PIMLICO PICKS AND PONDERINGS: may 17, 2025

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

First post time: 10:30 a.m.

Carryovers (mandatory payouts in all wagers): 
Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 (races 8-13)—$88,459
Jackpot Super High 5 (race 13) — $19,296
Late Pick 5 (races 9-13)— $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

3-1-5-8

#3 Sheriff Ronnie (8-1) was second to future stakes winner Worcester three starts back, then won against a softer second-level bunch last out with an impressive brisnef figure of 95. He takes a class dip after a flat try against third-level foes last out, and has worked very well since then for Tim Kreiser. #1 Band Camp (3-1) ended his 2024 season on an absolute heater, running at least a 96 in his last five starts on a big track. He hasn’t raced since the Maryland Million Sprint, so while the ability’s there, he might need a race. #5 Augusta Melody (9-5), one of two in here for Brittany Russell, was an impressive winner at Keeneland last out second off a 10-month break. However, if his morning line is any indication, he’s bound to be severely overbet.

RACE 2: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

9-1-11-6 (DIRT: 5-6-1-4)

#9 Drop the Hammer (2-1) broke her maiden on grass two starts back at Gulfstream Park, and gets class relief after holding her won against better first-level rivals last out at Keeneland. #1 Be Inspired (12-1) didn’t do much in her lone try on this surface last year, but she’s had some time off since a series of unimpressive efforts, and her breeding suggests she’ll like this surface better. #11 Betula (9-2) tries winners for the first time after a gate-to-wire win last out at Tampa Bay Downs, and is sure to be sent for speed by John Velazquez.

RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-6-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES

5-1-3-4

I’ll take a swing with a local against two powerhouse barns. #5 Task Force (12-1) ran huge at second asking at Keeneland last out, coming from well off the pace to just miss with a much-improved 80. He was takenout of that eace by Anthony Farrior, who puts Arnaldo Bocachica aboard. That pair’s success in Maryland is well-documented on these pages, but many Preakness day players don’t know that, and that may drive up his odds. #1 Last Man Standing (3-2) hasn’t been a serious threat in his two starts, but he was pace-compromised in both of those efforts, and this Todd Pletcher trainee is bound to improve with a more honest tempo. #3 Varney (6-5) ran in the mid-80s twice over the winter and spring at Santa Anita Park, and ships here for the Bob Baffert contingent. He has ability at one turn, but is unproven going longer; he was pulled up in his only start around two turns.

RACE 4: MARYLAND SPRINT STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

6-2-3-5

Two years ago, Straight No Chaser won this race impressively and captured the Breeders’ Cup Sprint 18 months later. #6 Booth (7-5) has similar vibes. He looked like a superstar at Oaklawn Park over the winter, capturing three stakes races with triple-digit figures every time. He should set the pace, kick away on the turn, and win as much the best. #2 Prince of Jericho (6-1) ran an eyeballs-out race to capture the Fire Plug Stakes two starts back, and makes his first start since a third-place performance in the General George Stakes to Quint’s Brew. He was entered and scratched in the King Leatherbury Stakes a few weeks back, but has worked since, and comes in here with tactical speed and loads of class. #3 Celtic Contender (8-1) was second in the General George, and has been in slowly improving form over the past year while capturing a pair of stakes races. He’s been working well for Hammy Smith and should be ready to fire a big one.

RACE 5: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

5-3-4-11 (DIRT: 3-9-10-12)

Many of these come out of the same race at this condition on April 18. #5 Parola Sicura (7-2) made her first start off an eight-month layoff in that race, and lost by only 2 1/2 lengths as the favorite despite grtting into a world of trouble. She’ll run an improved race with clearer sailing. #3 Glean (3-1) ran in the 80s twice as a 2-year-old last year, and adds Lasix for her 3-year-old debut. Wesley Ward tends to do well with his runners first off a layoff, so I’m not too concerned about the 5 1/2-month break. #4 Lilly Simone (10-1) had a terrible break in that April 18 race, but crossed the wire third with a solid late rally. She ran in the 80s consistently last year, and is bound to improve second off the bench. Getting better than the 12-1 she was last out would be a very square deal

RACE 6: SKIPAT STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

5-7-4-3

This race is named for the great Connecticut-bred mare of the mid-1970s. #5 Zeitlos (2-1) looks like another promising sprinter for the Asmussen barn. She ran some big races last year, capturing the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes among her trio of triumphs. She hasn’t raced this year, but Asmussen generally has them ready for this weekend. #7 Striker Has Dial (5-2) won back-to-back starts at Aqueduct with figures of 103 and 99. She’s in very sharp form, has early speed, and has raced this year. This will be her class test. #4 Disco Ebo (8-1) prevailed in the Priomentta Stakes last out despite acting up in the gate. She’s run well this year and had tactical speed, but Mychel Sanchez must time his move just right; this mare doesn’t have great late pace figures.

RACE 7: GALLORETTE STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

9-3-2-6

The great Maryland-bred mare is honored with this Preakness day staple. #9 Way to Be Marie (3-1) has run improving figures in her last three grass tries, including a stalk-and-pounce win in the Tom Benson Memorial Stakes at Fair Grounds last out. She should work out a trip in the clear on the outside. #3 Ocean Club (15-1) couldn’t make the front after blisteringly fast fractions in the Sand Springs Stakes last out, but showed dangerous early speed last year and could wire this field at a price. #2 Queen of the Mud (4-1) shipped to Santa Anita Park first off a six-month layoff last out, and chased the pace tongrab second in the Monrovia Stakes. She won her two-turn debut last year, and Flavien Prat, who has ridden her to victory twice, gets back in the saddle.

RACE 8: CHICK LANG STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

6-7-8-1

This race honors the longtime general manager of Pimlico. The form of #6 Keep It Easy (4-1) is obscured by two disastrous races, albeit ones with excuses. He stumbled badly at the start of the Saratoga Special Stakes last August, and didn’t care for the two turns of the Fountain of Youth Stakes. However, he’s been tremendous in his other starts, including a dominant win in the 6 1/2-furlong Ed Brown Stakes last November. He should sit a great trip off of what should be a fast early tempo. #7 Faster Gator (6-1) has improved by leaps and bounds with each start, and was most recently a gutsy second in the Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct. This could be the time to shine for Farrior and Bocachica. #8 One Nine Hundred (7-2) ran back-to-back 98s at Aqueduct over the winter. He’s never faced winners before, but did lose to Coliquial two starts back, who returned to win impressively next out and looks like a future star. Nonetheless, this is a class test.

RACE 9: JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

2-9-6-4

The legendary sportscaster is the namesake of this contest. There’s a lot of speed in here, which plays into the hands of #2 No Nay Hudson (5-2). He sat a stalk-and-pounce trip to win at Keeneland last out, running in the 90s for the third time in his last five starts. He’d take full advantage of the right setup. If anyone is going to wire them, it may be #9 Fore Harp (5-1). He wired the field in his season debut, the King Leatherbury Stakes, last out, and has the best early pace figures in the field. If anyone can sneak away to a loose lead, it might be him. #6 Coppola (2-1) is also an early speed threat, and gets a bit of class relief after facing better in his last two tries.

RACE 10: SIR BARTON STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES

9-6-1-7

This race is named for the first Triple Crown winner. #9 Just a Fair Shake (6-1) ran a huge race second off a six-month layoff in the Federico Tesio Stakes last out. He raced wide the wjole way, but still made a big move towards the lead and drew alongside Pay Billy entering the stretch. While Pay Billy kicked away, this one held second with a career-best 93. Kentucky Outlaw, who was fifth in the Tesio, returned to win the Long Branch Stakes last Saturday. #6 Invictus (9-5) broke his maiden going seven furlongs at Keeneland first off an 8 1/2-month layoff last out with a very impressive 96. This Brad Cox trainee looks like has a very high ceiling, but he’s never faced winners or gone around two turns. #1 Crudo (5-2) also dominated a maiden field at Keeneland last out, and only got stronger as the race got longer. He also has lots ofupside, and looks well-bred for two turns.

RACE 11: JAMES W. MURPHY STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE (GRASS)

7-5-6-3

We’re back to the grass to honor the longtime Maryland trainer. #7 Reagan’s Wit (5-2) has run big figures in each of his three starts this year, including a 99 in a neck defeat to Zulu Kingsom last out, and races for a Cherie DeVaux barn which has enjoyed success on past Preakness days. #5 End of Romance (9-2) closed well despite being fanned wide in his stateside grass debut last out, and has room to keep improving. #6 Soleil Volant (7-2) was third against his elders last out at Laurel, and gets Flavien Prat aboard second off an eight-week break.

RACE 12: DINNER PARTY STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

9-10-11-8

The usual last race before the Preakness is named for the first race ever held at Pimlico in 1870. #9 Irish Aces (10-1) has run in the 90s three times in his last gour starts, and the only time he didn’t was when he had a traffic-filled trip two starts ago. He’ll be very tough with a clean trip. #10 Fort Washington (5-1) rallied to win the Canadian Turf Stakes last out, and has displayed a great closing kick against these types. #11 Fulmineo (12-1) won two stakes races on soft grass last year, so he should benefit from yesterday’s thunderstorm. He rallied well first off a seven-month layoff in the Henry Clark Stakes despite traffic trouble.

RACE 13: PREAKNESS STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 3/16 MILES

2-6-9-1

I was on the team of #2 Journalism (8-5) going into the Kentucky Derby. He looked much the best on paper going into that race, and he made what looked lime a winning move, only to get outkicked by Sovereignty. He still ran a 102 that day, making him the only one in the race to a run triple-digit figure in each of his last three starts. A faster track and a lively pace will play right into his hands. On one hand, #6 River Thames (9-2) has the profile of many recent Preakness winners: a horse who had enough Derby qualifying points, but bypassed that race for the Preakness. He impressively won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park, then lost to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. On the other hand, he sat a great trip in the Blue Grass Stakes and loomed ready to blow by the leaders, but had no late punch and hung in the lane. He’s been working well since then, however, and has the ability to bounce back. #9 Gosger (20-1) also has good tactical speed and is in improving form. He might be hitting his best stride at the right time, and might slide through the cracks in the betting.

RACE 14: UAE PRESIDENT CUP, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, ARABIANS, 1 1/16 MILES

6-9-2-7

Many of these come out of Texas Six Shooter Stakes at Sam Houston on May 8. #6 Rb Grand Slam (3-1) came from off the pace to win that race by a neck, and won easily on dirt in his prior start despite some traffic trouble. #9 Diamond Gem Aa (7-5) is the two-time defending champion of this race, but got caught on the lead in the Texas Six Shooter, and is bound to be a very low price. #2 Rb Motherload (7-2) has great late speed, and should get up for at least a share at an overlaid price.

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