Triple Crown: San Felipe Stakes picks and analysis * The Racing Biz

Triple Crown: San Felipe Stakes picks and analysis

50 Kentucky Derby points on the line

Joseph Aiello
March 6, 2026

Run at a mile and one sixteenth on Santa Anita’s dirt course, the Grade 2 San Felipe offers 105 Kentucky Derby points to the top five finishers with 50 awarded to the winner. Featuring a modest field of seven, this year’s San Felipe is headlined (as is often the case) by trainer Bob Baffert.

Saddling a pair of entries, Baffert’s best hope, Brant, leaves from the four-hole as the morning line even-money favorite off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in late October. Picking up nine Derby points in that try, Brant tired after setting the early pace at this same distance and will likely face pace pressure in this spot. In what will be just his fourth start, this $3 million colt by Gun Runner still has plenty of racing to do to recoup his purchase price for Zedan Racing, with his first step toward Kentucky starting here against a mostly unproven group.

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Baffert also will saddle Potente (9-2), an Into Mischief colt who broke his maiden at first asking in late January, his only start to date. He did so in front-running style going six furlongs, so he seems a logical runner to inject some speed into this two-turn event; the question is, with two horses with plentiful early speed, will Baffert look to have one of them try to rate?

Potente fetched $2.4 million as a yearling. By Into Mischief, Potente’s price tag is no surprise, as his sire has led North America in progeny earnings each of the last seven years.

The Baffert duo of Brant and Potente recently breezed over the Santa Anita track, going five and four furlongs respectively at the start of the month. Both posted sharp works.

Entering as the clear top challenger to Brant is the 2/1 So Happy from the Mark Glatt barn. A convincing winner of the Grade 2 San Vicente over this track, So Happy stalked a blistering 43.56 half-mile to pass the tiring leader in the stretch while holding off Bob Baffert’s Buetane. Going just seven furlongs in that one, So Happy will have to best two other Baffert trainees here while stretching out another furlong and a half. He keeps Hall of Famer Mike Smith in the irons, who has guided him in both of his career starts thus far. Following a recent forty-six and four-fifths half-mile work, Smith raved to Santa Anita press, calling the breeze “Dynamite.”

“He’s never been a flashy work horse in the morning, a bit lazy actually,” Smith added, “but this was one of his best works if not the best. He was just cruising. It was all him.”

THE PICKS

1. #6 So Happy (2-1) – Got a perfect setup to win the San Vicente and might see something similar in this contest..

2. #4 Brant (1-1) – $3 million purchase was game in finishing third in the BC Juvenile but may face heat again in return from the bench.

3. #5 Potente (9-2) – Obviously there’s some talent here, but at this point, he’s mostly a question mark.

4. #3 Secured Freedom (8-1) – Rallied from seventh to finish third in the Lewis while never a threat to the top pair; likely needs some things to happen up front to have a shot at the top spot.

When asked if the added distance would be an issue, Smith remained bullish.

“You never know until they do it. But he’s given me every indication in his sprint races that he would do it. I never felt like I was on fumes at the end.”

With a spotless record and clear upside following the visually impressive San Vicente, So Happy is clearly one to be reckoned with and poses a real threat to Brant as he takes another step forward here.

The last of the runners under 10/1 is the 8/1 Secured Freedom from the Tim Yakteen barn. One-for-three in his career, this colt finished third behind another Bob Baffert-trained Into Mischief colt, Plutarch, in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis over this track a month ago. Getting a wide trip in that seven-horse field, he rallied late and still looked for more ground to close into. He could benefit from a potential pace collapse if the leaders go too quickly, as he has shown a late running style. With just six points from the Robert B. Lewis, Secured Freedom will likely need a strong finish to stay on the Derby trail but could be one that prefers more distance while others may struggle with the mile and one-sixteenth.

Rounding out the field are a pair from the Dan Blacker barn and the outside-breaking longshot Robusta trained by Doug O’Neill. Both Blacker colts were bred in California, with the 12/1 Start the Ride flashing some potential in the California Chrome Cal Cup Derby in mid-January. Winning that one at this distance, Start the Ride could use some speed to aim at and likely needs to take a clear step forward to finish with the top contenders. Blacker has been encouraged by his work in the mornings and remains confident that more distance is better for this colt by Upstart.

“He’s ready. He’s doing awesome,” Blacker told Santa Anita press of Start the Ride. “It’s obviously a big step up, but his works have been great. You wouldn’t know he was a Cal-bred watching him train. One thing I know is distance isn’t going to be a problem. The longer the races are, the better he’s going to be. It’s just a question if he’s good enough.”

The inside-breaking Flashy Fritz could be keen early but enters off the claim – he was second in a $25,000 claimer — and takes a major step up in class. Robusta is classier, recently competing in the Robert B. Lewis, but disappointed in that try and enters with outside chances here. He will wear blinkers for the first time.

A win here all but guarantees a trip to Kentucky in May, with the Baffert duo looking to control this race early and hold off the talented So Happy. While wins look unlikely from the others, a contested early pace could set up for a longshot to run their best as many of these runners stretch out in distance.

The Grade 2 San Felipe goes off at 6:30 PM EST as the eighth race on Santa Anita’s Saturday card.

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Joseph Aiello

Joseph Aiello, III, a graduate of Colgate University, is a lifelong racing fan and frequent Saratoga visitor, where he avidly hones his handicapping skills.

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