Triple Crown: Arkansas Derby picks and analysis
100 Kentucky Derby points on the line
Joseph Aiello
March 27, 2026
On an 11-year drought since producing a Kentucky Derby winner, the Arkansas Derby still remains a top prep for three-year-olds with 100 points to the winner and 200 to the top five. With a field of nine this year, a speedy bunch will look to hold off the 3/2 morning line favorite Renegade from the Pletcher barn as Mark Casse’s 5/2 Silent Tactic also returns from a second-place finish in the Rebel last time out.
With three runners who prefer the lead in the inside-breaking Redland Rebels (15/1), Bob Baffert’s outside-breaking Litmus Test (5/1), and Chad Summers’ Napoleon Solo (6/1), the early fractions could heat up.
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Patrick Biancone double-entered Redland Rebels in the Florida Derby following a fourth in the Tampa Derby three weeks ago, but has him pointed here. Showing speed in all four of his tries, Redland Rebels set an honest pace at Tampa only to fade late. Similarly, Litmus Test has done much of his running as either the immediate leader or by stalking in his six starts, recently succumbing to third in the Rebel after setting the pace.
While Litmus Test may sit off the leaders here, his best efforts have been under aggressive rides much like Napoleon Solo’s standout win in the Champagne in October. Setting a blistering 44 ⅕ half mile in the Champagne, Napoleon Solo allowed others to pave the way in the Fountain of Youth, never fully involving himself in the race and fading to fifth. If the preferences of these three runners continue, the top two choices may have the perfect set up for a late run.
The late-running Silent Tactic was seventh early in the Rebel and nearly reeled in the winner in the stretch. Capturing Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes with a similar late run, Silent Tactic already enters with 50 Derby points, which should be enough to get him into the gate. Still, this should be the perfect tune-up for the Casse trainee, and the trainer was encouraged by the Rebel effort and sees improvement in adding a bit more ground this time.
“I thought Cristian gave him a good trip,” Casse said after the Rebel. “He was a little keener, which wasn’t surprising to me because he’s trained keener. He ended up settling for Cristian, but it took a little bit of doing. He was wanting to go. I think if you look at his numbers, especially if you look Rags and Thoro-Graphs and everything, he is definitely improving. Even if you watch after the race, the gallop out was good and strong. The more ground, the better.”
THE PICKS
1. #6 Renegade (3-2) – Easy winner of the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay and could get similar setup in this spot.
2. #2 Silent Tactic (5-2) – A nose away from being 2-for-2 in local Derby preps and looks to make some noise in this spot.
3. #3 Blackout Time (6-1) – Made a bit of a middle move before emptying out in the Rebel; second-place finish behind Ted Noffey says there’s plenty of talent here.
4. #9 Litmus Test (5-1) – Five-time Arkansas Derby winner Bob Baffert looks for yet another win in this event with a runner who needs to bounce back after fading badly in the Rebel.
Experience over the Oaklawn track should be a plus for Silent Tactic, but he faces a tougher foe this time in Renegade, who should employ a similar late kick. Foiled by Paladin in the Remsen in December, Renegade took his chances in Tampa’s Sam F. Davis, starting as the odds-on favorite. With a sluggish start which has become Renegade’s norm, he took command in the stretch and easily drew clear of his opponents. A $975,000 yearling, this colt by Into Mischief carries high expectations into a race which should suit his running style. Renegade begins here with 25 Derby points, still needing a top three finish to reach Churchill.
One that has yet to live up to expectations is Kenneth McPeek’s Blackout Time (6/1). This colt looked primed for a strong three-year-old season after finishing second to Eclipse champion ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity in October, but he faded in the Rebel in his first start this year. His best efforts have come on the front end, which could be crowded early, and he hasn’t taken a clear step forward from his maiden win. Blackout Time still has a leg up on the trio of 20/1 morning line entries who have not distinguished themselves as of yet but needs to run his best to factor in. With what may be a mad dash to the lead, all of these colts will have a tough time holding off the late charges from Silent Tactic and Renegade as they compete for valuable Derby points.
The Arkansas Derby is race thirteen on Oaklawn’s Saturday card with a 7:48 PM EDT post time.
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