Experts’ Breeders’ Cup Saturday picks

Saturday is championship day with nine Breeders’ Cup races, including the Classic. Three Maryland-breds are among the hopefuls, with one, Seismic Beauty, the 9-5 favorite in the Distaff.

Following a big Friday of baby races, Saturday brings the main event, and we asked our experts for their picks.

Here’s what they came up with:

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

Sweet Azteca, 7-for-9 in her career, is the 2-1 morning line favorite, but our ‘cappers believe the correct answer is #8 Hope Road (4-1), impressive winner of the G1 Ballerina last out. Four of them have her on top, and a fifth has her second… The field includes Maryland-bred #2 Splendora (8-1), a winner of two straight, and 2023 Charles Town Oaks winner #3 Vahva (12-1)…

Ted BlackDerby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloGary QuillEric RubinNick Hahn
1st8. Hope Road10. Praying6. Sweet Azteca8. Hope Road8. Hope Road8. Hope Road
2nd3. Vahva1. Zeitlos8. Hope Road9. Richi1. Zeitlos6. Sweet Azteca
3rd2. Splendora3. Vahva4. Tamara2. Splendora10. Praying2. Splendora

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

#1 Motorious gets the nod as the 7-2 morning line favorite, but our ‘cappers aren’t having any of it. The six of them land on four different horses on top, and none of ’em picks Motorious, who was fifth in this race a year ago… Two horses — #3 Arizona Blaze (5-1), a Group 1 winner in Ireland, and #6 Governor Sam (15-1), third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint — earn two top choices here, while #7 She’s Quality (20-1), multiple group placed in Europe, and #10 Shisospicy (6-1), 4-for-5 on the turf, get one each…

Ted BlackDerby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloGary QuillEric RubinNick Hahn
1st3. Arizona Blaze6. Governor Sam10. Shisospicy7. She’s Quality6. Governor Sam3. Arizona Blaze
2nd1. Motorious8. Ag Bullet8. Ag Bullet1. Motorious1. Motorious8. Ag Bullet
3rd11. Bucanero Fuerte10. Shisospicy1. Motorious3. Arizona Blaze2. Reef Runner10. Shisospicy

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

#10 Bentornato (5-2), second in this race a year ago, is the morning line favorite but has made just one start since that effort, and our ‘cappers are inclined to look elsewhere. In fact, they land on six different horses on top, including one who lands on defending champ #12 Straight No Chaser (8-1), making his second start since early April… The race includes some familiar faces for Mid-Atlantic racing folks: this year’s Charles Town Classic winner #2 Banishing (15-1); #4 Patriot Spirit (30-1), winner of the Reigh Count at Colonial Downs this summer; and the last two winners of the Grade 2 Gallant Bob at Parx in Bentornato (2024) and 2025 champ #13 Mad House (30-1)…

Ted BlackDerby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloGary QuillEric RubinNick Hahn
1st12. Straight No Chaser4. Patriot Spirit2. Banishing11. Mullikin1. Kopion7. Imagination
2nd10. Bentornato14. Whatchatalkinabout10. Bentornato3. Lovesick Blues11. Mullikin1. Kopion
3rd1. Kopion13. Mad House1. Kopion1. Kopion9. American Stage4. Patriot Spirit

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

Maryland-bred #8 Seismic Beauty (8-5) is the morning line fave and has won three straight and four of seven overall, but most of our ‘cappers are looking elsewhere… Four of ’em land on #12 Dorth Vader (5-1), winner of the G1 Ogden Phipps earlier this year, and another picks 2024 G2 Black-Eyed Susan winner #10 Gun Song (30-1)… Also here: #3 Clicquot (10-1), winner of the G1 Cotillion; #9 Majestic Oops (30-1), winner of the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth in June; Cathryn Sophia winner #11 Dry Powder (20-1), who finished second in the Cotillion; and #13 Regaled (30-1), dominant winner of the G3 Delaware Handicap last out…

Ted BlackDerby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloGary QuillEric RubinNick Hahn
1st8. Seismic Beauty10. Gun Song12. Dorth Vader12. Dorth Vader12. Dorth Vader12. Dorth Vader
2nd12. Dorth Vader8. Seismic Beauty8. Seismic Beauty1. Nitrogen4. Scylla8. Seismic Beauty
3rd7. Gin Gin13. Regaled2. Sarawak Rim5. Scottish Lassie8. Seismic Beauty3. Clicquot

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

The turf races generally run through the European horses, and this one appears no different… Look for defending champ #1 Rebel’s Romance (5-2) and #8 Minnie Hauk (8-5), the 3-year-old filly who was second by a head in the Group 1 L’Arc de Triomphe against older males, to consume most of the betting public’s attention…

Ted BlackDerby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloGary QuillEric RubinNick Hahn
1st1. Rebel’s Romance14. Ethical Diamond1. Rebel’s Romance8. Minnie Hauk6. Wimbledon Hawkeye9. Gold Phoenix
2nd8. Minnie Hauk1. Rebel’s Romance8. Minnie Hauk3. Amiloc10. El Cordobes1. Rebel’s Romance
3rd2. Goliath5. Rebel Red10. El Cordobes1. Rebel’s Romance8. Minnie Hauk10. El Cordobes

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

The scratch of morning line favorite Sovereignty opens this race up quite a bit, and our ‘cappers respond accordingly: by picking five different horses on top… #5 Forever Young (6-1), the Japanese-bred who was third in this race a year ago a few months after a near-miss third in the Kentucky Derby, is the lone runner to have two ‘cappers pick him on top… Maryland-bred #8 Mindframe (10-1) carries Midlantic hopes… The race also includes defending champ #7 Sierra Leone (8-1) and a pair we’ve seen in the Mid-Atlantic in this year’s Pennsylvania Derby winner #2 Baeza (15-1) and Preakness and Haskell champ #9 Journalism (10-1)…

Ted BlackDerby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloGary QuillEric RubinNick Hahn
1st7. Sierra Leone5. Forever Young1. Fierceness8. Mindframe2. Baeza5. Forever Young
2nd8. Mindframe1. Fierceness5. Forever Young5. Forever Young5. Forever Young10. Antiquarian
3rd1. Fierceness8. Mindframe7. Sierra Leone1. Fierceness7. Sierra Leone1. Fierceness

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

Back to the turf for the Mile and a race in which last year’s runner-up #7 Johannes (8-1) and show horse #2 Notable Speech (5-2) return, with the latter the morning line favorite… Trainer Graham Motion’s South African connection provides him #1 One Stripe (30-1), whose North American bow was a bland fifth-place finish in the G1 Woodbine Mile… #5 Program Trading (10-1), beaten favorite in the ’23 Grade 3 Virginia Derby, will carry Flavien Prat for trainer Chad Brown…

Ted BlackDerby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloGary QuillEric RubinNick Hahn
1st2. Notable Speech2. Notable Speech2. Notable Speech1. One Stripe4. The Lion In Winter3. Sahlan
2nd7. Johannes13. Qirat7. Johannes13. Qirat10. Jonquil8. Formidable Man
3rd4. The Lion In Winter7. Johannes10. Jonquil2. Notable Speech2. Notable Speech5. Program Trading

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

Defending champ #6 Full Serrano (7-2) looks for a repeat, but he’ll have to tackle the talented #3 Nysos (8-5), the Bob Baffert trainee whose lone defeat, by a neck, came to Mindframe in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs off a 15-month layoff… #9 Touch of Destiny (20-1) is an intriguing longshot, having run up six facile wins in Uruguay to start his career…

Ted BlackDerby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloGary QuillEric RubinNick Hahn
1st6. Full Serrano7. Citizen Bull9. Touch of Destiny3. Nysos2. Goal Oriented6. Full Serrano
2nd9. Touch of Destiny1. Will Take It6. Full Serrano10. White Abarrio8. Chancer McPatrick4. Mystik Dan
3rd10. White Abarrio4. Mystik Dan3. Nysos6. Full Serrano10. White Abarrio3. Nysos

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF

A contentious group of distaffers close the card in a race that’s a bit of a puzzle: most of these intersperse good and bad outings… #5 Gezora (7-2) gets the nod as morning line favorite, but our ‘cappers look elsewhere, with three of them landing on #9 Cinderella’s Dream (9-2), a fast-closing second in this race a year ago, and two others on #6 Diamond Rain (6-1), a group winner at Newcastle two back…

Ted BlackDerby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloGary QuillEric RubinNick Hahn
1st9. Cinderella’s Dream1. Mission of Joy6. Diamond Rain9. Cinderella’s Dream9. Cinderella’s Dream6. Diamond Rain
2nd5. Gezora7. Be Your Best13. She Feels Pretty14. See The Fire6. Diamond Rain13. She Feels Pretty
3rd13. She Feels Pretty14. See The Fire9. Cinderella’s Dream12. Bellezza14. See The Fire5. Gezora

OUR HANDICAPPERS ARE:

  • Gary Quill, co-host of Better Betting podcast and former The Racing Biz Maryland handicapper
  • Derby Bill Watson, legendary former Colonial Downs on-air analylyst
  • Joseph Aiello handicaps Saratoga for The Racing Biz.
  • Ted Black is the Charles Town correspondent for The Racing Biz.
  • Eric Rubin hosts the Better Betting podcast.
  • Nick Hahn is the author of the eponymous Nick’s Picks handicapping Colonial Downs for The Racing Biz.

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