Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 17, 2025 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 17, 2025

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Nick Hahn
July 16, 2025

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2025: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME: July 17/10:45 a.m. (steeplechase), 12:30 p.m. (flat)
RACES: 12
CARRYOVERS: Pick 6, $6,187

RACE 1

The first steeplechase contest of the meet features 10 maidens but only a few with racetrack jump experience.

2. Tea With Edgar	Other than Love Forever, the only other one in the field to be in the money, which he did twice on the nonfirm going.
1. Love Foreverafter	Ran even with Exculpate after the last jump at Colonial last summer over the firm going. Tougher if firm turf today.
7. Northern Tick Tock	No match for the winner in his first jump try but managed to make a bid and returns Mulqueen.

RACE 2

This steeplechase handicap features mostly one-time jump winners. Once over the last backstretch jump, the race is on.

3. Dante’s Fire	Look for a rematch of the Willowdale meeting with Roja Redemption to reappear, in a venue where Morris’ gelding has a win.
2. Roja Redemption	Riverdee runner reunites Watters to his 10+ length winner in lesser known Berryville, looking to produce a speedy finish
1. Final Opportunity	With a sire named Hoppertunity, it’s no surprise this one was a maiden winner in his first attempt over jumps at Malvern.

RACE 3

This steeplechase maiden features some with many jump starts and some with none; look for those that are in between.

9. Awesome Man	Jockey Dwan was nearly an awesome man moving on the winner late in a deep field at Laurel. Tough if as awesome today.
8. Derby Street	Wyatt’s gelding wasn’t the only one moving on Holey Moley at Laurel and also returns his rider, Graham Watters.
3. Cadogan Place	After four starts on the English flats, this son of Frankel tries the jumps after just missed at two miles.

RACE 4

Looking for their second win, six are entered for six furlongs on the dirt for Virginia restricted claimers void of flashy gate speed.

3. Candycrumbs	Trever McCarthy got one of his last career wins at Colonial with a late charge in the Hickory Tree Stakes. More forward today.
1. Nola Boss	Russell’s gelding will have a class edge but won’t be in contention late unless in contention early on.
2. Hurricane Jim	After a muddy seven-furlong win in late May, Jones’s gelding took a bit of a beating in allowance company. Better level today.

RACE 5

All female maidens in this dirt route are three-years-old, and the winner of an emerging speed duel should prevail.

1. Miss Authentic	Curtis has raced Kenneally’s filly at four different tracks, usually for second place. Will be tough on the lead today.
2. Field Song	McPeek has two horses dropping in class from Churchill Downs but only one with Karamanos aboard.
4. Awesome McKinzie	The 1 1/16-mile trip is still one turn at Colonial, which makes the May start of Keefe’s new resident intriguing.

RACE 6

Despite their age, the female dirt sprinting claimers are all two-time winners. Look for a charge coming out of the gate.

1. Fair Trade	Bailes had a great first week and comes back with Araujo after delivering a win as the favorite by seven lengths in June.
4. Cajun Expectation	Hester’s mare is the only female in the field with a win at Colonial, which happened this weekend last year.
6. Humor Sense	As good as it looks on paper, the distance hasn’t worked for Ochoa’s mare in the past, but she hasn’t run it in a while.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
Check out trainer and jockey stats here.
Paco Lopez won twice to take the top spot among riders with six wins at the meet. He won aboard Falfurrias ($8.20) for trainer Steve Klesaris and on Antisocial ($6.00) for Jorge Duarte, Jr.
Bailintin and Jevian Toledo blew up the toteboard to win the day’s featured allowance/optional claimer. Bailintin rallied from mid-pack to win the one-mile contest in 1:34.46, paying $91.00 to her few backers. The Girvin filly is trained by Jonathan Maldonado.

RACE 7

Twelve turf male maiden milers chase a $40,000 purse in a Virginia-restricted opportunity, the residency program contributing.

1. Musical Entourage	(here we go…) Godsey gelding has good finishes in deep fields and a Tomlinson rating that barks turf that he finally sees.
7. Efficacy	A little class drop for Meyers’ gelding that scores consistent Beyers that stand out in this field.
3. Sweet Tone	Might get a little taste of how the NY breeding program fits with Woodberry Payne’s class dropper warming to the turf.

RACE 8

Female nonwinners of two go 1 1/16 on the turf. Shorter race histories are usually preferred, Beyers say otherwise.

6. Rhaenys	Bounced back from a Kentucky Downs debut to win on the Woodbine synthetic. Curtis takes over from fellow European Dettori.
7. Synergism	In her 2025 debut Russell’s three-year-old grey returns to the turf where she broke her maiden after giving up the lead.
4. La Cantera	There are several veterans here with similar Beyers but if you can dismiss the last race, Joseph’s filly may have the best.

RACE 9

More quantity wins may not mean quality wins in this Virginia-restricted race of females sprinting on the dirt.

4. Nancy Mary	Carrasco picked up the three-year-old’s mount after the win and has been getting closer to another one with each start.
8. Itsamonstamash	Robb’s filly might have been overmatched at Colonial this March but has won two races since at two different tracks.
7. Society Ball	Despite winning a two-horse race in her last start, Russell’s filly scored a big Beyers figure on a surface listed good.

RACE 10

Twelve female allowance/optional claimers pack the gate in a turf sprint with two solid AE’s waiting in the wings.

7. Lil’ Regard	It’s hard to close from 10th in a turf sprint but that’s what Russell’s undefeated filly likes to do, and there will be speed upfront.
10. Golden Rocket	The mare that may earn the speed lead is Ness’s runner, who seems like a different horse on the turf.
9. Cavalier Cupid	If you believe in horses for courses, then Nagle’s Keswick Stakes winner in 2021 is undefeated at Colonial Downs.

RACE 11

Most of these nonwinners of two lifetime fillies going a turf mile have displayed a clear turf preference even at stakes levels.

2. Don’t Jinx It	Clement set up Colonial with a nice win at Delaware. His sire, Kitten’s Joy, rocketed his career in the 2004 Virginia Derby.
9. Ambaya	A sharp debut for trainer Thomas for the Strawbridge home-bred at a mile on the Indy turf. How’s the encore look?
3. Boujee Bubblez	What a sharp turnaround in a switch to turf for McMahon’s filly also over the Delaware turf prior to the Colonial meet.

RACE 12

The finale features turf milers in a starter allowance plenty of stalkers looking to pounce on whoever goes out first.

5. Mr Flowers	Ness sets Karamanos on a Nyquist late developer that moves in on the margin in nearly all recent starts.
10. Primed to Go	About as consistent five outings can be in recent starts for Duarte’s colt that works in a win now and then.
4. Naptown	The sharp turn from stakes company to the claiming ranks led Boyce’s mount today to win his last two.