LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: june 30, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$2,587
Jackpot Super High 5 — $0
Late Pick 5 —$10,521
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
6-5-4-2
#6 Heartfullofstars (8-5) arrived on the east coast from California about two months ago, and now makes his first start for Mertkan Kantarmaci. He was a vet scratch on June 22 at Delaware Park, but has worked at Belmont Park since then, so he should be ready to fire his best effort today. He showed a solid closing kick over the winter at Santa Anita Park, winning going away three starts back and getting second behind a front-running 2-5 shot two races ago. #5 Strugar (10-1) rebounded off two consecutive mid efforts to win going away at Delaware Park last out. He has great tactical speed, and should get a great pace-pressing trip. #4 Monday Morning Qb (5-1) has slowly improved wight each start since returning off a four-month layoff, most recently running a sharp brisnet figure of 85 when a strong-closing second at Penn National.
RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $30,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
7-6-4-1
#7 Magic Spin (6-1) has won his last three starts with improving figures each time, coming from just off the leaders each time. This Penn National-based gelding has never raced here before, but he’s live if his form transfers over. #6 Band Camp (6-1) has found his best self after a floundering start to his career, having won four of his last five starts. He jumped up dramatically to win his last race by almost eight lengths with a 96, a career-best mark by 11 points. Magic Spin will get the jump on him, but if that rival can’t last, Band Camp should be able to overpower the other. #4 B West (5-1) was claimed out of his last start by Keiron Magee. His last race was his first off a 10-month layoff, and he raced on the pace the whole way and got up to win over next-out winner Kadri.
- What we learned on Maryland Juvenile Stakes dayHere’s what we learned at Laurel Park for Saturday’s Maryland Juvenile and Maryland Juvenile Filly Stakes.
RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 FURLONGS
1-2-7-8
#1 Sir Mick (3-1) ran a big second on debut to next-out stakes winner Studlydoright, but broke slowly in his next start and was no factor from there. He takes blinkers off here, and has a strong five-furlong workout in the interim, going the distance in 1:00 3/5 on June 21. That’s the fastest of 11 workers that day. #2 Kitty’s Son (8-1) improved 15 points to a 73 second time out in his most recent race, where he pressed the pace and held second. That bodes well for a further-improved performance today. #7 El Mayo (5-2) was second at Monmouth Park at first asking and should get a similar trip as last time, racing on the pace while wide.
RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
3-1-6-7
Every so often, you’ll see a stakes winner show up in allowance company around here, and that’s the case with #3 Forever Souper (7-5). He gets some class relief after a pair of third-place finishes against listed stakes horses in his last two starts, which in turn followed back-to-back stakes wins against Florida-breds. He wasn’t able to wear down some tough customers in his most recent starts, but he should be able to overhaul these. #1 Yes This Time (9-5), one of tow in here for Nolan Ramset, makes his seasonal debut in this spot, after working for more than two months. He’s run in the 90s five times in his last six starts, but made less and less of an impact as the competition got tougher last year. Ramsey has been sharp with horses off the layoff in his short training career, going 3-for-7 so far. #6 Eldest Son (5-1) was claimed out of his last start by Ramsey, where he dealt with some traffic trouble and ended up making a mild bid for fourth. He knows this track well, and has enough late kick to at least get a share.
RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 FURLONGS
3-7-5-1
#3 Reggie Runs Rogue (6-1), co-bred by his owner and trainer, Justin Nixon, has a win-early pedigree. All three of his siblings to race won at either first or second asking. This one’s worktab has been promising, with four four-furlong drills faster than 49 2/5. #7 Little Bit Risky (5-2) is also a sibling to a plethora of 2-year-old winners and goes out for the win-early Salzman barn. He’s only had five drills, but they’ve all been solid. #5 All the Hardways (8-5) recovered from a bad break to grab second in his last start, and looks by far the best of the three in here with experience.
RACE 6: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
5-10-1-2
You can toss out the last race of #5 Valiant Vinny (8-1). It was his first start in six months, and in an off-the-grass event. As such, it was little surprise that be briefly showed speed and was eased up when out of contention. He ran in the 80s three times in a row to cap his 2023 season, including a game front-end effort two starts back where he set fast fractions and held second. #10 Boss is a Pal (9-5) pressed him all the way that day and overhauled him, and has since won two races in a row to begin his 2024 season. He beat Doctor Jeff by 4 1/2 lengths last out; that rival won next out and was a solid third yesterday. However, him and Valiant Vinny are overall pretty similar figure-wise, and Valiant Vinny will almost certainly offer the better value of the two. #1 Speak Unity (9-2) goes first off the claim by Brittany Russell. He set fast fractions and faded going two turns last out, and now cuts back. Look for him to get a nice trip near the pace on the rail.
- Maryland Juvenile: A mystery solved, decades laterSaturday’s Maryland Juvenile Stakes should be a fun race, but it’s unlikely to launch the careers of two Classic winners, like the 1982 edition did.
RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
1A-6-2-4
#1A Bestsugardaddyever (8-5) is my preferred half of the Jamie Ness-trained entry. He showed little at Parx last out, but now returns to his preferred track, on which he’s 3-for-4, including a perfect 2-for-2 record going 1 1/16 miles. #6 Vance Scholars (5-2) has rounded back into his best form, outfinishing some of these in his last few starts with consistent figures in the 90s. He’s run into tougher foes during that stretch, but should find these rivals easier. #2 Union Fleet (3-1) has run subpar figures in his last two starts over off tracks, but ran in the mid/upper-90s in each of is last two starts on a fast surface. He should improve on today’s track.
RACE 8: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 7 FURLONGS
6-8-3-7
#6 Mixzluckystarfyre (7-5) has a big figure edge over the rest of these. He’s run in the 80s in each of his last five starts, something most of these have never done at any point in their careers. As long he runs his usual race, he’ll win as much the best. #8 Catching Stars (5-1) broke his maiden two starts back in an improved effort second off a five-month layoff. he didn’t do much when switched to grass last out, but should improve with a return to the main track. #3 Wesley Thomas (6-1) also switches back to dirt and cuts back from a mile. He was consistently solid in sprints earlier this year and faced better in most of those races.
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