Triple Crown: Florida Derby picks and analysis
100 Kentucky Derby points on the line
Joseph Aiello
March 27, 2026
Run at nine furlongs on the Gulfstream dirt course, the Florida Derby remains perhaps the premier Kentucky Derby prep race. Some 26 Derby winners competed in this prep en route to Churchill Downs.
With eventual Derby winner Sovereignty running second here last year, he continued a string of near-misses in the Florida Derby for trainer Bill Mott, who saddles the 2/1 morning line favorite Chief Wallabee in this field of nine. Chief Wallabee, the 2-1 morning line favorite after finishing a close second to Commandment (5/2) in the Fountain of Youth, will make just his third start and has his work cut out for him against a talented group.
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On paper, four of these appear to be ahead of the others, and all carry Derby points into this race. Chief Wallabee picked up 25 points in his Fountain of Youth second-place finish to Brad Cox’s Commandment, who gained 50 with his win. Todd Pletcher’s Holy Bull winner Nearly (3/1), grabbed 20 points before skipping the Fountain of Youth, while Tampa Derby winner The Puma leads them all with 56. While Commandment and The Puma are near shoo-ins for Kentucky, Chief Wallabee and Nearly need to hit the board to guarantee a spot in the Churchill gate. With 100 points to the winner and 200 overall, this last-gasp prep is vital for the top four, and even more important for those hoping to sneak their way into the Run for the Roses.
In a race which had plenty of speed, the Fountain of Youth set up for late finishers as Chief Wallabee and Commandment closed from off the lead after sitting seventh and fifth respectively for the first half-mile. Here, it appears that Nearly should be in control if he repeats his Holy Bull, where he pressed a sub-46 half-mile. Going two turns in that try for the first time, Nearly was met with praise from his trainer, who always had the Florida Derby in mind as his next start.
“Since he’s 3-for-3 at Gulfstream, I think the Florida Derby would be a logical target,” Pletcher said after the Jan. 31 Holy Bull.
While a few others have shown speed, only the outside-breaking Gregarious (50/1) has come close to fractions that Nearly ran last time, doing so in a maiden debut which remains his lone try. The speedy Redland Rebels appears aimed for Oaklawn, which could leave Nearly with a tactical advantage if he puts away the longshots early.
An under-the-radar winner of the Tampa Derby, The Puma (9/2), was 7/1 there following a distant third in the Sam F. Davis. Finishing behind this weekend’s Arkansas Derby favorite Renegade in that one, The Puma was also bested by returning longshot Wayne’s Law (15/1), who led most of the way before settling for second in the Davis.
In the Tampa Derby, The Puma put forth a top effort in a last to first triumph where the pace fell apart. He may still be a notch below the top three runners here but simply needs a good effort to prove to his connections that he deserves a shot in the Kentucky Derby.
THE PICKS
1. #6 Nearly (3-1) – Has destroyed his rivals in three local starts and was the easiest kind of winner in the Holy Bull; has tactical ability to get a good trip.
2. #4 Commandment (5-2) – Rallied smartly to win the Fountain of Youth last out for his third consecutive win, two in stakes company locally; has been favored in all four of his starts, a streak which, if the linemaker is right, may be in jeopardy here.
3. #2 Chief Wallabee (2-1) – Validated trainer Mott’s decision to go from maiden win to stakes company with a close second in the Fountain of Youth; tons of upside.
4. #8 The Puma (9-2) – Scored a surprise win in the Tampa Bay Derby and is headed in the right direction for the connections of Derby winner Mage.
Of the longshots, Riley Mott’s inside breaking Albus (20/1) has shown improvement in three straight maiden races, finally breaking through in his most recent try. He could be near the lead with Wayne’s Law, who still needs to take a step forward. Timeless Victory (20/1) enters from a similar boat, but is more experienced with all six of his tries over this course. Even as he flashed his most potential in an allowance win last time, a repeat wouldn’t be enough as he has sat on softer fractions in his two route wins.
A top two finish will put any of these runners into the Kentucky Derby, assuming they are healthy. With a strong track record of Derby winners coming from this Gulfstream prep, the Florida Derby remains the one to watch going into the first Saturday in May.
The Florida Derby has a post time of 6:42 PM EST as the fourteenth race on Gulfstream’s Saturday card.
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