket to the Derby. With some surprising results on the Derby trail thus far, anything can happen with these three-year-olds who have yet to show their full potential as they mature and gain racing experience.
The Virginia Derby starts at 5:10 PM EST as the ninth race on Colonial Downs’s Saturday card.
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