Trainer Lacey Gaudet had a New Year’s Eve hat trick to complete a torrid end to the year, and she and Carlos Mancilla led all conditioners in wins above expectations during the just-completed Laurel Park fall meet. Among jockeys, the consistent Angel Cruz secured the top spot during the meet in wins above expectations.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins; jockeys were limited to those with at least 25 starts at the Laurel fall meet, while trainers had to have made at least 15 starts during that period. The wins-above-expectations metric here is for the entire meet.

Cruz won 40 races during the meet, good for third in wins overall, trailing Jamie Rodriguez (50) and Jevian Toledo (49). But he was the only one among the lead trio to win more races than his odds would have predicted, as his 40 wins were 7.77 wins above expectations. That left him well clear of Jean Briceno (14 wins, 5.53 above expectations) and Forest Boyce (20, 5.40) in second and third, respectively.

In all, 28 riders made at least 25 starts at Laurel during the fall stand, and 14 of them met or exceeded expectations based on the odds of their mounts.

Sheldon Russell led all jockeys by percentage of purse earned, securing about 16.6% of available purse money in his 138 starts during the stand. Others doing well in that category include Rodriguez (14.9%), Jevian Toledo (14.7%), Boyce (14.2%), and Jeiron Barbosa (13.4%).

MARYLAND JOCKEYS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (at least 25 starts during Laurel meet)

JOCKEY	STARTS	WINS	EXPECTED WINS	WIN %	WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS
Cruz Angel	264	40	32.23	15.15%	7.77
Briceno Jean Gregor	130	14	8.47	10.77%	5.53
Boyce Forest	124	20	14.60	16.13%	5.40
Lyapustina Tais	53	8	4.51	15.09%	3.49
Araujo Denis	34	6	2.68	17.65%	3.32
Chavez Andres	84	9	7.61	10.71%	1.39
Gomez Kevin	33	4	3.23	12.12%	0.77
Rojas Martina	170	21	20.38	12.35%	0.62
Hernandez Jorge F	102	8	7.68	7.84%	0.32
Alvelo Jean C	96	6	5.83	6.25%	0.17
Acosta J D	30	2	1.89	6.67%	0.11
Crispin Alexander	50	4	3.99	8.00%	0.01
Rodriguez Darwin L	28	1	0.99	3.57%	0.01

Gaudet’s year-ending triple capped a month in which she won with 13 of 25 local starters to finish 19-for-55 during the Laurel stand; that was 8.21 wins above expectations, good for second in that category behind Mancilla. His 17 wins (from 58 starters at the meet) were 9.47 more than his odds would have predicted.

Overall, 58 trainers made at least 15 starts during the track’s fall meet, and almost half of them — 26 — won more races than their odds would have predicted.

Mancilla and Gaudet also lead the way in percentage of purse money earned during the meet, with Mancilla at 22.2% and Gaudet just behind at 21.8%. They are followed by Brittany Russell (20.9%), Kieron Magee (20.5%), and Jamie Ness (19.7%).

MARYLAND TRAINERS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (at least 15 starts during Laurel fall meet)

TRAINER	WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS	STARTS	WINS	EXPECTED WINS
Mancilla Carlos A	9.47	58	17	7.53
Gaudet Lacey	8.21	55	19	10.79
Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo	6.68	125	20	13.32
Corrales Jose	6.31	75	13	6.69
Brion Keri	2.84	32	7	4.16
Alvarado Diane	2.75	33	6	3.25
Ness Jamie	2.34	146	36	33.66
Shankle Joanne	1.85	20	4	2.15
McKenzie Daniel J	1.65	24	4	2.35
Cooney Susan S	1.59	25	3	1.41
Magee Kieron	1.46	86	18	16.54
Howard David C	1.42	43	7	5.58
Meyers Madison F	1.01	17	2	0.99
Salzman John E Jr	0.98	32	6	5.02
Matz Michael R	0.97	26	4	3.03
De Paz Horacio	0.85	35	5	4.15
Sillaman Richard P	0.79	38	5	4.21
Lynch Cathal	0.76	26	3	2.24
Cibelli Jane	0.67	25	4	3.33
Smith Hamilton A	0.55	73	9	8.45
Ginter Raymond Jr	0.53	54	7	6.47
Lawrence James Lee	0.48	23	2	1.52
Eubanks Annette M	0.47	27	3	2.53
Russell Brittany T	0.38	146	37	36.62
Cox Kenneth M	0.29	28	3	2.71
Perri Gina	0.20	30	2	1.80

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