Triple Crown: Jeff Ruby Steaks picks and analysis
100 Kentucky Derby points on the line
Joseph Aiello
March 21, 2026
The Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks is the final Turfway Kentucky Derby prep, offering 100 points to the winner and 200 overall to the top five. With a field of 12, the Jeff Ruby has improved as a prep in recent years, setting up strong Derby performances from last year’s winner Final Gambit and 2023 winner Two Phil’s.
Rich Strike, of course, captured a shocking Kentucky Derby in 2022 after a third in the Ruby, and Animal Kingdom won this event in 2011 (when it was known as the Spiral) prior to scoring in Louisville. With a pair of Brendan Walsh and Brad Cox entries among others here, this group looks to keep the strong Turfway – Churchill performances going as they compete for valuable points.
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Entering from the local prep, the Battaglia Memorial, are Fulleffort (7/2), Baytown Dreamer (30/1), Two Out Hero (8/1), and Maximus Prime (20/1). These runners start with varying expectations.
Brad Cox’s Fulleffort comes off second-place finishes in the Battaglia and in the prior local prep, the Leonatus. Starting on turf, Fulleffort was able to make the switch to Turfway’s artificial surface with ease, first finishing second in the Leonatus Stakes two months ago. Similar to Cox’s Jeff Ruby winner Final Gambit last year, Fulleffort employs a deep closing style and could use some early pace to aim at. With 10 Derby points already, another second-place finish here would likely give him enough to qualify for Churchill, as this colt appears to have the best chance of the returnees.
Breaking as the 5/2 morning line favorite is Michael McCarthy’s Stark Contrast. Like many here, this colt will make the surface change from grass after a strong win in the Eddie Logan at Santa Anita. Finishing in second as a 58/1 longshot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Stark Contrast came off the bench to continue his form with a stalking trip last time out. Despite his turf experience, this colt did debut on dirt at Del Mar, which McCarthy sees as enough to make the switch, albeit to Tapeta.
“He kind of showed his hand early in Del Mar, he put in a couple of good works in the morning,” McCarthy said in a release. “He ran just well enough on the dirt and from the gate to go ahead and warrant a start on the dirt. Things didn’t work out. In his pedigree, Caravaggio gives him a little bit of speed and Quality Road gives him the stamina.”
THE PICKS
1. #2 Fulleffort (7-2) – Late-running Cox trainee has been second in both stakes tries and both synthetic outings, hopes for a pace to materialize here.
2. #11 Stark Contrast (5-2) – Turf form is impeccable, and even the lone dirt outing might be better than it looks, coming behind Baffert-trained Buetane.
3. #6 Medici (6-1) – Definitely headed in the right direction on the green and competitive if he carries that form to the synthetic.
4. #12 Stop the Car (20-1) – First two starts were solid before he faded from the scene in the LeComte. Bounceback needed today.
Breaking from post eleven, Stark Contrast should be in the first grouping and has some of the sharpest speed figures here, which put him in the mix.
From post six is Richard Mandella’s Medici (6/1), by Into Mischief. After a slow start to his career, he broke his maiden in his fifth try, then tried the Pasadena Stakes at Santa Anita last month. Medici has shown improvement in speed figures and nearly went gate-to-wire last time. He should factor into the pace and will need to adjust to added distance here.
Brendan Walsh’s Black Hornet (12/1) joins Stark Contrast as the only runners who start off a last-out stakes win. Recently nabbing the Black Gold Stakes at Fair Grounds on the turf, this colt by Essential Quality has won his last, closing from well back two race back and stalking the pace last out. In a race which could run quicker, his trip versatility should be beneficial.
The “other” Cox entry Argos (6/1) can’t be ignored due to the connections, despite recent struggles. With all five of his prior tries on turf, there appear to be sharper turf colts who carry their form over to the artificial course.
The outside-breaking Stop the Car (20/1) disappointed last out in stepping up into the Grade 3 Lecomte, but won an allowance impressively at Churchill in the race prior. As one of the few who have shown dirt form, a return to his best puts him ahead of Chaos Agent (10/1) and Brave Force (30/1), who enter from maiden wins. Likely sitting mid pack, this Brendan Walsh colt could have a leg up with his running style.
In a field with turf experience and plenty who prefer stalking trips, this race could end up similar to last year’s where unexpected late finishers find their way into the money. A top two finish is all it will take for these runners to qualify for the Derby, with a few only needing to hit the board for a chance at Churchill in May.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks is the twelfth race on the Saturday Turfway card with a post time of 6:25 PM EDT.
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