Triple Crown: Tampa Bay Derby picks and analysis
50 Kentucky Derby points on the line
Joseph Aiello
March 6, 2026
The Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby features a nine horse field with 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner. While the Tampa circuit hasn’t been the best for prepping Derby winners of late, plenty of talented runners from this race have gone on to have success. This year’s field carries entries from some of the top trainers in the country, including Todd Pletcher, Brad Cox, and Chad Brown.
From a class perspective, Further Ado is the headliner, with a ten point November win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill. Although he hasn’t raced since, this Brad Cox colt has been sharp in his last two, breaking his maiden at Keeneland the race prior by a whopping 20 lengths.
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Cox has maintained that his colt is still sharp despite the layoff, telling Tampa Bay Downs publicity “His works have been phenomenal. He’s really gotten through this track well. He’s given us a lot of confidence. He looks really good since he arrived. He really put on weight and physically filled out a good bit since last fall.”
With both wins at a mile and one-sixteenth, the same as this event, distance isn’t an issue for this Gun Runner colt, who currently looks to be a slight cut above the others. Further Ado should be stalking the leaders and begins his three-year-old campaign as the morning line favorite at 9/5.
The lone returning entry from the Sam F. Davis is Gustavo Delgado trainee The Puma (8/1). Picking up three points with a distant third there, he has faded in both of his stretch runs and may be distance limited at this level. Having familiarity with the Tampa track is always a plus, as this one should be coming from mid pack and would benefit from quicker fractions.
Two that have shown speed in three tries apiece are Roger that Dana (15/1) and Redland Rebels (10/1). Both have run exclusively at Gulfstream, with Redland Rebels showing his best on grass. While the surface adjustment is always an unknown variable, this gelding could be in control from the jump with the speed to give this field problems. After setting a sharp 46.52 half mile in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes, Redland Rebels was simply worn down in the stretch to lose by a neck. If he is able to set modest fractions and hold off Roger that Dana, this Biancone trainee will be one to watch.
THE PICKS
1. #6 Further Ado (9-5) – Owns class edge after closing ’25 with dominant wins.
2. #9 Canaletto (5-2) – Bred to be any kind and looked the part in 8-length debut score.
3. #1 Redland Rebels (10-1) – Has shown copious early speed on turf, now switches back to the main track after near-miss second in the Kitten’s Joy.
4. #2 Talkin (15-1) – Connections think an improved effort is in the offing after troubled trips in prior races and disastrous Remsen outing.
Recently scratching out of the Fountain of Youth for Danny Gargan, Talkin (15/1) enters here following tries in the Grade 1 Champagne and Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct. Picking up five points with a second in the Champagne, Talkin looked primed for a strong Remsen and went off at 4-1 only to drop to a distant ninth by eighteen lengths. His class puts him in the mix here, but an improvement in form is necessary to contend. Getting a strong closer in Joel Rosario to take the mount could lead to a step forward as Talkin looks to show his full potential in this one.
A pair of dangerous runners enter from maiden debuts in Todd Pletcher’s Powershift (7/2) and Chad Brown’s Canaletto (5/2). Powershift started over this track, finishing second as the post time favorite. With a yearling price-tag of $500,000, this colt by Constitution carries high hopes and gets hall of famer John Velazquez in the irons here. This may be a big ask in just his second try, with more polished competition here and others with similar upside.
Canaletto, on the other hand, was a dominant eight length winner at first asking at Gulfstream. Going a mile in that try, this outside-breaking colt by Into Mischief broke sharply and took over by the three-quarter pole. With a yearling price double that of Powershift, Canaletto may have the highest expectations of the bunch, as Brown looks to add another to his Derby lineup. The early pace could determine if this second timer is able to match the more seasoned Further Ado, as he appears to be his primary competition.
Starting with differing levels of success and experience, these runners have the opportunity to qualify for the Run for the Roses with a strong showing. With the Derby two months out, this may not be their final prep, but could prove to be the most valuable as their connections see how they compare to the best in their division.
The Tampa Bay Derby starts at 5:35 PM EST as the eleventh race on Tampa Bay Downs Saturday card.
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