Saturday’s renewal of the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes brings together the top three from the Kentucky Derby, along with the Wood Memorial winner and four others.

At some level, the race breaks down into four and four: four logical contenders and four longshots who’ll need to run a race we haven’t seen yet. Who’ll win? We asked our experts for their picks.

Here are the contenders (and expert picks below):

1. Hill Road (10-1): Rallied smartly to win the Peter Pan and is headed in the right direction… Must step forward again to contend with top runners in here (and a heated pace wouldn’t hurt either)…
2. Sovereignty (2-1): Rallied from 16^th to win the Derby and then bypassed the Preakness: “We had no excuse other than we didn’t feel like it,” trainer Bill Mott told the Daily Racing Form. So, yeah, rooting against… Late-running sort could use a lively pace to unleash late kick to best effect, and if six furlongs go in, say, less than 1:11, watch out…
3. Rodriguez (6-1): One of two need-the-lead types here (Crudo being the other), he controlled the pace to win the Wood Memorial and is a threat to do so again if Crudo doesn’t break or connex decide on a different tactic…
4. Uncaged (30-1): Nothing on this horse’s resume suggests he’s good enough to win this contest… Want something to hang your hat on? He’s 2-for-2 on off tracks and 1-for-1 at the Spa…
5. Crudo (15-1): The other Pletcher runner – with Uncaged – this guy easily won the Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard, though two facts are worth noting: the runner-up, Just a Fair Shake, had lost previously to Pay Billy, who was up the track in the Preakness, and the running time of 1:44 flat was a tick slower than an earlier maiden race on the card… Should be a pace factor if nothing else…
6. Baeza (4-1): Talented sort has been just behind Journalism twice and if the race develops as you’d expect might get the jump on that rival… He’s knocking on the door and likely to knock down some big races in his career; question is if today’s the day…
7. Journalism (8-5): Spectacular performance to win the Preakness after barging through a nearly-nonexistent hole and running down seemingly homefree Gosger… Will likely be a length or two behind Baeza and a similar margin ahead of Sovereignty early, and there’s every reason to think he’ll run well again…
8. Heart of Honor (30-1): Willing despite getting the worst of the trip in the Preakness but will need to take a big step forward to win this contest…

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