PIMLICO PICKS AND PONDERINGS: may 16, 2025

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 11:30 a.m.

Carryovers: 
Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 (races 8-13) —$5,679
Jackpot Super High 5 (race 13) — $6,977
Late Pick 5 (races 9-13) — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

4-6-7-5

All eyes will be on #6 Verifire (2-5) in the opener, and not without reason. He smoked the field on debut on the Virginia Derby day undercard, running an impressive brisnet figure of 93. Brad Cox returns this $1,000,000 purchase to the Mid-Atlantic for his first try against winners. While he certainly merits respect, #4 Saxton (4-1) isn’t too far behind him on the brisnet scale. That one ran a 91 and a 92 in his first two starts of the season, and has worked well here at Pimlico since a flat effort in a stakes-quality field last out. While Verifire is probably the most likely winner, he’s not that much better that he should be a much higher price. #7 Blo By’em (10-1) finally broke through at seventh asking last out, rallying from well off the pace to win at 19-1. He has a great closing kick, but he has a problem changing leads. Even so, he should be able to rally for a share at a good number.

RACE 2: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-6-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

1-12-10-3 (DIRT: 10-12-4-1)

#1 Protective Custody (15-1) came up completely empty in two dirt starts to start her career, but should run much better on grass. She’s a half-sister to Limited Liability, who won the Nashville Gold Cup at Kentucky Downs last year and has hit the board in numerous graded stakes. John Velazquez gets the call for the first time on this Shug McGaughey trainee, who is 19% in recent times going dirt to grass. #12 Software (7-2) showed some good late kick first off a 10-month layoff at Keeneland last out. She’s loaded with grass pedigree, as four of her siblings have won stakes on grass (including Dataman, who won at Laurel Park on May 3). She also gets Flavien Prat in the saddle. #10 My Brazilian Girl (5-2) has already taken some big swings in her career; she’s been in stakes company three times, and more than held her own when fourth at 44-1 in the Orchid Stakes last out. She gets a new trainer and rider in Keri Brion and Irad Ortiz, respectively, and has by far the best route figures of anyone in the race, having run at least a 79 in each of her last four races.

RACE 3: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

9-2-6-10

#9 Point Dume (7-2) led all the way in his last two dirt starts, and almost wired the field on the lawn last out. He has lots of speed in a race where many of them like to come from way out of it, and he could end up very lonely on the front end. #2 Cadet Corps (4-1) won his last two dirt route starts going away with stalk-and-pounce trips. He has great tactical speed, a key attribute for a race like this. Paco Lopez should be able to work out a great trip with him. #6 Stronsino (5-2) has a big figure edge on these, having run at least a 94 in each of his last three starts. However, he’s looked dominant on paper in his last four races, going off at even-money or less every time, and he’s only won once. He merits respect in here, but don’t take too short a price.

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

1-10-8-2 (DIRT: 7-9-3-1)

#1 Island d’Lite (5-1) lacked running room for most of the stretch run last out, and by the time he got clear, it was too late. He finished second to Cactus, who returned to win a starter optional claiming race here last Saturday as the favorite. Horses exiting Island d’Lite’s race finished second, third, and fifth behind Cactus last Saturday. This one should improve second off a six-month break. #10 Zip Line to Heaven (7-2) found his best self towards the end of last year, with back-to-back figures in the 80s. This one hasn’t raced since December, but he won his first start off of similar layoffs in 2023 and 2024, so we know the time off won’t be a problem. #8 Bourbon Boss (3-1) cruised on the lead last out against non-winners of two claimers, and has an excellent chance to wire this field on a track where speed’s been holding in grass sprints.

RACE 5: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

7-4-2-5

#7 Privman (6-5) went off as the even-money favorite on debut last June at Los Alamitos, finished second with an 83 to a horse who was second in the Best Pal Stakes next out, but hasn’t won since. This one got back on the worktab in late March, and now returns here for Bob Baffert. Baffert tried a similar maneuver last year on Preakness weekend with Mirahmadi, and it didn’t work. Luckily for him, this one is facing a much easier bunch. His biggest competition, #4 Ennis Town (8-5), is also making his 3-year-old debut. He was second at Aqueduct and Keeneland last year, with big figures both times, and now adds blinkers first off the bench for Mike Trombetta. Watch the board with both of these. Among horses who have raced this year, #2 Firmantown (6-1) looks the best. He wired a $25,000 field last out, but was disqualified for gate interference. He has blazing early speed, and if either of the top two are rusty, he could easily wire these.

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

3-2-10-5 (DIRT: 5-12-13-1)

#3 Tidewater (7-2), whose full brother, Beltane, is also in this race, had a fantastic year last year, including a strong second-place effort at this level to cap the campaign. He was flat first off an 8 1/2-month layoff last out, but switches back to grass and drops in class. He showed improvement second off the layoff last year, so you can expect similar in this spot. #2 Tall Order (6-1) got up to beat first-level foes last out, oncluding Benny Havens, who won here last weekend. He has great late speed and will be tough if he works out a trip. #10 Had to Have Him (10-1) hasn’t raced this year, but won on the Black-Eyed Susan day undercard last year over Tidewater and consistently ran in the upper-80s towards the end of last season.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)

7-2-10-5 (DIRT: 8-9-11-6)

#7 Army Officer (2-1) ran an 88 and a 92 on grass at this time last year, and went off favored in the Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga, suggesting a promising future. However, he went sour towards the end of fhe season; and made a promising movs and faded in his 2025 debut at Turfway Park last out. The ability’s there somewhere; if he channels it here, he’s tough to beat. #2 Blame the Tux (6-1) chased a gate-to-wire in his season debut last out, but has run better on or near the pace and will be tough if he trips out. #10 St. John’s (9-2) was second to future stakes winner Desvio on Preakness day last year, and just missed going 2 1/8 miles at Middleburg last out. He’s run well at this level before, and should also get a nice trip.

RACE 8: ALLAIRE DUPONT DISTAFF STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES

1-3-6-7

The first stakes race of the weekend is named for the legendary mid-Atlantic owner and breeder, best-known for campaigning the great Kelso. #1 Dazzling Move (4-1) won a two-turn stakes race earlier this year, capturing the Royal Delta Stakes at Gulfstream Park at 1 1/16 miles. She was flat in the Madison Stakes last time out, which was her first start outside of Florida since Saffie Joseph took over training duties. Joseph has a bit of a reputation for not being able to win outside of Florida (except for rare talents), so i’m a tad wary. Still, this one’s recently proven around two turns, and has great early pace figures. If Jose Ortiz is aggressive, she could go all the way. #3 Candied (8-5) faced better competition throughout last year, finishing grade 1-placed four times, including in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff to Thorpedo Anna and Raging Sea. She showed nothing first off the layoff in the Doubledogdare Stakes at Keeneland last out, but might have needed the race and has worked well since. She’s the one to beat, but she won’t provide any value. #6 Peignoir (8-1) went gate-to-wire in an off-the-grass event at Keeneland last out with first-time blinkers. She’s gone 2-for-4 on off tracks, in case there’s moisture today, and also has lots of early speed. If Dazzling Move isn’t aggressive early, this one will be delighted.

RACE 9: HILLTOP STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

8-3-1-6 (DIRT: 5-2-4-3)

We’re going back to the lawn for a race named in tribute to Pimlico’s nickname, “Old Hilltop.” #8 Obeissante (5-2) came from off the pace to break her maiden going gwo turns going away at Gulfstream Park last out, and this Todd Pletcher trainee may have only scratched the surface of her potential. #3 Me Governor (7-2) has already run in the 90s three times, which would blow away this field. However, she’s never run beyond six furlongs, and there’s not a ton in her breeding to suggest she’ll like the distance. Still, if she does, watch out. #1 Princess Altitude (15-1) won going two turns at Keeneland last out from just off a slow pace, and may represent a rare chance to get value on a Luis Saez-ridden runner.

RACE 10: MISS PREAKNESS STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

10-7-6-5

This race has a ton of early speed. If everyone goes, it would set up nicely for #10 Mila Rose (10-1). She’s 2-for-2 lifetime after starting her career with stalk-and-pounce wins at Turfway Park and Keeneland. She’s in improving form and has sjown a great late kick. #7 Delray (15-1) wore down the leaders to win from just off the pace at Aqueduct last out, and has a similar running style as Mila Rose. Her only subpar effort as of late came three starts back when she tried to go to the lead and got caught late, but you figure that Frankie Pennington, who has ridden her to victory twice, will know better. Sometimes, when there’s a lot of early speed on paper, the jockeys panic, aren’t that aggressive, and someone ends up stealing it on the lead. If that happens here, #6 Stunner (4-1), who wired the Tempted Stakes at Aqueduct last November and has finished second in stakes races three times since then, is the most likely one to do it. She has great middle speed as well, so if she’s allowed to set relatively mild fractions, she’s gone.

RACE 11: THE VERY ONE STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

9-12-2-14 (DIRT: 3-7-5-8)

This race is named for the top mare of the 1970s. She started her career in Maryland, won three stakes races here, and was second in the 1980 Washington D.C. International. There’s two races named for her (the other at Gulfstream), which means we get to have two Twitter debates per year about if it’s supposed be called “The The Very One” or just “The Very One.” #9 Loon Cry (9-5) won two stakes races ladt year snd ran in the 90s three times in her last four starts of the season. She didn’t run her peak race first off the bench last year, so she might need this race, her 2025 debut. Still, her ceiling is undeniable. #12 Simply Stated (10-1) came from off the pace to get third at big odds last out at Keeneland, with a surface-best 90. She hasn’t yet won on grass, but hasn’t run badly over it, either, and could pop at a price. #2 Bosserati (9-2) wired them in the Maryland Million Turf Sprint last year, and could easily do the same thing in this spot.

RACE 12: PIMLICO SPECIAL, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 3/16 MILES

8-1-4-3

This race was turned upside down on Wednesday when it was announced that Pyrenees, last year’s winner and the morning line favorite this year, was scratched. I was ready to take a swing against him, but his defection changes the expected betting board quite a bit. I’m still hoping to get decent value on #8 Star of Wonder (7-2), who has a similar profile this year as Pyrenees did last year. He won his 4-year-old debut at Aqueduct last out from just off the pace, running on well when clear and getting up. He’ll get another nice setup here and may improve even further second off the bench for Brad Cox. Any of my second through fourth picks could wire the field. #1 Phileas Fogg (5-1) is a nose away from being 5-for-5 since getting claimed by Gustavo Rodriguez last July at Saratoga. He sat offna runaway early lead and won the Exclesior Stakes at Aqueduct going away last out. He set the early pace in his prior four tries, and Kenridck Carmouche, who rode him to victory last time, has come down for the ride. #4 Awesome Aaron (12-1) has run career-best races in his last two starts, including a 100 in a press-the-pace victory at Oaklawn Park last out. You might not get his morning line anymore, but he should still provide great value.

RACE 13: GEORGE E. MITCHELL BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/8 MILES

7-5-9-3

Today’s featured event is named for the official state flower of Maryland and a longtime community leader in Baltimore. Not long after they crossed the wire in the Weber City Miss Stakes, i proclaimed that #7 Reply (8-1) would win the Black-Eyed Susan, and I’m sticking with that prediction. She ran a huge race from off a slow tempo, closing well up the rail to miss by less than a length with a much-improved 87. It was a freaf effort for just her second start, and her first in stakes company, and she should only get better in this spot. #5 Kinzie Queen (10-1) rebounded after a flat Fantasy Stakes to beat first-level rivals going away at Oaklawn Park last out, coming from off the pace to run an 87 of her own. She should also make a serious late impact, though we might have already seen her ceiling, considering she’s already raced 11 times. Reply is more of a blank slate. #9 Moon Cache (20-1) ran well despite some late trouble in the Weber City Miss, and crossed the wire first in the Beyond the Wire Stakes two starts ago before being disqualified. She should get a nice trip just off the pace on the outside.

RACE 14: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-6-YEAR-OLDS, FILLEIS AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

6-7-8-1 (DIRT: 2-4-9-5)

#6 Town Light (15-1) has grass breeding for days. Her second dam, Cozzy Corner, was a graded stakes winner in grass. Five of her siblings, including multiple stakes winner Safeen, have won in this surface. Trainer Phil Schoenthal hits at 27% with his horses going first time on the lawn. #7 Somnium (8-1) was entered and scratched on April 25, has worked twice since, and now returns here. She has tons of grass pedigree. She’s a half-sister to grass stars Caravel and Witty. Another brother, Mission Man, is a six-figure earner on grass, and year-older half-brother Enzo finished second in a similar spot on April 19 behind James Murphy Stakes entrant Twain. This one has run well both on the pace and off of it in her two-race career, coming from way out of it to just miss in her lone grass start last October. She looks like she’ll get better with experience , and should be able to master these. #8 Beyond Question (6-1) has two siblings who won stakes races on grass, and showed speed on this surface last year before going to the sidelines. She’s been working well for Mike Trombetta and gets Lasix for the first time.

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