• CARRYOVERS: Pick 5, $13,687
• POST TIME: 12:20 P.M.
• NUMBER OF RACES: 10

RACE 1: 5-1-6-8

#5 Flee just missed last out against similar, and while that was going six furlongs rather than today’s mile, she did finished third in a higher-level maiden event going a mile, so it shouldn’t be beyond her scope; trainer Simone has a 22% strike rate first off the claim and legs up Paco Lopez… #1 Bulle Babe didn’t run badly last time out despite being widest of all most of the trip and makes her third start off the bench today… #6 Essential Girl rallied willingly in latest to finish best of the five from that contest in this one, and she galloped out ahead of the winner…

RACE 2: 2-4-7-3

We’d be surprised (but happy!) if you get the 8-1 morning line on #2 Road Cat, who showed good speed and willingness in his debut but simply had no answers for very impressive firster Seven’s Nitro; note the work just seven days after… #4 Lucky Siete was heavily bet in debut but showed no speed at all before rallying nicely in late stages to pick up third; he galloped out past everyone and shows a pair of works since… Low-profile Nazario barn attracts leading rider Lopez to #7 Brisk Alley; sire Pat On the Back’s first-timers are 4-for-12…

RACE 3: 8-1-5-7

#8 Normandy Hero might be sitting in the catbird seat in this rugged contest, possessing plenty of early speed and drawn outside the others with zip; the Ness-Lopez combo is deadly, and the cutback to 5 furlongs might just be ideal for a runner who typically cedes ground late going 5 1/2… #1 Where’s Ray has been keeping the right kind of company and running credibly race after race; stubborn try in latest when tiring late versus the talented Motion trainee Isivunguvungu… #5 Power Attack should get a lively pace to run at, and in his last on turf, he won a second-level allowance at Tampa, though that was only a middling group for the level…

RACE 4: 2-6-3-5

#2 Ada May makes her first start since November (trainer Simone is 2-for-4 off similar layoffs) and has had plenty of success at this six-furlong trip, winning three times and finishing in the money four others in nine total starts; might be speed of the speed if ready to run… We’ll draw a line through the latest for #6 Unicycle, who had a bad break when outmatched at 40-1 odds; two back she was a hard-trying second against similar… #3 Latest Edition makes her third start off the bench and first for the Hernandez barn…

RACE 5: 9-1-3-4

#9 Queen Rocket encountered a bunch of trouble when second last time out but still ran a good race; third off the bench today, and though Paco is elsewhere, Jorge Ruiz takes the mount and is a top turf rider… #1 Happy This Day didn’t make much impact last out at 27-1 but still tried hard; inclined to give her some excuses since her last win and think she’ll outrun big odds here… #3 Woodruff made the shift to turf nicely, winning as the favorite in latest, and Paco picks this miss…

RACE 6: 1-9-2-7

#1 Stone Cold Flex enters in terrific form — nine straight in the triple — and with enough speed and tactical versatility to work a good trip in a race a bit light on early types; could end up looking kinda like that last one… #9 Work Hard appeared to be headed in the wrong direction last out before regrouping to take third; well behind #1 in most recent local outing but made a bit of a middle move before emptying out, and three-back win versus $20k claimers was solid… #2 Guaponess may look for a similar trip (but different outcome) to latest when third against similar, but only seasonal win came when able to slow it to a crawl in the early stages, which probably won’t be the case here…

RACE 7: 4-6-2-10

#4 Afterneath isn’t good enough to win this… right? We’ll take a swing, though: on the stretch out from short sprints, she should be able to clear and control early and take them as far as she can; there’s enough distance in the pedigree to make this not beyond her scope, and her lone prior two-turn turf try wasn’t materially different from her sprint form at the time… #6 Stellar Mars didn’t miss by much in latest versus similar, just falling short behind Getaway Palace, who led throughout at 3-5… #2 Tiki Bar stuck with it last out and is a few races removed from a win versus $16,000 claimers…

RACE 8: 1-3-6-2

#1 Double Edge Sword had a useful return to action last out when fighting on for second despite a wide journey throughout, and the show horse returned to win next out; veteran had a productive winter and looks to get it going again… If the pace heats up, #3 Curlins Cruzin will be running into it, though he gets a class test as he tries to move up from beaten claimers… #6 Reverend Moon’s form has been headed in the wrong direction lately, but he has better to run back to…

RACE 9: 4-5-6-2

#4 Pride’s Prince could be speed of the speed but doesn’t need the front, so if others outbreak him, he can switch tactics; kept better company at Oaklawn over the winter and has Lopez in the irons again… If the pace heats up, and there are some horses with early foot here, the beneficiary could be #5 Change My World, who may end up the one offering value, too; the Mary Eppler trainee will likely look for a stalk-and-pounce trip here and has been butting heads with tough rivals of late, including recent Colonial Downs track-record setter Suremeanttoobe, De Francis Dash show horse Wickeddivine, and Paco the Taco Man, who fashioned a four-race win streak… #6 Temecula enters in good form…

RACE 10: 5-1-7-2

In her last two on the main track, #5 Lilliput has shown speed and faltered in one and shown no speed before rallying nicely in the other; made this one she gets it just right? #1 Eimear has been a no-hoper against much better in her last two (24-1 and 67-1), so she ought to appreciate the class relief today… #7 Missy’s Map gets blinkers on two races after a not-terrible try against similar…