Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 18, 2025 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 18, 2025

Nick Hahn
July 17, 2025

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2025: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME: 4:00 p.m. EDT
RACES: 9
CARRYOVERS: None

RACE 1

It was made pretty clear yesterday that the traditional bias of speed holds on the dirt but in a two-year-old field, who has it?

1. Glancing My Way	Gallardo gets the mount on a Gormley filly that will be leaning into the rail quickly and look not to succumb the pace.
2. Knickoletta	If Glancing My Way doesn’t jump out first, Russell’s Knicks Go filly stands to benefit most.
6. Thirst for Hope	Only one of two fillies in the field with a start, but that closing effort may not fit here well.

RACE 2

Seven Virginia-breds line up for a turf route in the Edward P. Evans, named for the former leading breeder in Virginia.

6. King Covee	Schoenthal’s gelding, no slouch in sprints, has decent outings going two turns, too.
7. Sendero	Certainly has an affection for the Colonial Downs turf and comes in off a nice win on the Louisiana turf.
5. Repo Rocks	The last race on the turf for Repo Rocks, a Virginia champion, was in this race last year, finishing fourth.

RACE 3

Two-year-old males sprint a little farther than most, with only two having racing experience, but haven’t shown speed.

6. Swerve	Tonalist-sired first timer had a “get to know Colonial” workout after some morning fireworks at Keeneland for Desormeaux.
7. American Tapit	Another with a bullet work at Keeneland shows some speedy ability that may be enough along with the Triple Crown-winning lineage.
5. Channel the Music	Duarte’s colt showed some heart in the stretch of his first start, a muddy one at Monmouth. Karamanos gets the call.

RACE 4

Maiden claimers without much success on the dirt turn to a turf sprint.

4. Shear Magic	After a pretty sharp outing in a deep turf field, maybe dismiss the last two dirt starts in 2024 for a debut on turf in 2025.
8. Mamba Mindset	Tomlinson figure may disagree but race history might suggest a switch to turf in his last start worked, outfinishing one other here.
3. Habana Boy	New trainer, new venue, new jockey, new surface for Munoz’s four-year-old colt that drops a little in class.

RACE 5

King Covee is cross-entered in both stakes tonight. The Punch Line is loaded with past Colonial Downs turf winners.

6. Determined Kingdom	With a win, turf sprinter Determined Kingdom will have four straight Punch Lines plus a stakes win at Colonial Downs in each of the last five years: unprecedented.
4. Virginia Fitz	Cooney’s gelding in a deep field was moving late on the winner in his 2025 debut. Returns the X-man today.
2. Stormy Flight	Despite being only three years old, Smith’s gelding has seen tougher competition than many of these older horses.

RACE 6

Only one of these 11 two-year-olds has a start. None of these turf sprinters has a start on the turf. Lineage matters.

8. Golf Cart Ryder	Even on the turf, gate speed will be critical as “two-year-olds do not pass.” Hard Spun, this one’s sire, certainly had speed.
4. Longhi	Motion’s two-year-old has been leisurely at Fair Hill, but don’t toss a Wertheimer et Frere homebred.
7. Noahs Pride	Munoz’s colt has been sharp in the Colonial and Ocala mornings and is sired by Knicks Go.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
Check out the jockey and trainer standings here.
Trainer Mark Casse earned the 4,000th win of his career when It’s Witchcraft ($7.60) won an allowance Thursday with Antonio Gallardo in the irons. Casse’s charges have over $260 million in purse earnings. He’s won the Preakness, with War of Will, and the Belmont, with Sir Winston, to go with six individual Breeders’ Cup races…
Rider Graham Watters won two of the three jumps races conducted Thursday…
Jockey Mychel Sanchez won a pair Thursday. He took a maiden claimer aboard Sweet Tone ($12.20) for trainer Woodberry Payne and then an allowance/optional claimer on Simply Stated ($8.80) for trainer Mike Trombetta…

RACE 7

Twelve Virginia-restricted female maiden claimers go two turns on the turf, nearly all having decent results in a limited number of starts.

10. Working On It	Last year’s Sept 6 start at Colonial could be key here: when at this level this four-year-old filly has closing kick.
2. Radiant Tones	Milosevic’s filly will be tough on the lead when the lead has been tough on the turf. Has good results in recent deep field starts.
1. Love Saga	McDermott hands the reigns to Conner for veteran that he usually rides himself over jumps.

RACE 8

In a turf sprint with 12 “non-winners other than,” beware of challengers coming off the AE list.

1. J Z’s Last Schance	If you are wondering, the trainer is a cousin of Maggie’s, and has a filly with closing kick that has just missed twice at Laurel.
10. Worth a Dime	Will likely be moving at the same time JZ’s does, and capable of delivering a similar result.
12. Silver Trinket	May also be part of the calvary charge coming out of the turn. Russell switching to turf may have been the winning difference.

RACE 9

Non-winners of two male turf routes in a finale claiming race that is well-balance with frontrunners, stalkers and closers.

1. Keen Surge	Perhaps one of those family winner’s circle pics for Centeno with a Keen Ice gelding that doesn’t run poorly on the turf.
8. Better Watch It	A four-year-old running well of late is one of two Meyers entries. Much improved in 2025.
7. Gamblin George	Hard to overlook the Beyer figs of Kelley’s four-year-old colt with nice turf lineage and Gallardo aboard.