Triple Crown: Blue Grass Stakes picks and analysis

100 Kentucky Derby points on the line

Featured image of Great White by Ashleigh Schlitt.

This year’s 100-point Blue Grass Stakes holds a field of eight as longshot Ocelli will opt for the Wood Memorial. The Blue Grass has been a strong prep for Derby runners with many placing well at Churchill, even if it hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Street Sense in 2007.

With the injury to top Derby hopeful Paladin for Chad Brown, this group is now headlined by Brad Cox’s Tampa Derby runner-up Further Ado (8/5) and Todd Pletcher’s Rebel winner Class President (3/1). Cherie DeVaux also enters the up-and-coming Reagan’s Honor (5/2) in what should be a competitive last prep for this group looking to qualify and run well in the Run for the Roses. 

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Entering the Tampa Derby as the clear favorite, Further Ado was unable to hold off The Puma in the stretch. After The Puma came back with a strong performance in the Florida Derby, Further Ado’s runner-up finish at Tampa appeared more excusable, as it was his first try as a three-year-old.

Nabbing the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at two, this colt has amassed 35 points and may simply need a top four finish here to get into the Derby gate. His last three tries have come at a mile and one sixteenth, with his most dominant win being three back in a maiden over this track. With an eye-popping 20-length win in his lone race at Keeneland, Further Ado may have a leg up on the others here with his clear affinity for this surface. 

“He’s doing very well and I feel like he’s moved forward since the Tampa Bay Derby,” Cox told Keeneland track publicity. “He obviously likes Keeneland and we’re looking forward to giving him an opportunity in a Grade 1 on Saturday.”

His talent is obvious, and he starts here with strong winning chances.

THE PICKS

1. #4 Reagan’s Honor (5-2) Winner of two straight seeks a hat trick and to win one for the Gipper.

2. #6 Further Ado (8-5) Couldn’t hold off The Puma late in the Tampa Bay Derby, but that runner came back to run well in the Florida Derby.

3. #2 Class President (7-2)Rebel winner stayed on through fast fractions that day and then held off Silent Tactic in a long battle.

4. #3 Great White (15-1)Battaglia winner’s effort flattered when Fulleffort came back to take the Jeff Ruby.

Todd Pletcher’s Class President captured Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes last time at 8/1 after showing clear improvement from his first two tries. Showing no issues with extra distance there from his seven-furlong Swale the race prior, he was able to hold off the oncoming Silent Tactic in the stretch. Pletcher holds the record with four Blue Grass wins and has been gearing Class President up for more two-turn tries. Already with 50 Derby points, this race is merely a tune-up for the Pletcher trainee who should be stalking the lead once again and can prove that he will be one to be reckoned with in a month.

With plenty of stalking types in this field, Reagan’s Honor is the most likely to aggressively pursue the lead from the break. A gate-to-wire winner in two straight, this DeVaux colt has had plenty left in the tank in back to back mile and one-sixteenth tries at Fair Grounds. Despite the step up in class from allowance company, his comfortable six-length victory last time and tactical advantage here could put him in the mix even if he runs into more experienced colts or faces tougher fractions early. A top two finish is necessary for Reagan’s Honor to qualify for Kentucky.

John Ennis enters Turfway’s John Battaglia winner Great White (15/1) from post three. With twenty points from that try, this colt needs another top performance after holding off the eventual Jeff Ruby winner Fulleffort in the Battaglia. While he does start with good stakes experience and a strong win, a repeat trip sitting off a slower pace in the Battaglia is unlikely here, and he would need to improve to have winning chances. 

The remaining longshots would need clear improvement to finish in the top two for Derby points. Joe Sharp’s Creole Chrome (8/1) has won three of four at Fair Grounds and could factor into the first half if he repeats his last race. Ottinho (20/1) was also entered in the Wood Memorial, with Chad Brown scratching him there to run in this race. Outside of Class President, all of these runners are looking for points here as the Derby prep season comes to a close.  

The Blue Grass has a post time of 6:22 PM EST as the eleventh race on Keeneland’s Saturday card. 

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Triple Crown: Blue Grass Stakes picks and analysis

Triple Crown: Blue Grass Stakes picks and

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