Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 16, 2025 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 16, 2025

The Biz
July 15, 2025

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2025: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME: July 16, 2025/12:30 EDT
RACES: 9
CARRYOVERS: Pick 6, $2,715

RACE 1

On the dirt, a nice blend of filly nonwinners of two sprinters dropping from higher levels or competitive near this level.

5. Somethingwonderful	Aguirre, who brought five-year-old Chambeau to Colonial to win in his first ever start in the Gilpin, returns a speedy filly to the dirt.
1. Genuine Peril	The last jockey to win with Munoz’s filly at Colonial in 2023 was Ashton, who gets the mount today after a drop in class.
8. On a Proud Note	Trombetta starts a daughter of Preakness winner Cloud Computing that won this April and had two good recent starts.

RACE 2

Expect turf with a bit of cut to it to be different for Virginia-restricted maiden milers that haven’t seen anything but firm going.

1. Lonesome Road	May be relying a bit much on the Fair Hill bullet works for Trombetta’s first-time starter, but works have mattered early in the meet.
4. Hope’s Alive	Won’t be alone on the lead at all today but seems to have enough speed where shortening the distance may matter.
8. Gas Alley	Gallardo gets the mount on Lauer’s well-bred gelding, who hasn’t seen the turf yet despite twice having been entered in turf races.

RACE 3

In a turf sprint of open claimers, By the Sey Shore is yet another veteran looking to win in each of his last four Colonial meets.

1. Upsidedown Man	Bumped from a possible three-peat in his last start, Magee’s gelding won from the rail post at Laurel in early June.
3. Cactus	Magee is in a good position to sweep the exacta, having outfinished many here; you could switch the top two.
6. By the Sey Shore	Certainly a sentimental choice, this 9yo showed a spark in his 2025 debut to be a legitimate contender for Trombetta/Karamanos and seeks a fourth straight year with a Colonial win.

RACE 4

Twelve mostly experienced maidens clash in a turf route, most with plenty of turf experience as well.

5. Moonscape	With all his starts on the turf, his last two solid performances at this distance, maybe a little separation from the rest with Curtis.
1. Our Finest Hour	Her first start since a January claim, Bourke’s filly has run well on different surfaces and tracks except a high level at Kentucky Downs.
4. Dark Pool	Don’t let the jump starts divert you. Historically jumpers run well at Colonial and this one ran second at Saratoga

RACE 5

In an allowance/optional claiming sprint on the dirt, a smaller field is full of talent. The two jockeys for Russell trade mounts.

7. Augusta Melody	A poor break at Laurel thwarted a possible three-peat for Russell’s gelding, who has wins at multiple venues.
3. Radical Right	Not far off of Augusta Melody when last seeing each other is this Allen trainee, who will be one of many contesting the early pace.
6. Uncaptured Warrior	Saffie Joseph returns one back after a 9+ length win at Gulfstream and arrives off a career-best Beyer fig.

RACE 6

All two-time winners in this condition going 1 1/8 miles on the greensward, even the three-year-old that doesn’t have to be.

2. Inchon	Motion would likely prefer firmer going so that his Street Sense gelding could duplicate his May second-place finish at Laurel.
10. Falfurrias	Klesaris must have a remarkable win percentage at Colonial but questions about the recent turf starts could be raised.
5. Enahm	Also seeking firmer going is Schoenthal’s gelding who last time on turf was just off the heels of Inchon in that same Laurel race.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
See the Colonial Downs jockey and trainer stats here.
Slam Notion and Winfinity were Saturday stakes winners.
Jockeys Emmanuel Esquivel and Ben Curtis each won twice…
Trainer Ken McPeek got his first two wins of the meet…

RACE 7

A dirt mile for experienced females that doesn’t feature a whole lot of pace-making speed going one turn.

1. Navani	Allen’s filly, a previous Colonial winner in a claim last summer, connected with Karamanos in his last start to win.
5. Runaway Diva	Though his last four starts were on the turf, Hemingway’s filly had her best career race on the Colonial dirt last summer.
8. Aspen Dawn	After a win on the synthetic in her last start, Casse puts his Quality Road filly on the dirt for this first time in her career.

RACE 8

Coming in from everywhere, these three-year-olds were quick in their career to get to their first win and now go a mile on the turf.

7. Magic Pathway	Favored in his last two races, Trombetta’s Quality Road gelding satisfied once, and will likely be the favorite again today.
8. Heaven’s Champion	A little give in the turf may help Kelly’s colt who won his his last start despite a troubled trip.
5. Antisocial	Might benefit by a shorter distance though he only missed by a neck following a maiden score in the mud.

RACE 9

Twelve females slated to go a mile on the turf from moderate claiming starts or restricted starts, a treacherous finale to handicap.

5. Leo Toro	Beyers back up Miller Racing’s new claim that won his last start for Saffie Joseph, comes in fresh after the February win.
10. Sassy Allie	Falcone saddles for a different jockey hoping that Curtis and a change of scenery will nudge forward after several good starts.
7. Precious Medley	Danner’s filly has seen some poor finishes yet solid Beyers in recent start in her transistion back to the turf.