Experts’ Breeders’ Cup Saturday picks
Saturday is championship day with nine Breeders’ Cup races, including the Classic. Three Maryland-breds are among the hopefuls, with one, Seismic Beauty, the 9-5 favorite in the Distaff.
Following a big Friday of baby races, Saturday brings the main event, and we asked our experts for their picks.
Here’s what they came up with:
BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
Sweet Azteca, 7-for-9 in her career, is the 2-1 morning line favorite, but our ‘cappers believe the correct answer is #8 Hope Road (4-1), impressive winner of the G1 Ballerina last out. Four of them have her on top, and a fifth has her second… The field includes Maryland-bred #2 Splendora (8-1), a winner of two straight, and 2023 Charles Town Oaks winner #3 Vahva (12-1)…
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Joseph Aiello | Gary Quill | Eric Rubin | Nick Hahn | |
| 1st | 8. Hope Road | 10. Praying | 6. Sweet Azteca | 8. Hope Road | 8. Hope Road | 8. Hope Road |
| 2nd | 3. Vahva | 1. Zeitlos | 8. Hope Road | 9. Richi | 1. Zeitlos | 6. Sweet Azteca |
| 3rd | 2. Splendora | 3. Vahva | 4. Tamara | 2. Splendora | 10. Praying | 2. Splendora |
BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT
#1 Motorious gets the nod as the 7-2 morning line favorite, but our ‘cappers aren’t having any of it. The six of them land on four different horses on top, and none of ’em picks Motorious, who was fifth in this race a year ago… Two horses — #3 Arizona Blaze (5-1), a Group 1 winner in Ireland, and #6 Governor Sam (15-1), third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint — earn two top choices here, while #7 She’s Quality (20-1), multiple group placed in Europe, and #10 Shisospicy (6-1), 4-for-5 on the turf, get one each…
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Joseph Aiello | Gary Quill | Eric Rubin | Nick Hahn | |
| 1st | 3. Arizona Blaze | 6. Governor Sam | 10. Shisospicy | 7. She’s Quality | 6. Governor Sam | 3. Arizona Blaze |
| 2nd | 1. Motorious | 8. Ag Bullet | 8. Ag Bullet | 1. Motorious | 1. Motorious | 8. Ag Bullet |
| 3rd | 11. Bucanero Fuerte | 10. Shisospicy | 1. Motorious | 3. Arizona Blaze | 2. Reef Runner | 10. Shisospicy |
BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT
#10 Bentornato (5-2), second in this race a year ago, is the morning line favorite but has made just one start since that effort, and our ‘cappers are inclined to look elsewhere. In fact, they land on six different horses on top, including one who lands on defending champ #12 Straight No Chaser (8-1), making his second start since early April… The race includes some familiar faces for Mid-Atlantic racing folks: this year’s Charles Town Classic winner #2 Banishing (15-1); #4 Patriot Spirit (30-1), winner of the Reigh Count at Colonial Downs this summer; and the last two winners of the Grade 2 Gallant Bob at Parx in Bentornato (2024) and 2025 champ #13 Mad House (30-1)…
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Joseph Aiello | Gary Quill | Eric Rubin | Nick Hahn | |
| 1st | 12. Straight No Chaser | 4. Patriot Spirit | 2. Banishing | 11. Mullikin | 1. Kopion | 7. Imagination |
| 2nd | 10. Bentornato | 14. Whatchatalkinabout | 10. Bentornato | 3. Lovesick Blues | 11. Mullikin | 1. Kopion |
| 3rd | 1. Kopion | 13. Mad House | 1. Kopion | 1. Kopion | 9. American Stage | 4. Patriot Spirit |
BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF
Maryland-bred #8 Seismic Beauty (8-5) is the morning line fave and has won three straight and four of seven overall, but most of our ‘cappers are looking elsewhere… Four of ’em land on #12 Dorth Vader (5-1), winner of the G1 Ogden Phipps earlier this year, and another picks 2024 G2 Black-Eyed Susan winner #10 Gun Song (30-1)… Also here: #3 Clicquot (10-1), winner of the G1 Cotillion; #9 Majestic Oops (30-1), winner of the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth in June; Cathryn Sophia winner #11 Dry Powder (20-1), who finished second in the Cotillion; and #13 Regaled (30-1), dominant winner of the G3 Delaware Handicap last out…
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Joseph Aiello | Gary Quill | Eric Rubin | Nick Hahn | |
| 1st | 8. Seismic Beauty | 10. Gun Song | 12. Dorth Vader | 12. Dorth Vader | 12. Dorth Vader | 12. Dorth Vader |
| 2nd | 12. Dorth Vader | 8. Seismic Beauty | 8. Seismic Beauty | 1. Nitrogen | 4. Scylla | 8. Seismic Beauty |
| 3rd | 7. Gin Gin | 13. Regaled | 2. Sarawak Rim | 5. Scottish Lassie | 8. Seismic Beauty | 3. Clicquot |
BREEDERS’ CUP TURF
The turf races generally run through the European horses, and this one appears no different… Look for defending champ #1 Rebel’s Romance (5-2) and #8 Minnie Hauk (8-5), the 3-year-old filly who was second by a head in the Group 1 L’Arc de Triomphe against older males, to consume most of the betting public’s attention…
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Joseph Aiello | Gary Quill | Eric Rubin | Nick Hahn | |
| 1st | 1. Rebel’s Romance | 14. Ethical Diamond | 1. Rebel’s Romance | 8. Minnie Hauk | 6. Wimbledon Hawkeye | 9. Gold Phoenix |
| 2nd | 8. Minnie Hauk | 1. Rebel’s Romance | 8. Minnie Hauk | 3. Amiloc | 10. El Cordobes | 1. Rebel’s Romance |
| 3rd | 2. Goliath | 5. Rebel Red | 10. El Cordobes | 1. Rebel’s Romance | 8. Minnie Hauk | 10. El Cordobes |
BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC
The scratch of morning line favorite Sovereignty opens this race up quite a bit, and our ‘cappers respond accordingly: by picking five different horses on top… #5 Forever Young (6-1), the Japanese-bred who was third in this race a year ago a few months after a near-miss third in the Kentucky Derby, is the lone runner to have two ‘cappers pick him on top… Maryland-bred #8 Mindframe (10-1) carries Midlantic hopes… The race also includes defending champ #7 Sierra Leone (8-1) and a pair we’ve seen in the Mid-Atlantic in this year’s Pennsylvania Derby winner #2 Baeza (15-1) and Preakness and Haskell champ #9 Journalism (10-1)…
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Joseph Aiello | Gary Quill | Eric Rubin | Nick Hahn | |
| 1st | 7. Sierra Leone | 5. Forever Young | 1. Fierceness | 8. Mindframe | 2. Baeza | 5. Forever Young |
| 2nd | 8. Mindframe | 1. Fierceness | 5. Forever Young | 5. Forever Young | 5. Forever Young | 10. Antiquarian |
| 3rd | 1. Fierceness | 8. Mindframe | 7. Sierra Leone | 1. Fierceness | 7. Sierra Leone | 1. Fierceness |
BREEDERS’ CUP MILE
Back to the turf for the Mile and a race in which last year’s runner-up #7 Johannes (8-1) and show horse #2 Notable Speech (5-2) return, with the latter the morning line favorite… Trainer Graham Motion’s South African connection provides him #1 One Stripe (30-1), whose North American bow was a bland fifth-place finish in the G1 Woodbine Mile… #5 Program Trading (10-1), beaten favorite in the ’23 Grade 3 Virginia Derby, will carry Flavien Prat for trainer Chad Brown…
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Joseph Aiello | Gary Quill | Eric Rubin | Nick Hahn | |
| 1st | 2. Notable Speech | 2. Notable Speech | 2. Notable Speech | 1. One Stripe | 4. The Lion In Winter | 3. Sahlan |
| 2nd | 7. Johannes | 13. Qirat | 7. Johannes | 13. Qirat | 10. Jonquil | 8. Formidable Man |
| 3rd | 4. The Lion In Winter | 7. Johannes | 10. Jonquil | 2. Notable Speech | 2. Notable Speech | 5. Program Trading |
BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE
Defending champ #6 Full Serrano (7-2) looks for a repeat, but he’ll have to tackle the talented #3 Nysos (8-5), the Bob Baffert trainee whose lone defeat, by a neck, came to Mindframe in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs off a 15-month layoff… #9 Touch of Destiny (20-1) is an intriguing longshot, having run up six facile wins in Uruguay to start his career…
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Joseph Aiello | Gary Quill | Eric Rubin | Nick Hahn | |
| 1st | 6. Full Serrano | 7. Citizen Bull | 9. Touch of Destiny | 3. Nysos | 2. Goal Oriented | 6. Full Serrano |
| 2nd | 9. Touch of Destiny | 1. Will Take It | 6. Full Serrano | 10. White Abarrio | 8. Chancer McPatrick | 4. Mystik Dan |
| 3rd | 10. White Abarrio | 4. Mystik Dan | 3. Nysos | 6. Full Serrano | 10. White Abarrio | 3. Nysos |
BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF
A contentious group of distaffers close the card in a race that’s a bit of a puzzle: most of these intersperse good and bad outings… #5 Gezora (7-2) gets the nod as morning line favorite, but our ‘cappers look elsewhere, with three of them landing on #9 Cinderella’s Dream (9-2), a fast-closing second in this race a year ago, and two others on #6 Diamond Rain (6-1), a group winner at Newcastle two back…
| Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | Joseph Aiello | Gary Quill | Eric Rubin | Nick Hahn | |
| 1st | 9. Cinderella’s Dream | 1. Mission of Joy | 6. Diamond Rain | 9. Cinderella’s Dream | 9. Cinderella’s Dream | 6. Diamond Rain |
| 2nd | 5. Gezora | 7. Be Your Best | 13. She Feels Pretty | 14. See The Fire | 6. Diamond Rain | 13. She Feels Pretty |
| 3rd | 13. She Feels Pretty | 14. See The Fire | 9. Cinderella’s Dream | 12. Bellezza | 14. See The Fire | 5. Gezora |
OUR HANDICAPPERS ARE:
- Gary Quill, co-host of Better Betting podcast and former The Racing Biz Maryland handicapper
- Derby Bill Watson, legendary former Colonial Downs on-air analylyst
- Joseph Aiello handicaps Saratoga for The Racing Biz.
- Ted Black is the Charles Town correspondent for The Racing Biz.
- Eric Rubin hosts the Better Betting podcast.
- Nick Hahn is the author of the eponymous Nick’s Picks handicapping Colonial Downs for The Racing Biz.
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