Triple Crown: Rebel Stakes picks and analysis
50 Kentucky Derby points on the line
Joseph Aiello
February 28, 2026
The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes has failed to produce a Kentucky Derby winner in over a decade, with the last to complete the double being 2015’s American Pharoah. Still this 50-point prep can still serve as a stepping stone for this year’s ten entrants who are just beginning to scratch the surface of their potential.
Headlined by Kenny McPeek’s 8/5 morning-line favorite Blackout Time, the field remains largely unproven despite featuring runners from several top barns. McPeek also enters Arkansas-bred Honey’s to Blame breaking to Blackout Time’s outside, while Steve Asmussen and Mark Casse saddle pairs that will break side by side. With single entries from Brad Cox, Todd Pletcher, and Saffie Joseph, it may be Bob Baffert’s 7/2 Litmus Test who poses the biggest threat.
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Litmus Test arrives with Flavien Prat aboard and could control the race from the outset. Following a close fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Ted Noffey, he captured the Los Alamitos Futurity at this same mile-and-a-sixteenth distance. With Baffert’s strong history in Oaklawn preps, this colt shapes up as a major contender in a promising field.
Blackout Time also faced Ted Noffey earlier in his career, finishing second to him (and ahead of Litmus Test) in the Breeders’ Futurity. Despite a longer layoff and only one win from three starts, he enters as the favorite. Both top choices make their seasonal debuts and retain significant upside entering their three-year-old campaigns.
The more accomplished of Mark Casse’s entries is Silent Tactic (9/2), who breaks from post seven after an impressive victory in Oaklawn’s Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. Breaking near the rear of a 12-horse field, he rallied from well off the pace, moving within striking distance past the half-mile pole before passing tiring rivals to win by three and a quarter lengths despite modest fractions.
Trainer Mark Casse compared the effort favorably to that of his 2025 Arkansas Derby winner, Sandman.
“The impressive thing about Silent Tactic is he ran down an average pace,” Casse told Oaklawn’s press office.
With a runner-up finish in the Smarty Jones prior to that effort, Silent Tactic already owns 25 Derby points and needs only a placing to secure qualification for Churchill Downs. A heated pace could further enhance his late-running style if he builds on his latest performance.
THE PICKS
1. #2 Litmus Test (7-2) – Baffert trainee arrives off a win and wasn’t beaten much by Ted Noffey.
2. #7 Silent Tactic (9-2) – Rallied nicely to win the Southwest, seeks the local double heading into the Arkansas Derby.
3. #4 Blackout Time (8-5) – Morning line fave has kept right company, though he’s just 1-for-3.
4. #8 Rancho Santa Fe (12-1) – Plenty of improvement still available for this Tapit colt, who won his first two starts but has been fourth and fifth in prior stakes tries.
Todd Pletcher’s Class President (10/1) enters off two starts at Gulfstream Park, including a debut win and a runner-up finish in the Swale Stakes. Sitting just off the pace in both outings, he finished second behind Fountain of Youth contender Solitude Dude in the Swale at seven furlongs after encountering quicker fractions. Though he won his debut at a mile, the step up in class and distance presents a new challenge.
Longshots Rancho Santa Fe and Soldier N Diplomat both exit the Southwest Stakes with five and thirteen Derby points, respectively. While neither matched Silent Tactic that day, their connections suggest room for improvement.
Rancho Santa Fe (12/1), trained by Brad Cox, finished fourth in the Southwest after racing more forwardly than in the Smarty Jones. The Tapit colt showed progression in that effort and still has upside entering just his fifth start. With Irad Ortiz aboard, his best chance may come from settling off the pace and hoping for stronger early fractions.
Soldier N Diplomat, trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Jose Ortiz, projects to sit in a midpack stalking role. Consistent if unspectacular in five starts, he finished ahead of Rancho Santa Fe in the Southwest. Ortiz was encouraged by the effort, telling Oaklawn’s media office that his colt “ran big.”
Casse’s other entrant, Strategic Risk (12/1), disappointed in the Southwest after a poor start but previously captured the Smarty Jones Stakes over this track. A cleaner break could allow him to factor early, though he appears slightly below the top contenders on form.
In a well-balanced field with developing three-year-olds, a standout performance here could position any of these runners for bigger goals later this spring as the road to the Kentucky Derby continues.
The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes is scheduled for 6:23 p.m. EST as the eleventh race on Oaklawn’s Sunday card.
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