Delaware Park Handicappers’ Notebook 2019 Vol. 6
In the paddock on Delaware Handicap day. Photo by Allison Janezic.
Correspondent Doug McCoy returns with his weekly Delaware Park Handicappers’ Notebook, featuring horses to watch, bet-backs, and more.
Horses and races to watch
R HOT TWENTY’S (June 15, Race 3) -Turned in a sneaky good race behind a runaway winner last. Was blocked to mid stretch and while form is spotty this one could jump up and run well at a huge price next out.
BEACHTREASURE GIRL (June 15, Race 4) – After falling back at the start this one made a long and sustained gain in a slow-paced race. Was first start around two turns and second career outing while rising in class. Slight drop next would make her tough.
ADIOS ANNIE (June 15, Race 6) – This one lost all chance after stumbling badly at the start of her sprint last time out. Was well-backed for that one and has a solid record, deserves another chance.
CREDIT SWAP (June 12, Race 7) – Was dead game in first start since November and first race around two turns in the Stanton Stakes, never giving in through a long drive before being narrowly outkicked late. Will be hard to handle with that one under his belt.
- TOM’S MUSIC (June 12, Race 3) – Was in tight quarters while making a strong middle move, then once swung clear into the stretch, just blew by the leaders to win with something left. Sharp right now.
Jock/trainer Watch: Performers of the week
It’s taken about a year for jockey Trevor McCarthy to get back in full swing in the Mid-Atlantic after coming back from New York, but if results from last week’s races are an indication, he’s back to the Trevor McCarthy who dominated in the area for several years. McCarthy rode 18 horses last week and found the winner’s circle with nine of those, a sizzling 50% strike rate, and he was 8-for-12 on the main track. McCarthy now has 14 wins from 43 mounts (33%) while splitting his time among Delaware Park, Laurel, Parx and Monmouth, to rank third in the standings.
- Trainer Jamie Ness ran one-two with five of seven starters, including three winners, to move into third in the standings with seven wins to date.
Handicapper’s tool box
SHORT-PRICED HORSES FROM LOW-PERCENTAGE BARNS
Sharp players are always looking for value plays from high-percentage barns, and the shrewd ones have also learned to shy away from short-priced runners from outfits with low winning percentage.
Taking very low odds, especially less than 2-1, for a horse sent out by a trainer who’s winning at under 10% is generally not a smart move. If you’re going to bet on horses from ow-percentage barns, then you should be sure to have a chance for a healthy return. If you find a short-priced favorite from a barn that seldom wins, you should either pass the race or search for the logical second-best runner as an alternative.
Among trainers with at least five wins at the current meet, the leaders in terms of wagering ROI are, in order, Sam Cronk, Jose Camejo, Anthony Pecoraro, Gerald Bennett, and Lynn Ashby’s Arabian operation. All five trainers have positive ROIs to date, meaning a player wagering all of their starters to win would, thus far, be showing a profit.