Laurel Park picks and ponderings November 19, 2021

by John Piassek | Nov 19, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

14-15-12-4 (DIRT: 2-10-9-8)
#14 Perfume River (2/1) drops to this level for the first time and has closed strongly in her last two races. Jevian Toledo keeps the mount after picking it up for the first time last out. #15 Downtown Katie (5/2) made a big, sweeping move last out against better and flattened out in the last few strides. Outside of one bad effort two starts back when she was in over her head class-wise, she hasn’t run a brisnet figure lower than 68 on the grass in her career. #12 Magical Charm (5/1) tries winners for the first time after an impressive maiden claiming win last out. That was her first start in seven weeks; now she’s racing off another seven-week break. She should get a good trip rating off the pace on the outside.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

4-1-6-5

#4 Arbutus (6/1) has won twice in a row against conditioned claimers, both times at long odds. She ran a big race on the lead last out, and has early speed in a race with lots of deep closers. #1 Parched Ghost (7/2) has run in the 70s in three of her last four starts and goes second off the layoff. She’s got some of the best late pace figures in the race, and isn’t as deep a closer as some of her rivals. #6 Congress Hall (5/2) also consistently runs in the 70s and just missed against slightly better three races back.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $25,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/8 MILES

1-7-6-5
#1 Bettheover (7/2) was an impressive maiden winner in his first start around two turns at Delaware Park. He improved his career-best mark fourteen points, up to an 82. #7 All For Love (3/1) stretches out around two turns for the first time for the white-hot Jerry Robb/Xavier Perez. He’s run lifetime-top figures in each of his last three starts, including a 76 when racing wide over a rail-favoring track in the Maryland Million Nursery. His closing style makes me think he’ll enjoy the extra distance. #6 Rustys Gfivefifty (6/1) drew off impressively last out to win by more than nine lengths, despite consistent early pace pressure. As long as he can clear to the rail and the lead by the first turn, he should be in good shape.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS

5-2-3-4
#5 Shake Em Loose (8/5) dropped for a tag for the first time last out and was a strong-closing fourth despite a wide trip. Shouldn’t have much of a problem with these. #2 I’m Not Slow (8/1) got bet in his first start off the layoff last out, but lived up to his name by missing the break. He still improved twelve points in that performance. Adds blinkers and is a threat if he gets away well. #3 Heartness (2/1) has disappointed at low odds before, but has run figures as high as 71 in the past and takes a career-low drop in class.

RACE 5 – CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

3-6-5-9
#3 Moneyinthebanksey (3/1) generally races well when he gets to the lead, but he couldn’t get there last time, and he stopped badly. He has a great draw and not much competition for the front. The most pace pressure might come from #6 El Equalizer (3/1), who broke his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion in July. He was on a very hot pace in his first start against winners and backed up badly. It’s unlikely the tempo will be as fast here, but he’ll still want to avoid engaging with Moneyinthebanksey too hard. #5 Amazing Cat (8/1) ran a much-improved race last out, drops in class, and goes third off a long break. His two-turn form has been mixed, at best, but he showed promise against slightly better most recently and will be poised to take advantage of a potential fast pace.
RACE 6: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
3-12-8-9 (DIRT: 6-11-14-4)
#3 By the Sey Shore (6/1) has run big races in each of his last two starts, closing frantically both times only to just miss. He packs a powerful late punch and should go off at decent odds in this wide-open contest. #12 Hard to be Humble (9/2) crossed the wire second last out after setting a very fast pace, but was disqualified. He still ran a career-best figure of 84, and is lightly-raced with lots of early speed. The post position does him no favors, however. #8 Justwaveandsmile (9/2) has won twice in a row against claimers and now gets his class test. He’s taken steps forward in each of his grass races this year, including a career-best grass mark of 83 last out.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

10-9-2-1
#10 Stay In (5/1) was a solid-closing second last out, earning a figure of 81 in his second start off a eight-month layoff. He’s racing for just the third time against winners, and the second time at this condition. #9 Dreaming of Carats (4/1) will almost certainly be in front early on, but hasn’t really shown the necessary stamina to hold on and actually win. He’s a good candidate to round out exactas and trifectas. #2 Mutakaamil (5/1) broke his maiden in his 20th career start last out, and was claimed out of his last race by Kieron Magee. He earned a 77 with a great stalking trip in that win, and has run figures as high as 90 in the past. His backers will hope the “lightbulb” angle applies to him.
RACE 8: STARTER ALLOWANCE $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
8-5-7-1
After a series of near-misses, #8 Kingston Pike (4/1) finally broke through to win in a photo finish last out. He has tactical speed that suits six-furlong races very well. #5 Powerful Ally (3/1) ships from Parx and is the main early speed in the race. He adds blinkers and has won three of his last four starts at six furlongs. #7 His Name is Sue (5/2) has hit the board in his last ten starts, all of which have come at Penn National. He’s drawn to the inside of Kingston Pike here, so he’ll be able to outhustle that rival for the lead and keep him on the outside. The only question is if this one can hold on after likely getting pressed.
RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS

1-3-2-5
#1 Auction Kingdom (2/1) made a strong move but flattened out in his dirt debut, earning a figure of 69 in the process. Cutting back from a mile should help. #3 Uncle Gary G (5/2) was rushed up after a bad break on debut and held on to get fifth and earn a 64. Ships here from a maiden claiming race at Penn National; probably an equivalent class move. #2 Axxerator (5/2) has recent impressive figures, including a 76 two races back. He made what looked like a winning move in that race, but stopped in the last eighth. That was at a mile and 70 yards; we’ll see how he takes to seven furlongs.