An exciting Run for the Roses finish saw Bill Mott’s Sovereignty outduel Michael McCarthy’s Journalism in the mud just two weeks ago. With the quick turnaround, Mott opted to withhold Sovereignty from this Preakness field, with runner-up and post-time favorite Journalism making the trip.

Mark Casse’s Sandman, who finished seventh as the second choice at Churchill, and D. Wayne Lukas’s American, Promise who ended sixteenth, are the other two who enter from the Derby in this year’s field of nine. With plenty of new shooters who prefer to be on or near the early lead, this race could set up for a better result from Journalism (8-5), as less-experienced three-year-olds look to make a splash in their step up into Grade I company. 

The Preakness, with a smaller field, has often favored horses with early speed, with the last two winners going gate-to-wire in Bob Baffert’s National Treasure and D. Wayne Lukas’s Seize the Grey. Those runners were able to set honest fractions but with little early company and pressure, which may not be the case for the pace-setters this year.

Steve Asmussen’s Clever Again (5-1) breaks from post eight off of a comfortable gate to wire win in the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn and may have the most natural speed here. Bob Baffert enters the inside-breaking Goal Oriented (6-1) with just two lifetime starts, including an allowance win on Derby day at Churchill where he led them all the way around. These two should be vying for the lead from the jump, but Goal Oriented did break his maiden from off the pace and may need to adjust his running style to stretch out to this distance. Clever Again also faces some distance questions but was able to draw away in the stretch at Oaklawn last time despite honest fractions at a mile. 

With the chance for three potential early speeds here, it may be difficult for one of them to go all the way unless he gets loose. Both Clever Again and especially Goal Oriented will take major steps up in class, with inconsistency from American Promise hurting his chances if he isn’t able to break immediately to the front. From a past performance perspective, Journalism has the clear leg up on the field here assuming he doesn’t fall too far off the lead and would be a likely winner with anything close to his best. Michael McCarthy trained one of the two off-the-pace Preakness winners of the last decade in Rombauer in 2021, so he has the gameplan for this type of running style over Pimlico’s dirt course. 

The most dangerous of the others could be Todd Pletcher’s River Thames, who flashed potential on the Derby trail with a narrow Fountain of Youth loss to Sovereignty and a show in the Blue Grass Stakes a month ago. With the right stalking trip in the second grouping, this colt may be able to better adjust to the distance if the top three get into a pace battle and tire. Simply running against the best colts of his age group puts him ahead of some of the others, with Gosger and Heart of Honor competing against lesser fields in their most recent races.

Gosger won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes last time out but still faces stiffer competition here in just his second stakes try. That win wasn’t exactly flattered when runner-up Bracket Buster ran seventh – behind Goal Oriented and others – in an allowance on the Derby undercard.

Meanwhile Heart of Honor was not able to get past Admire Daytona in the UAE Derby, and that runner ended up in last in the Kentucky Derby. Outside of an unforeseen scenario, these runners remain with outside chances and would need to show improvement to come from mid-pack to be winners here.

With quicker pace, Heart of Honor could make a late charge with Sandman, but has plenty of questions to answer in his first try in North America even though he has finished no worse than second in six career tries. Sandman has been a consistent finisher in his career as well, but typically leaves far too much ground to make up which would be an issue over this track. 

In a smaller field of nine, Sandman and Journalism will have less traffic to navigate coming from off the pace compared to their Derby trips. Journalism in particular could get back to his best form if the track remains dry and stays close enough to the lead. Tesio winner Pay Billy is the last of the longshots here who appears to be in top form over his last five tries but faces class challenges stepping up from ungraded stakes. Similar to Heart of Honor, this one has the consistency to finish in the mix but needs to put forth a top effort to find himself in the money with a stalking running style. 

The Preakness Stakes is the thirteenth race on Pimlico’s Saturday card with a post time of 7:01 PM EDT.