Triple Crown: Louisiana Derby picks and analysis
100 Kentucky Derby points on the line
Joseph Aiello
March 21, 2026
The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby kicks off the first group of 100-point Derby preps. Historically not the strongest prep, the last decade has bucked that trend with many runners from the Fair Grounds putting in strong Derby performances. A top two finish here all but guarantees qualification for any of these nine, as the top trainers enter some of their best three-year-old colts for a likely last chance at reaching the Churchill starting gate in May.
Starting with a field-leading 39 Derby points is Steve Asmussen’s Chip Honcho (3/1) who has run in all three Fair Grounds preps. A winner of the Gun Runner in late December, Chip Honcho came back to finish fourth and second in the Lecomte and Risen Star respectively.
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Any top five finish here could be enough to qualify for the Derby, which makes the early fractions vital to his performance. Typically showing speed, Chip Honcho now stretches out and will need a modest pace to hold onto the lead. With only Pavlovian and Blacksmith showing aggressiveness in their careers, Chip Honcho should be in control, setting himself up for a strong performance.
Finishing behind Chip Honcho in the Risen Star but besting him in the Lecomte is Cherie DeVaux’s Golden Tempo (7/2). Last time, this colt by Curlin simply had too much ground to make up. After breaking his maiden from dead last, Golden Tempo found himself trailing nine others in the Lecomte, with plenty left in the late stretch to rally. While added ground appears to be a plus, he may need some pressure on Chip Honcho to set up a favorable finish. Cherie DeVaux will be adding blinkers on Golden Tempo this time around, but told the Fair Grounds media relations team that it wasn’t solely to get him more involved early.
“We’re putting blinkers on him not to change his running style, but hopefully to get him in a better position so he doesn’t have to make up so much ground,” she explained. “He’s got a really nice turn of foot. But I really just want to get him focused, and a couple times when he’s made his runs, even when he won, he kind of idled before he kicked clear.”
Golden Tempo sits behind Chip Honcho with 35 points and needs a strong finish to get into the Churchill gate.
From post four, Kenny McPeek’s Universe (12/1) enters with 23 points. Despite coming up short in five points races, this colt has finished in the mix, including a last-out fourth in the Risen Star.
THE PICKS
1. #3 Chip Honcho (3-1) – Looks to control the early pace and take ’em as far as he can, if he can get the added ground.
2. #5 Golden Tempo (7-2) – Late-running sort likely needs some pace in front of him to unleash his kick to best effect and gets blinkers on, but has shown plenty of talent in just three starts.
3. #4 Universe (12-1) – McPeek trainee has run plenty of good races but has just a maiden score to his credit.
4. #7 Blacksmtih (6-1) – It’s not a Derby prep without Baffert, and this Baffert trainee just broke his maiden last out in his fifth career start.
Bested by Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo that day, Universe needs to improve, but should have no distance limitations as another late finisher. Despite keeping good company since the fall, this colt still needs a top effort to hit the board for points.
Three others enter with prep experience are Sunland Park winner Pavlovian (6/1), Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up Blacksmith (6/1), and Dallas Stewart’s Spirit of Royal (20/1), who came up empty in the Southwest.
Doug O’Neill’s California-bred Pavlovian may be a cut below even with his twenty point Sunland victory, but he could pressure Chip Honcho and change the complexion of this race. After pressing a 46 2/5 half mile in the Sunland, he should be stalking the lead along with Bob Baffert’s potentially aggressive Blacksmith. If either runner opts to be forward, it could set up for Golden Tempo or Universe to close.
While those three may need ideal circumstances to win, the final three have yet to run above maidens, with Chad Brown’s outside-breaking Emerging Market (6/1) entering off a debut win. Ignoring two Brad Cox runners and a Chad Brown colt isn’t wise in these races, but against more seasoned stakes horses, it would take improvement to finish in the top two for Derby points.
With this unusual mile and three-sixteenths distance – the same as the Preakness – the Louisiana Derby is a good measuring stick for these colts to see if they can eventually handle the classic distance. As the prep season winds down, this race may be the final tune up for those looking to qualify for the first jewel of the triple crown.
The Louisiana Derby starts at 6:42 PM EDT as race 12 on Fair Grounds’s Saturday card.
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