How the Belmont Stakes will develop
Joseph Aiello- June 6, 2025
Following a tough second in Kentucky, Michael McCarthy’s Journalism returned to Pimlico as the heavy favorite as Derby winner Sovereignty bowed out. Stuck in heavy traffic at the top of the stretch, it appeared as if Journalism wouldn’t have the space, or the time, to get up and pass the longshot Gosger, running the best race of his career. With a thrilling late move to win, this colt returns once again for the third leg of the Triple Crown to settle the score with Sovereignty as strong contenders Baeza and Rodriguez round out the top contenders.
Journalism (8-5) enters as the morning line favorite in this field of eight and breaks from post seven. His running style has been well established at this point, typically closing from mid-flight. That nearly cost him in Pimlico with some trip issues late, and now he faces much fresher competition as the least rested of this group.
Once again run over a Saratoga track which typically favors speed, this year’s Belmont may differ from last year’s, which saw an incredibly dry track give a major advantage to those on the front end. Dornoch was able to go gate to wire in the first ever 10-furlong Belmont Stakes at Saratoga, as two others set track records at sprint distances that weekend. With rain potentially on the horizon, a softer surface could benefit those coming from mid-pack like Journalism.
After scratching out of the Derby following a Wood Memorial win, Bob Baffert’s Rodriguez (6-1) returns here as the likely pace-setter with an early challenger in Todd Pletcher’s longshot runner Crudo (15-1). These two should battle for the top spot early, and could make things difficult for each other if Crudo is able to pressure Rodriguez. In the Wood Memorial, Rodriguez got away with very little pressure and took advantage of an easy trip, but that may be difficult here with another furlong and a quicker pace if Crudo breaks well.
Following them should be Pletcher’s other entry in Uncaged (30-1) who has two wins in four tries, both on muddy tracks. After a disappointing race in the Peter Pan last time, this one may appear overmatched, but with the surface advantage and positioning, he could be in the perfect spot with the others all preferring to finish from well off the pace.
PICKS
- #7 Journalism (8-5) – A bit more tactical ability than his major rival
- #2 Sovereignty (2-1) – Bypassed the Preakness to await this spot
- #1 Hill Road (10-1) – Needs to take another step forward but easily could
- #6 Baeza (4-1) – Has been right there with Journalism twice
Journalism and Baeza (4-1) should be next, with Sovereignty (2-1) starting in behind them and the typically late runners Hill Road (10-1) and Heart of Honor (30-1) rounding out the rear. Baeza could be one that stays a bit closer to the leaders this time after falling too far back in Kentucky and still climbing up into third, as he has shown form as a stalker, albeit in very small fields.
If the early fractions from the first two end up being quick, coupled with a softer surface, this race could favor Sovereignty who ran his best at Churchill on a sloppy track and has the rest advantage over his main competition in Journalism. Baeza remains the other top challenger depending on his positioning early but will certainly be in the mix. Those two took advantage of quick fractions at Churchill, with Baeza in particular closing well despite a tough trip. A top-flight effort from either runner could be enough to put them in the winner’s circle if Journalism shows fatigue off of his quicker turnaround.
Of the other late finishers, Hill Road appears to be the other that will love the distance as long as Irad keeps him from drifting too far back. Coming off a strong late finish in the Peter Pan, this Chad Brown trainee may be rounding into form at the right time, and could have a favorable set of circumstances here to run his best.
For one of the top speed runners to win, they would most likely need to get free of any pressure within the first half mile. This doesn’t appear to be likely assuming they both break and are keen on capturing the lead. Through his first five starts, Rodriguez has only run winning races from the front, and the more lightly raced Crudo has been in complete control against lesser fields in two straight.
They still should have the leg up on the pair of 30/1 longshots who remain unproven here. Heart of Honor was able to make a nice late move in the stretch in the Preakness in his first try in North America, but left far too much ground to make up and swung wide. Perhaps a better trip gives him a puncher’s chance to end up finishing in the top four, after being a model of consistency when racing in Dubai.
Barring an easy beginning for Rodriguez, this Belmont should be a test of rest versus rust among Derby winner Sovereignty, Preakness winner Journalism, and Derby show horse Baeza. The three top contenders are a step above the rest based on their recent past performances and could get the pace set up and softer surface to thrive.
If Journalism runs his best despite the heavy workload, he is the one to beat here even with the loss to Sovereignty last month and Baeza always on his tail. Hill Road will need to improve some to compete for the final jewel of the Triple Crown, but could be dangerous here at a price if given the right trip.
The Belmont Stakes is the thirteenth race on Saratoga’s Saturday card with a post time of 7:04 EST.
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