Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 29, 2021

by | Oct 29, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $340 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $3,246.87

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

  • 4-3-8-9 (DIRT: 12-2-3-6)
  • There’s a chance of rain today, so be advised the grass races may be moved to the dirt. #4 Fox Force Five (7/2) broke her maiden first asking in mid-July, and ran a sharp brisnet figure of 74 last out against better. She drops to the n/w2L level for the first time for Jane Cibelli and has lots of room to improve. #3 Ms Boombastic (4/1) has gotten well-bet in her two starts at this level, but has made decent ground to finish in the superfecta in both those starts. She’ll have a better shot if she can stay close to the pace. #8 Hot Choice (6/1) made her grass debut last out, and was a strong-closing second at 44/1. She earned a figure of 76 in that race, tied for the best last-out mark in the race. You won’t get 44/1 again, but she should be a very bettable price. 

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

6-1-3-2

 None of the four in here with experience have set the world on fire, so I’ll take a shot with a first-time starter. #6 Playboy Roy (3/1) makes his career debut for Anthony Farrior, who is 25% with first-time starters. While most of those wins have come at Charles Town, this group is about equivalent to the maiden special weight fields he wins in there. Arnaldo Bocachica has the mount, his only ride at Laurel today. That’s encouraging. #1 Dontcrossfuzzy (9/5) hasn’t been worse than fourth in four career starts. He chased the winner in his lone try at the level, but held on to finish second. Might get overbet but is in with a chance. #3 Notion to Tapit (9/2) cuts back in distance and drops in class after a dull showing last out. He ran a 64 over a wet track on debut, and may get similar conditions here. 

 

RACE 3: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

  • 5-9-7-10 (DIRT: 12-16-8-4)
  • #5 Beautiful Tiz (7/2) ran a lifetime-top figure of 78 two back, and matched that mark last out with a strong third-place finish in her first start at this level. Angel Cruz gets the mount for the first time. #9 Beam of Light (9/5) drops to this level for the first time and goes third off the layoff for Mike Trombetta. She’ll likely do her best running late. #7 Admonish (12/1), a rare North Carolina-bred, drops to this level for the first time and ships down from Woodbine. She’s improved in each of her four grass starts, peaking at a 71 last out. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONG

  • 2-5-4-1
  • #2 Moquist (8/5) made waves two weeks ago when she impressively won a n/w1x race by 3 1/2 lengths, expanding her mark to a perfect 3-for-3. She’s taking a double jump in class, but that shouldn’t be too much trouble for her. She’s run in the 90s in her last two races; no one in this field can do that consistently. Both her main rivals are coming off long layoffs. #5 Needs Supervision (7/2) won the Safely Kept Stakes here in 2019 and just missed third in the Barbara Fritchie Stakes earlier this year. She hasn’t raced since March 6, when she was fourth in the Heavenly Prize. #4 Dontletsweetfoolya (5/2) goes out for the first time since June 13, when she was hung wide and backed up in the Shine Again Stakes. She won five in a row towards the end of last year, including two stakes races. Her form hasn’t been that great this year, but perhaps the time off did her some good. 

RACE 5 – MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES

  • 1-3-7-6
  • #1 Mohaafeth (5/1) has improved in each of his three starts, earning a 78 last out with a strong-closing third. In his lone two-turn try two back, he finished fourth in a race where the first and third-place finishers came back to win. #3 Flying With Angels (4/1) goes third off the layoff for Kelly Rubley. He was very wide last out as the favorite and faded; this trip should be easier. #7 Callyourightback (9/2) was second on debut in a dirt sprint, then stretched out on grass last out and faded. That track wasn’t playing well towards speed horses, should find things a bit easier here.

RACE 6: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

  • 6-12-13-5 (DIRT: 4-11-2-8)
  • #6 Defy Expectations (3/1) went off as the favorite at this level last out, and made a bold bid for the lead before tiring in the last eighth. She was an impressive winner against starter optional claiming horses two back. Feargal Lynch keeps the mount; he’s 3-for-8 when teaming up with Brittany Russell as of late. You’ll get a good price if you still believe. #12 Smooth Pebble (4/1) was also favored at the level last out at Monmouth. She won a multi-horse photo for second as the slight favorite. Christophe Clement ships her down from New York in an interesting maneuver, and picks up Jevian Toledo. She’ll rate right off the lead on the outside. #13 Likely Choice (8/1) will do her best running at the end. She’s hit the board twice at this level at decent prices. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

  • 1-5-6-8
  • #1 Bourbon and Ice (8/1) was eight-wide entering the stretch last out, but closed strongly in the last eighth and missed by just half a length. He hasn’t run worse than an 80 in three consecutive races. #5 Where U B (4/1) has won three races in a row, and is the dominant early speed in the race. He’s a serious threat to take them gate-to-wire. #6 Natty Beau (4/1) goes first off the claim for Hugh McMahon and hasn’t missed the board in his last six races, all against similar horses to what he’ll see here. 
  • RACE 8:  ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
  • 1-2-15-12 (DIRT: 1-11-8-12)
  • #1 Montauk Daddy (5/1) ships from New York for Rob Atras, who is scheduled to make his first Maryland start of the year here. He has great early speed and an excellent post position from which to flaunt it. #2 Hard to be Humble (4/1) goes third off the layoff and is rapidly improving form. He’ll likely press Montauk Daddy from his outside. #15 Ignited (6/1) ships to Laurel for the first time after racing in the midwest. He showed little when going around two turns last out, but now cuts back around one turn and is very fast out of the gate.
  • RACE 9: STARTER ALLOWANCE $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 7 FURLONGS
  • 9-5-4-3
  • #9 Sneakiness (3/1) has earned at least an 84 in six consecutive races, giving him a solid advantage over the rest of his rivals. He lasted on the pace to win against similar at Parx last out. #5 Kingston Pike (7/2) chased Super Gamer around the track last out and flattened out. There’s no one in here as good as that one, so things should be easier for this tactically speedy gelding. #4 Victory Element (4/1) ran third off the layoff last out at Penn National, and he exploded to an eight-length win with a figure of 89. Will be tough if he can maintain that form. 

 

 

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About The Author

John Piassek

John Piassek has written about mid-Atlantic racing for The Racing Biz, Danonymous Racing, and his current website, the Daily Gallop. He graduated from Loyola University Maryland in 2018 with a degree in marketing, and is a member of the inaugural Maryland Thoroughbred Career Program class of 2017. Find John on twitter: @theyreoff.

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