MJC analyst Gabby Gaudet will share her longshot and exotic plays with The Racing Biz each Saturday. Photo courtesy of the Maryland Jockey Club.
In the latest edition of our weekly feature with Maryland racing analyst Gabby Gaudet, she gives us a ticket in the late Pick 3 at Laurel Park, and we drill down into the details of the ninth race, a first-level allowance on the turf.
RACE 9
The skinny: First-level allowance for fillies and mares, three-year-olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles on the turf
Notably: Full field attracts a diverse group, from stakes-placed Happy Face to Heart and Seek, recently running for a nickel.
Gabby’s bottom line: “If you’re looking to go against what I think is a vulnerable favorite in #11 Acquant, I think this is a really interesting race because you can get value.”
- #7 Ear D’Rhythm
- Daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has won two of seven, most recently ninth in an allowance at Saratoga.
- Comment line: “Hedge 1st, 6p 3/16.”
- Gabby’s take: “She didn’t show much last out, but from top to bottom that was a solid allowance field; the winner, Invading Humor has won four straight, including a stake, and Sky Painter, the place horse, is Grade 3- placed. Plus, those middle fractions, they really slowed it down, and this horse is a closer.”
- Fractional thinking: After an opening quarter in 24 2/5 seconds, it took the field 50.87 to navigate the next half-mile in that last race. There wasn’t much chance Ear D’Rhythm could make up a five-length gap after that leisurely stroll.[/boxify]
Race analysis:
> #11 ACQUANT is a vulnerable favorite in here. I in no way can take 5-2 or less on a horse that took nine times to break the maiden, and I’m not sure she’ll be fast enough to clear the speed inside of her, so the post position is another thing that works against her.
> #1 CHIFFONADE is a three-year-old filly going against older and tougher. I like the fact that she could probably take back, but that rail post with such a big field is going to be a big hindrance to try to find room.
> #9 HAPPY FACE is another horse to look at. She ran fifth in the Brookmeade last out, but there were some things to like there: it was her second time on Lasix, first time going two turns with Lasix,and she was coming off a nearly one-year layoff. Plus, horses like the top two, Embar and Misty in Malibu, they’re pretty different horses from what she’s seeing in here.
DIGGING INTO… #2 KILCOOLE MISS
“Usually when I play allowance races like this, I’m looking at class — what kind of company these horses have been facing recently and what they’re facing today. From that perspective, #7 Ear D’Rhythm and #9 Happy Face are very intriguing.
[boxify cols_use =”2″ cols =”6″ position =”right” box_spacing =”5″ padding =”3″ background_color =”gray” background_opacity =”10″ border_width =”1″ border_color =”blue” border_style =”solid” height =”180″ ]BONUS PICK THREE- Race 9 — 1, 2, 7, 9, 11
- Race 10 –2, 3, 7
- Race 11 — 3, 8, 10
- Ticket cost: $22.50 (50-cent unit)[/boxify]
“But I think #2 Kilcoole Miss, who doesn’t really measure up on class — she won last out against maiden claimers — is really interesting in here. Her debut race was so easy. it just showed a level of maturity. And she’s bred for this. Her sire, Pleasantly Perfect’s best runner was a turf horse (Shared Account), and Chester House, her broodmare sire, has been a distance influence, too. She could be a sneaker, and I like the fact that she’s four – won her debut facing older, wiser. You have to hold against her that she broke her maiden in the claiming ranks, but I thought it was in pretty respectable time and it was pretty effortless. And this is probably the distance and surface that she wants.”
“Good luck!”
(Featured image, of Ben’s Cat, by Laurie Asseo.)
