Kentucky Derby 2025: Horse by horse analysis
Kentucky Derby 2025 is set for May 3 at Churchill Downs, and it’s carded as the 12th on a 14-race program. The race has drawn a field of 20, plus one also-eligible — Baeza — hoping for a scratch to draw in.
Baeza is sure to draw some wagering attention if he makes the starting gate, but the morning line — and likely post-time — favorite will be the horse who bested him in the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism.
The video past performances below include each race in which the horse earned Kentucky Derby points; to access the video, just click on the race line. Here are the details on all the horses:
1. Citizen Bull (20-1)
Color/Sex: Bay Colt
Bred/By: Kentucky – Robert Low & Lawana Low
Sire/Dam (Damsire): Into Mischief – No Joke (Distorted Humor)
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows/Earnings: 6–4–0–1 / $1,451,000
Jockey/Trainer: Martin Garcia / Bob Baffert
Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket
Age: 3
Citizen Bull was last year’s champion two-year-old following wins in a pair of Grade 1s, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but hasn’t quite recaptured that brilliance this spring. In the Santa Anita Derby, he dueled early but faded to fourth in the lane, raising questions about his current form. Still, his natural speed makes him a likely pace factor, and he’s in the hands of Derby veteran Bob Baffert, seeking a record-tying seventh win, and jockey Martin Garcia, who is looking for his first.
Video Past Performances
5-Apr-2025 | SA | Santa Anita Derby | 4th |
1-Feb-2025 | SA | Robert B. Lewis S. | 1st |
1-Nov-2024 | SA | Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | 1st |
5-Oct-2024 | SA | American Pharoah | 1st |
2. Neoequos (30-1)
Color/Sex: Bay Colt
Bred/By: Florida – Helen Barbazon, Joseph Barbazon & Matalona Thoroughbreds, LLC
Sire/Dam (Damsire): Neolithic – Bold Birdie (Birdstone)
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows/Earnings: 7–2–2–2 / $291,050
Jockey/Trainer: Flavien Prat / Saffie Joseph Jr.
Owner: C2 Racing Stable, LLC
Age: 3
Neoequos enters the Kentucky Derby an unproven contender at the classic distance. He ran third in the Florida Derby, making the lead briefly before tiring late. Though he has been consistently in the mix in his two-turn tries, he has yet to win beyond six furlongs — a concern when stretching out to a mile and a quarter. Jockey Flavien Prat won the Derby via disqualification aboard Country House in 2019. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is seeking his first victory in a Triple Crown race but needs this colt to take a big step forward.
Video Past Performances
29-Mar-2025 | GP | Florida Derby | 3rd |
1-Mar-2025 | GP | Fountain of Youth S. | 3rd |
3. Final Gambit (30-1)
Color/Sex: Gr/ro. c
Bred: Ky by Juddmonte
Sire: Not This Time – Pachinko (Tapit)
Jockey: L. Machado • Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 4-2-1-1 • Earnings: $520,639
Owner: Juddmonte • Age: 3
Final Gambit is a late-running colt that has impressed with back-to-back victories, including a worst-to-first win in Turfway’s Jeff Ruby Steaks. Though he has never raced on dirt, his pedigree, featuring the versatile Not This Time as his sire, suggests he should handle the surface well. Trainer Brad Cox, who won the Derby (by much later DQ) in 2021 with Mandaloun, will be aiming to add another Kentucky Derby victory to his resume. Jockey Luan Machado has his first Derby mount, and the colt’s late kick could make him a strong competitor in the stretch.
Video Past Performances
22-Mar-2025 | TP | Jeff Ruby Steaks | 1st |
4. Rodriguez (12-1)
Color/Sex: Dk. b or br. c
Bred: Ky by Kingswood Farm & David Egan
Sire: Authentic – Cayala (Cherokee Run)
Jockey: M. E. Smith • Trainer: Bob Baffert
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 5-2-2-1 • Earnings: $522,800
Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket • Age: 3
Rodriguez, a son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, demonstrated his talent with a front-running score in the Wood Memorial after previously struggling in West Coast preps. His victory in the Grade 2 event earned him the needed Derby points. With the experienced Mike Smith, who has two Derby wins, Rodriguez has the speed to be among the vanguard in what is expected to be a fast-paced race. Trainer Bob Baffert, with a strong Derby record, will look to add another win to his list with this talented colt.
Video Past Performances
5-Apr-2025 | AQU | Wood Memorial | 1st |
1-Mar-2025 | SA | San Felipe S. | 3rd |
1-Feb-2025 | SA | Robert B. Lewis S. | 2nd |
5. American Promise (30-1)
Color/Sex: Ch. c
Bred: Ky by Candy Meadows LLC
Sire: Justify – Tapella (Tapit)
Jockey: N. Juarez • Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 9-2-1-1 • Earnings: $444,874
Owner: BC Stables, LLC • Age: 3
American Promise, a son of Triple Crown winner Justify, looks to continue his rise after a strong victory in the Virginia Derby. His pedigree suggests that he will thrive at longer distances, and his impressive performance when pushed early shows his tenacity. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, with four Derby wins under his belt, will seek to add another triumph to his storied career, while jockey Nik Juarez takes on his first Derby mount. Lukas has been high on this good-looking colt all along, and that was a big step forward last out; another one is needed here.
Video Past Performances
15-Mar-2025 | CNL | Virginia Derby | 1st |
15-Feb-2025 | FG | Risen Star | 5th |
6. Admire Daytona (30-1)
Color/Sex: B. c
Bred: Jpn by Northern Racing
Sire: Drefong – Ice Pastel (Shackleford)
Jockey: C. Lemaire • Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 6-2-2-0 • Earnings: $672,047
Owner: Junko Kondo • Age: 3
Admire Daytona has made a name for himself on the international scene with a memorable victory in the UAE Derby, where he fought off challengers to secure a win. However, his pedigree leans more toward sprint and middle distances, and with the presence of other speed horses, the Kentucky Derby’s classic distance may present a challenge. Trainer Yukihiro Kato, with his experience in Japanese racing, will look to navigate these obstacles, and jockey Christophe Lemaire will bring his skill and experience to the race. He did lose twice to the other Japanese entrant, Luxor Cafe.
Video Past Performances
5-Apr-2025 | Meydan | UAE Derby | 1st |
7. Luxor Cafe (15-1)
Color/Sex: B. c
Bred: Ky by Orpendale/Chelston/Wynatt & Westerberg Ireland ULC
Sire: American Pharoah – Mary’s Follies (More Than Ready)
Jockey: J. Moreira • Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 6-4-1-0 • Earnings: $379,057
Owner: Koichi Nishikawa • Age: 3
Luxor Cafe comes into the Derby with a strong background in Japanese racing, where he dominated his competition on the road to the Triple Crown and arrives on a four-race win streak. A full brother to Café Pharoah, who earned nearly $5.5 million in Japan, Luxor Cafe has shown talent that could translate well to the American racing scene. Trainer Noriyuki Hori will be hoping for a smooth transition to the dirt at Churchill Downs, while jockey Joao Moreira looks to capitalize on this colt’s ability to overpower rivals in a fast-paced race.
Video Past Performances
29-Mar-2025 | Jpn | Fukuryu S. | 1st |
8. Journalism (3-1)
Color/Sex: B. c
Bred: Ky by Don Alberto Corporation
Sire: Curlin – Mopotism (Uncle Mo)
Jockey: U. Rispoli • Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 5-4-0-1 • Earnings: $638,880
Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners • Age: 3
Journalism enters the Kentucky Derby on a four-race win streak, with impressive victories in graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. This colt has displayed versatility and tactical ability, allowing him to excel in different race scenarios. With a strong finishing kick and the ability to adapt, Journalism will be a serious contender. Trainer Michael McCarthy, who won the Preakness in 2021 with Rombauer, will be hoping to land his first Derby victory with this colt, while jockey Umberto Rispoli brings his expertise to the mount. The only concern: in his three stakes wins, he’s faced a total of 12 rivals. He’ll see a lot more today.
Video Past Performances
5-Apr-2025 | SA | Santa Anita Derby | 1st |
1-Mar-2025 | SA | San Felipe S. | 1st |
14-Dec-2024 | LA | Los Alamitos Futurity | 1st |
9. Burnham Square (12-1)
Color/Sex: B. g
Bred: Ky by Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC
Sire: Liam’s Map – Linda (Scat Daddy)
Jockey: B. J. Hernandez Jr. • Trainer: Ian R. Wilkes
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 6-3-1-1 • Earnings: $977,755
Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC • Age: 3
Burnham Square earned his place in the Kentucky Derby with a late-rallying victory in the Blue Grass Stakes, coming from far back to catch a hot pace. Distance shouldn’t be an issue, and his running style should be flattered by the expected pace scenario. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who won the Derby last year aboard Mystik Dan, will aim for another strong performance. Trainer Ian Wilkes, seeking his first Derby win, will hope to guide Burnham Square to an upset victory. Among his beaten rivals have been next-out Florida Derby winner Tappan Street. One question: what do you make of that bland outing in the Fountain of Youth?
Video Past Performances
5-Apr-2025 | KEE | Blue Grass Stakes | 1st |
1-Mar-2025 | GP | Fountain of Youth S. | 4th |
1-Feb-2025 | GP | Holy Bull S. | 1st |
10. Grande (20-1)
Color/Sex: Dk. b or br. c
Bred: Ky by KatieRich Farms
Sire: Curlin – Journey Home (War Front)
Jockey: J. R. Velazquez • Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 3-2-1-0 • Earnings: $228,200
Owner: Repole Stable • Age: 3
Grande’s impressive second-place finish in the Wood Memorial was his first try in stakes company, proving his potential for the Derby. With a strong pedigree, including the proven racing lines of Curlin, he has the pedigree to go the distance in the Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won the Kentucky Derby twice, will rely on this colt’s speed and stamina to be a factor. Jockey John Velazquez, with four Derby victories to his name, will look to secure a fifth win with Grande. He was a bit late to reach the races, not debuting until January, and this may be a heavy lift, given his lack of experience, but this colt has plenty of upside.
Video Past Performances
5-Apr-2025 | AQU | Wood Memorial | 2nd |
11. Flying Mohawk (30-1)
Color/Sex: Dk. b or br. c
Bred: Ky by John O’Meara
Sire: Karakontie (Jpn) – Bonbons Fleur (Twirling Candy)
Jockey: J. D. Ramos • Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 6-2-2-0 • Earnings: $295,800
Owner: Two Eight Racing • Age: 3
Flying Mohawk is a turf-based late closer whose recent effort in the Jeff Ruby Steaks showed he can benefit from a collapsing pace, rallying to complete the exacta behind Final Gambit. He’s never raced on dirt, which makes this Derby try an experiment at the highest level. This marks trainer Whit Beckman’s second Derby attempt and the first for jockey Joseph Ramos, who has shown he can get a closing kick from this colt when things fall into place. Would need to take a major step forward — and get everything to go right — to be a factor.
Video Past Performances
22-Mar-2025 | TP | Jeff Ruby Steaks | 2nd |
12. East Avenue (12-1)
Color/Sex: B. c
Bred: Ky by Godolphin
Sire: Medaglia d’Oro – Dance Music (Ghostzapper)
Jockey: M. Franco • Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 5-2-1-0 • Earnings: $654,395
Owner: Godolphin, LLC • Age: 3
East Avenue may have turned a corner with the addition of blinkers, setting sharp early fractions and nearly pulling off an upset in the Blue Grass Stakes, finishing a gritty second. A Grade 1 winner at two and the beaten favorite in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he has class and early speed but will need to ration his energy more effectively over the Derby distance. Both his trainer and jockey are searching for their first Derby victory.
Video Past Performances
5-Apr-2025 | KEE | Blue Grass Stakes | 2nd |
5-Oct-2024 | KEE | Breeders’ Futurity | 1st |
13. Publisher (30-1)
Color/Sex: B. c
Bred: Ky by Brereton C. Jones
Sire: American Pharoah – Indian Pride (Proud Citizen)
Jockey: I. Ortiz Jr. • Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 7-0-2-3 • Earnings: $407,756
Owner: Gus King and The Estate of Brereton C. Jones • Age: 3
Publisher is that rare bird — a maiden running in the Kentucky Derby. Though winless, he’s hit been in the money five of seven outings and showed strong improvement in the Arkansas Derby, closing from well back into wicked fractions to be second. Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, who still seeks his first Derby win, Publisher’s form is on the rise, but the lack of a victory remains a glaring question mark.
Video Past Performances
29-Mar-2025 | OP | Arkansas Derby | 2nd |
22-Feb-2025 | OP | Rebel S. | 4th |
14. Tiztastic (20-1)
Color/Sex: Dk. b or br. c
Bred: Ky by Capital Bloodstock
Sire: Tiz the Law – Keesha (Tapit)
Jockey: J. Rosario • Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 8-3-1-2 • Earnings: $1,549,800
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC • Age: 3
Tiztastic arrives as a sharp closer who put it all together last time out in the Louisiana Derby, powering home for an impressive win. The son of Tiz the Law could be peaking at the right time. With Joel Rosario aboard and Steve Asmussen at the helm — both seasoned pros — this colt could be a major threat if the early pace heats up. He’s finished behind several of his rivals today — including Coal Battle, Sandman, and Sovereignty — so that poses a challenge.
Video Past Performances
22-Mar-2025 | FG | Louisiana Derby | 1st |
22-Feb-2025 | OP | Rebel S. | 5th |
25-Jan-2025 | OP | Southwest S. | 3rd |
30-Nov-2024 | CD | Kentucky Jockey Club | 3rd |
27-Oct-2024 | CD | Street Sense S. | 2nd |
15. Render Judgment (30-1)
Color/Sex: B. c
Bred: Ky by Green Lantern Stables
Sire: Blame – Barbara Gordon (Commissioner)
Jockey: J. R. Leparoux • Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 7-1-2-1 • Earnings: $250,672
Owner: Baccari Racing Stable, LLC • Age: 3
Render Judgment has shown flashes of promise, most notably in his last two races with blinkers on, but he still needs to take another step forward to truly contend in the Kentucky Derby. Despite his improvement, he remains an underdog with a modest record compared to others in the field. His trainer, Kenneth McPeek, will look to replicate his success from last year, where he won the Derby with Mystik Dan, but this colt, still winless against winners, will have to overcome a lot of competition.
Video Past Performances
5-Apr-2025 | KEE | Blue Grass Stakes | 5th |
15-Mar-2025 | CNL | Virginia Derby | 2nd |
21-Dec-2024 | FG | Gun Runner S. | 3rd |
16. Coal Battle (30-1)
Color/Sex: Dk. b or br. c
Bred: Ky by Hume Wornall & Jay Adcock
Sire: Coal Front – Wolfblade (Midshipman)
Jockey: J. P. Vargas • Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 8-5-0-1 • Earnings: $1,188,875
Owner: Norman Stables, LLC • Age: 3
Coal Battle is an intriguing prospect, known for his tactical versatility and ability to win from both the front and off the pace. His impressive earnings suggest that he’s no stranger to big races, although his last outing in the Arkansas Derby left him behind the top two and suffering his first loss to date on the main track. Trainer Lonnie Briley’s first Derby starter and jockey Juan Vargas’ strong campaign could make this colt a dark horse in the race. Briley has said he didn’t have this guy all the way cranked up for the Arkansas Derby, and he was well beaten. The Beyer figs say he’s not fast enough, but his race record, including a win over Sandman in the Rebel, and tactical flexibility warrant a longer look than 30-1 suggests.
Video Past Performances
29-Mar-2025 | OP | Arkansas Derby | 3rd |
22-Feb-2025 | OP | Rebel S. | 1st |
4-Jan-2025 | OP | Smarty Jones S. | 1st |
13-Dec-2024 | RP | Springboard Mile | 1st |
17. Sandman (6-1)
Color/Sex: Gr/ro. c
Bred: Ky by Lothenbach Stables Inc
Sire: Tapit – Distorted Music (Distorted Humor)
Jockey: J. L. Ortiz • Trainer: Mark Casse
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 8-3-1-2 • Earnings: $1,254,595
Owner: D. J. Stable, LLC • Age: 3
Sandman is an improving colt who closed nicely into a hot pace to win in the Arkansas Derby. His closing ability and best speed figures put him in contention for the Derby. Trainer Mark Casse, a Hall of Famer, has yet to win a Kentucky Derby, but Sandman could be the horse to change that. His late-running style could play to his advantage, especially if a fast pace develops.
Video Past Performances
29-Mar-2025 | OP | Arkansas Derby | 1st |
22-Feb-2025 | OP | Rebel S. | 3rd |
25-Jan-2025 | OP | Southwest S. | 2nd |
27-Oct-2024 | CD | Street Sense S. | 3rd |
14-Sep-2024 | CD | Iroquois S. | 5th |
18. Sovereignty (5-1)
Color/Sex: B. c
Bred: Ky by Godolphin
Sire: Into Mischief – Crowned (Bernardini)
Jockey: J. Alvarado • Trainer: William I. Mott
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 5-2-2-0 • Earnings: $572,800
Owner: Godolphin, LLC • Age: 3
Sovereignty is a colt with significant upside, although his most recent effort in the Florida Derby fell short of expectations. His maiden win came in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill, and he has the pedigree to handle the Derby distance. Sovereignty’s trainer, Bill Mott, has been in the spotlight with a Derby win (via DQ with Country House) and hopes Sovereignty will become his first runner to be first past the post in the Run for the Roses. A win over the strip helps, and the ability to close does, too.
Video Past Performances
29-Mar-2025 | GP | Florida Derby | 2nd |
1-Mar-2025 | GP | Fountain of Youth S. | 1st |
27-Oct-2024 | CD | Street Sense S. | 1st |
19. Chunk of Gold (30-1)
Color/Sex: Gr/ro. c
Bred: Ky by Brereton C. Jones
Sire: Preservationist – Play for Gold (Cairo Prince)
Jockey: J. Loveberry • Trainer: Ethan W. West
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 4-1-3-0 • Earnings: $348,818
Owner: Terry L. Stephens • Age: 3
Chunk of Gold posted a strong second-place finish in the Louisiana Derby. Though he has yet to break through with a win in stakes races, his tactical versatility and ability to be competitive with top competition are notable. After winning at first asking, Chunk of Gold has been second in all three starts against winners, all in stakes company, though despite solid late efforts, he was never a threat to the winner. Trainer Ethan West is making his Kentucky Derby debut with this colt, and jockey Jareth Loveberry will look to build on his previous second-place finish in the 2023 Derby.
Video Past Performances
22-Mar-2025 | FG | Louisiana Derby | 2nd |
15-Feb-2025 | FG | Risen Star | 2nd |
20. Owen Almighty (30-1)
Color/Sex: B. c
Bred: Ky by Mark Stanley
Sire: Speightstown – Tempers Rising (Bayern)
Jockey: J. J. Castellano • Trainer: Brian A. Lynch
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 7-3-2-0 • Earnings: $499,935
Owner: Flying Dutchmen • Age: 3
Owen Almighty has shown a strong record at shorter distances but last out faded after a bumpy start in the Blue Grass Stakes. With a win on the Churchill Downs surface under his belt, he’s proven he can handle the venue, but he will need a perfect trip to be a true contender and distance figures a bit of a question mark. Trainer Brian Lynch and jockey Javier Castellano will need everything to go right for this colt to make a significant impact.
Video Past Performances
8-Mar-2025 | TB | Tampa Bay Derby | 1st |
8-Feb-2025 | TAM | Sam F. Davis S. | 2nd |
14-Sep-2024 | CD | Iroquois S. | 2nd |
21. Baeza (12-1)
Color/Sex: B. c
Bred: Ky by Grandview Equine
Sire: McKinzie – Puca (Big Brown)
Jockey: F. Prat • Trainer: John Shirreffs
Starts-Wins-Places-Shows: 4-1-2-0 • Earnings: $148,500
Owner: C R K Stable, LLC • Age: 3
Baeza is a colt who lacks the top-level experience compared to many others in this competitive field. He took three tries to graduate and immediately jumped into stakes company in the Santa Anita Derby, where he gave likely Derby chalk Journalism all he wanted in a hard-fought defeat. Trainer John Shirreffs won the ’05 Derby with longshot Giacomo, and this later-developing runner has major upside — could be a huge threat in the Preakness if he doesn’t draw in here.
Video Past Performances
5-Apr-2025 | SA | Santa Anita Derby | 2nd |
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