In the latest edition of our weekly feature with Maryland racing analyst Gabby Gaudet, she plays a Pick 3 and digs into a maiden special weight race.
The skinny: Three-year-olds going about 1 1/16 miles.
Notably: Three of the runners are nominated to the Triple Crown.
Gabby’s take: “I think this is a great handicapping race. I think 2-1 on the favorite is not good value, and that opens it up to be a very good betting race.”
[boxify cols_use =”3″ cols =”6″ position =”right” box_spacing =”5″ padding =”3″ background_color =”gray” background_opacity =”10″ border_width =”1″ border_color =”blue” border_style =”solid” height =”220″ ]GABBY’S PICK THREE TICKET
- Race 7 – 2, 4, 9, 10
- Race 8 – 2, 6, 7
- Race 9 – 2, 4, 5, 6, 8
- Ticket cost ($0.50 unit): $30[/boxify]
SCOPING OUT THE SEVENTH[su_list icon=”icon: check”]
- The particulars: 3yo, about 1 1/16 miles
- Conditions: Maiden special weight.
- Post time: 3:27 EST.
- The favorite: #4 Perpetual Optimism (2-1) has finished second three times against similar company, which is both the good news — he obviously fits here — and the bad (why take short odds on a horse who’s failed to beat similar four times?). Newly gelded son of First Defence has been away since finishing second in a mid-December tilt, but none of the five to run back has won. Trainer Ignacio Correas has tried several different approaches: twice sprinting, twice going one-turn miles, three times with blinkers, once without, and now gelded and going two turns. “I just think they haven’t found what makes hiim click just yet,” Gabby says. “Maybe this will.” Bottom line: “He’s a threat for obvious reasons,” says Gabby. “So you have to use him in multi-race wagers to cover yourself. But it’s hard to love him.”
- The pick: #10 Gursky (12-1) was a well-beaten fourth in his only start, back in December. But that was going 5 1/2 furlongs, and he has the right to improve on the stretch out; by Lemon Drop Kid out of a Touch Gold mare, he’s bred to go a route of ground and ran to that in his debut, lagging 20 lengths off the pace before rallying too late. “Trainer Mike Trombetta said this horse wants no part of 5 1/2 furlongs before his debut,” says Gabby, which makes that race more of a work, and he’s showing a steady work tab since. The place horse that day, Jackson P, broke his maiden next out. Bottom line: “This is one of my best bets of the day,” says Gabby.
- Green: #3 Time Out (3-1) did a lot wrong in his debut and seemed to struggle with getting dirt kicked in his face (see video below). But he closed nicely once he found a seam and appears to have some talent. He’s been away since that November debut — a race that’s produced one next-out winner — but has been working steadily since, most recently a bullet half-mile. “The negative that I saw – and this may change with added distance – is he was still very green,” says Gabby. That will need to change for him to win today. The bottom line: Too green to use today, but maybe in the future.
- The improver: #9 Team Tim (7-2) is the kind of horse, says Gabby, who “will gradually improve.” He was fourth in his debut, second in his next try. Today, trainer Tim Keefe stretches out the son of Sharp Humor for the first time. “He’s a horse who takes time to learn things, but he’s a big, beautiful horse,” says Gabby. Bottom line: Look for an improved effort — maybe improved enough to get the money.
- The wild card: #2 Slick William (10-1) will need to take a big step forward — following eighth- and fifth-place finishes against similar — to make an impact here. But he comes from the red-hot Hamilton Smith barn (7-for-17 at Laurel this year), and if he can correct one obvious flaw — his slow breaks — he has a chance to improve significantly. Bottom line: Put him on the ticket.
TIME OUT — 11/4/14
In the video below, Time Out (#3, in burgundy and gold) is close up early. But midway through the video, he begins to take dirt in the face. He flinches away from it, throws his head up, and backs out of contention. He’ll need to get over that problem to improve today.[su_video url=”https://www.theracingbiz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/timeoutdebut.mp4.mp4″ poster=”https://www.theracingbiz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/never-8656.jpg” title=”Time Out takes dirt in the face.” width=”420″]
(Featured image, of Ben’s Cat, by Laurie Asseo.)