Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 31, 2021

Horses race down the stretch at Laurel Park. Photo: The Racing Biz.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $2,240 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $8,775

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE 

• 13-14-15-16

• We’re off the grass for the Halloween card. That’s not too scary, however, as there weren’t many scheduled grass races in the first place. #13 One Most Wanted (9/2) was a strong-closing second in his last dirt start, with a relatively impressive brisnet figure of 69. Looks to have lots of room for improvement. #14 Rippolino (4/1) has also been quickly improving in his last few starts, running a 73 last out with a game, wide bid in a six-furlong contest. He loomed large in that race but couldn’t seal the deal. The longer distance might help. #15 Transfer the Funds (15/1) was a grinding third in his last dirt start, and should also benefit from a surface switch. He’s improved his figure in each of his last two dirt races.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

6-5-7-2

In a race where lots of these have trouble winning, #6 Gavichi (9/5) looks like a breath of fresh air. She broke her maiden at second asking last out at Delaware Park, with a figure of 80. That’s the best last-out dirt figure in the race by nine points. Everyone else except one horse has lost against winners; in fact, six of her eight rivals have lost against winners at least three times. #5 Little Ms Scarlet (7/2) is the only other one coming off a maiden-breaking score, having shipped back down to Maryland won against $10,000 types last out. Claudio Gonzalez is 20% with recent maiden-breakers. #7 Americas Woman (12/1) won her last dirt start, and has had many unsuccessful grass tries since then that muffle her form. Looks like the value play of the group. 

RACE 3: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

• 5-1-8-3
• #5 Mavilus (6/1) was an impressive gate-to-wire winner at Monmouth Park two races back, then got hung wide and tired over the rail-favoring track at the Maryland Million last Saturday. She’ll try to work out a more fair trip here.  #1 Who U Gonna Call (7/2) has been fairly unremarkable on grass lately, but was a sharp second, with a figure of 82, in her most recent dirt start at Pimlico. Should rate a great trip off the pace on the inside. Her stablemate, #8 Stefanie on Fleek (4/1), makes her third start for the Claudio Gonzalez barn, and has taken steps forward in her two recent grass races. She’ll try to carry that form over to dirt. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

• 4-3-2-7
• #4 Assembly Point (10/1) broke his maiden in impressive gate-to-wire style at Mountaineer two back, then had a terrible trip at Saratoga last out and backed up. He was claimed out of that race by Lacey Gaudet, who gave him a freshening before returning him to the races. Could sneak through the cracks in the betting. #3 Striking it Lucky (9/2) recovered from a bad break to fly and just miss in his last start against slightly weaker. He ran easily a lifetime-top figure on dirt, a 76. #2 Galilean Moon (6/1) has hit the board eleven times from 22 starts, but has just one win to show for it. A good type to use underneath.
• RACE 5-  MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/8 MILES

• 8-6-7-14
• This race begins the late pick 5, a tough sequence with a carryover of just over $8,000. #8 Conclusive (5/2) improved second time out when stretching out to a route for the first time. He’s one of the few in here proven at a route of ground on dirt. Mike Trombetta is still sitting on 1,998 wins. #6 Twist ‘n Twirl (7/2) stretches out for the first time for Graham Motion, who is 18% with horses going a route of ground for the first time. He’s run no worse than a 70 in two starts so far. #7 Giantsbane (12/1) ran a respectable 62 on debut at Delaware Park after an overland trip. Will try to improve second out at a big number.

RACE 6-  MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

• 7-5-10-8
• #7 Sloe Gin Biz (9/2) battled well with favored Heavenly Trip last out, and while he couldn’t outduel that rival, he outfinished the others and got second. He’s run no worse than 68 in two starts since coming back from a brief freshening in late August. #5 Shake Em Loose (6/1) finished second on debut for a $25,000 tag, then struggled when stepping up to straight maidens three times. The return to a friendlier field should suit him well. #10 Stronger Than Dex (4/1) got plenty of wagering action on debut against straight maidens, going off at 6/1. He had a tough load and a wide trip, and subsequently showed little. A bit concerned Jerry Robb is dropping him in for a tag so quickly, but he doesn’t have to set the world on fire to contend in this group.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7– ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

• 8-4-3-6
• #8 After the Party (8/5) broke her maiden impressively at Belmont Park in early June, and races for the first time since then here. Turned in a bullet workout last Sunday at Saratoga, suggesting that she’s as sharp as ever. #4 Princess Kokachin (5/2) has blazing early speed and will try to take this field as far as she can, as fast as she can. She’s won three of her last four races while being on or near the pace every time. #3 Not On My Watch (10/1) showed little on grass last out, in her first start in more than eight months. She was in improving form over the fall and winter before being shut down, and will try to improve second off the layoff for Brittany Russell. 
• RACE 8 — ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 4-5-11-2
• #4 Pretty Edgy (7/2) has been working very well recently, as she prepares for her first start since September 12. She tends to rate off the pace and fall apart late, but has been doing most of her running at six furlongs and 6 1/2 furlongs. Today’s distance should suit her well. #5 A Girl Named Jac (3/1) also has good tactical speed and has hit the board in her last two against similar. Although this is technically a step up from the starter optional claiming foes she previously faced, it’s not a particularly tough group for this level. #11 Honorgetic (7/2) briefly led and ran a 74 in her last dirt start, which was last October. She’s had three tries on grass since then and may improve with a return to this surface and some maturity. 
• RACE 9 — MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE
• 7-6-4-9
• #7 Run on the Trail (5/2) keeps moving forward with every start, and peaked at a 77 last out in a game second-place performance at Delaware. He showed serious early speed that day for the first time. #6 Papa Charles (3/1) drops for a tag for the first time, after earning a 65 on debut with a mild late bid. Stretching out from six furlongs might help. #4 Money Code (9/2) outdueled his sparring partner and held on well before fading late last out. That was the first time in three starts he’s been forwardly placed.

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